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Climate collapse

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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2025 at 2:37am
DJ, Climate collapse has close but complex links with pandemics. Animals (and plants)  have to move to other areas to survive or face increasing problems in finding food.
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Antarctica;
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The pressure of the glacier itself will simply become too great during the spring tide next Monday. More icebergs, which lie south of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, are also quietly moving. Until yesterday, these icebergs were still very solid against the seabed.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1760.950.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1760.950.html#lastPost

DJ, Very likely SEVERAL glaciers in West Antarctica breaking up...

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/heat-flux-forecast-to-enter-arctic-early-february-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/heat-flux-forecast-to-enter-arctic-early-february-2025.html ;

A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, run January 25, 2025 06Z by Climate Reanalyzer
The situation has been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a lot of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface. Much of that heat can be pushed abruptly into the Arctic by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right. 

A sudden influx of heat can cause dramatic and rapid sea ice decline, with huge amounts of methane erupting abruptly from the seafloor, all contributing strongly to the further temperature rise, which in turn comes with further feedbacks, such as more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below. 

DJ, The jet-stream going "wild" bringing very cold weather in parts of North America-much to much warmth to the Arctic...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2025 at 2:57am
DJ, Lots of climate experts are alarming people for years...

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html ;
Will humans be extinct by 2026?
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https://guymcpherson.com/ or https://guymcpherson.com/ 

DJ, Tend to go towards "we are living in extra time"....

https://paulbeckwith.net/2023/03/10/can-ecological-economics-let-us-survive-and-reset-adjusting-to-abrupt-climate-system-change/  or https://paulbeckwith.net/2023/03/10/can-ecological-economics-let-us-survive-and-reset-adjusting-to-abrupt-climate-system-change/ 

DJ, Paul Beckwith https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/pld7rv/is_the_concept_of_a_blue_ocean_event_a_real/?rdt=48162 or https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/pld7rv/is_the_concept_of_a_blue_ocean_event_a_real/?rdt=48162 ;

The term “blue ocean event” refers to the waters of the Arctic being ice free. The IPCC predicts, with high confidence, that the Arctic sea will experience ice free summers at the end of the century, or perhaps sooner. Exactly when this will occur is unclear, and it is generally thought that, unlike on-land ice sheets, sea ice does not exhibit tipping point behavior past which melt is irreversible. This interactive piece by Carbon Brief lays this topic out very cleanly and thoroughly.

Regarding the ramifications of an ice-free Arctic, it is important to note that the melting of sea ice has a negligible effect on sea level rise, due to the fact that the volume of water it displaces is about equal to the volume it adds to the ocean as it melts. Sea level rise primarily comes from melting of ice sheets on land, like the ones in Greenland and Antarctica.

DJ, Blue Ocean Event (BOE) risks may be more in the Arctic unable to cool the planet (then in sea water rise). Paul Beckwith did think of BOE...

https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/ or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/ has lots of further links...

DJ, The IPCC is a political club serving the fossil fuel industry claiming there is room for extra CO2...Switching baselines for pre-industrial-a "need for 10 year average" still fails to keep their lies of "staying under 1,5C"...

DJ-My view;
-Global temperature very likely is over 2C+ since the 1700-1750...may be even getting close to +3C "soon"

-Methane eruptions not only increase green house gas in the atmosphere-melt of permafrost may go "that explosive" it could become both a seismic event and release such amount of methane temperatures go up even much faster...

-There is a point in trying to limit CO2 etc. We simply do not have all of the story...Maybe land-ice sliding into the oceans can save us ? 

In general I am very (over ?) pessimistic on climate collapse...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2025 at 12:48am
https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/30/meteorological-institute-knmi-worried-new-reality-erratic-climate or https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/30/meteorological-institute-knmi-worried-new-reality-erratic-climate ;

Erratic. That is the word the KNMI used to summarise the weather in 2024. It is also the direction in which the climate is increasingly moving. The Netherlands is already experiencing more extreme precipitation than it did a few decades ago. “A more erratic climate is our new reality,” wrote director Maarten van Aalst in the annual report The State of our Climate.

The increasing weather extremes are a cause for concern for the institute’s scientists. “We must be prepared for extremes we have never seen before,” warned Van Aalst. He added that there is still a lot of work to be done to better prepare the Netherlands for the consequences of climate change, such as the increasingly rapid rise in sea levels.

The institute previously announced that 2024 was, on average, just as warm for the Netherlands as the record year 2023. The heat record was equaled without a heat wave and with only four tropical days when maximums topped 30 degrees at the national measuring station in De Bilt, which is relatively few. The explanation is that the minimum temperatures were very high. In De Bilt, there was not a single ice day when temperatures remained below zero all day.

There were no ice days in 2023 either. The fact that this happened two years in a row has never happened before since temperature measurements began in 1901. The number of frost days, when temperatures remained below zero for part of the day, was 23 fewer than even last year.

There were plenty of mild days. Wet days too. The KNMI counted 13 days with extreme precipitation with more than 50 millimeters of rain falling locally. That happens more often in the changing climate because warm air can absorb more water vapor than cold air. Between August 2023 and July 2024, the Netherlands experienced the wettest period ever measured.

The number of days with heavy precipitation almost doubled in recent decades, from an average of five to nine per year. Last year, was therefore also an outlier in this respect, although it was not a record. 2021 counted 16 days with extremely heavy rainfall.

It is clear to the KNMI that the climate is changing so strongly due to greenhouse gas emissions. “Twenty years ago, the question was: are we sure that it is due to emissions?” said director Van Aalst. Now, the big question is mainly when the tipping points in the climate will be reached, resulting in even more severe climate change. According to climate scientists, this chance increases considerably above a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees


DJ; https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/global_weirding or https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/global_weirding ; Thomas L. Friedman (2007 December 2) “The People We Have Been Waiting For”, in New York Times[1]:
I prefer the term “global weirding,” coined by Hunter Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, because the rise in average global temperature is going to lead to all sorts of crazy things — from hotter heat spells and droughts in some places, to colder cold spells and more violent storms, more intense flooding, forest fires and species loss in other places.

So the NL story is part of "global weirding"-a process recognized already in 2007...And very likely to get more crazy much faster...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2025 at 3:27am
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Predicted daily peaks for February in the NH significantly increase the chance that the February monthly anomaly for the NH could exceed 3°C! The global monthly anomaly could exceed 2.5°C! January is already breaking all heat records for the NH: up to 0.2°C warmer than last year!

DJ, If you go for a 1700-1750 baseline and look at latest year-not decade...The "new lie" is 1900 is "pre-industrial" and one needs to laak at the last 10 years...So "we are still under 2C+"....

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.250.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.250.html#lastPost ;
dramatic pack disappearance looks is on the cards. waves forecast to average 6m north of Svalbard for @ a week , fierce winds blowing across the weakest ice with Atlantic heat being transported to the pole and beyond . I wouldn't be surprised if extent/area losses were over 500k before recovery begins . This is probably not another 2017 .

DJ, More storms transporting both warm air and warm water to polar regions-increasing melt...We may be getting close to further major tresholds getting crossed...

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Parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida accumulated 10.0 or more inches, recording more snow than many places far to the north, including Chicago, IL! Find out what weather patterns were in place to cause such a rare and historical event:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/historic-january-2025-snowstorm-southern-us or https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/historic-january-2025-snowstorm-southern-us 

DJ-The more crazy the weather/climate the more crazy pandemics...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2025 at 10:30pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxfpgqn6NOo or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxfpgqn6NOo ; 

North America's Ongoing, Ignored Disaster


There is an ongoing disaster in north America which is not only ongoing but getting worse. And despite its geologic origin, it has been largely ignored by the public. This video discusses the sudden changing of many remote streams and rivers from a clear blue to a toxic orange color. This is not due to acid mine drainage or illegal dumping of waste, but instead something worse.

DJ, Melting permafrost means old iron, other layers-so far covered in (very old) ice get in contact with the surface-poisening rivers in the area...And of course it is NOT just a "North American" issue-most permafrost is in EurAsia...

(DJ-Some in the US still unable to even realize the world is larger then the US...US decissions on climate matter-most outside the US ! The US is 4% of the global population, the 4th largest country...even GDP-PPP it -at best-may be #2...)
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Arctic temperature rise goes a lot faster then average temperature rise. So melting permafrost is a fast growing problem. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2025 at 11:44pm
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/sea-ice-loss.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/sea-ice-loss.html ;

Sea ice loss

Global sea ice area was 13.43 million km² on February 2, 2025, the lowest area on record, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from seaice.visuals.earth

What is the difference between sea ice area and extent

Extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Extent can include holes or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone. 

Therefore, sea ice area is a critical measure in regard to albedo. Loss of sea ice area is a self-reinforcing feedback that causes the temperature to rise and further sea ice to melt, thus accelerating the temperature rise. 

Loss in albedo as a result of loss in sea ice is only one out of many feedbacks that come with rising temperatures. As warmer water flows into the Arctic Ocean, Arctic sea ice loses volume, which diminishes its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. 

This means that a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
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There are many further mechanisms that are driving up, if not accelerating the temperature rise. A Blue Ocean Event is often defined as crossing a tipping point that is crossed when sea ice falls below 1 million km² in extent. Doesn't it make more sense to look at sea ice area, rather than at sea ice extent? Antarctic sea ice area was 1.05 million km² on Feb 22, 2023, and was 1.72 million km² on Feb 2, 2025. Will there be a Double Blue Ocean Event 2025? 

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Arctic https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.50.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.50.html#lastPost ;Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.42 million km2, 0.46 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

Antarctic https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4950.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4950.html#lastPost ;Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 2.45 million km2, 0.50 million km2 above the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 11th lowest in the satellite record.

DJ, The Arctic and Antarctic 'models" use extent-not area...Antarctic ice extent is going down fast in the models...

Lots of cold air (and water sometimes-sea/rain/snow) at unexpected places (New Orleans, Sahara) with very high temperatures moving towards the poles...

This 2025 will be more extreme then 2024, 2023...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 2025 at 10:11pm
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/carbon-dioxide-reaches-record-high.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/carbon-dioxide-reaches-record-high.html ;

The daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 428.60 parts per million (ppm) on February 6, 2025, the highest daily average on record. The previous record high was 428.59 ppm on April 26, 2024. To find higher levels, one needs to go back millions of years (see inset).

CO₂ typically reaches its annual maximum in May, so even higher levels can be expected over the next few months. 
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According to NOAA, annual CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 421.08 ppm in 2023, and 424.61 ppm in 2024, a rise of 3.53 ppm and the highest annual growth on record. Monthly CO₂ was 422.80 in January 2024, and 426.65 ppm in January 2025, a rise of 3.85 ppm. The high growth in CO₂ indicates that emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing while carbon sinks are weakening at the same time.

The above image and the image below are both part of an analysis of NOAA data discussed here, as part of an earlier post. The image below shows a trend, based on 2015-2024 annual data, pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in the year 2032.
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The above trend illustrates that the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2032 due to rising CO₂ alone, which on its own could push temperatures up by an additional 8°C. The clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e, so when growth of other greenhouse gases and further mechanisms are taken into account, the tipping point could be crossed much earlier than in 2032, possibly as early as in 2026, as discussed in an earlier post.
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DJ, There is a lot of "methane uncertainty"...a large earthquake may release a lot of it-changing/worsening "the picture" high speed...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.50.html#bot or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.50.html#bot (Arctic);
Projections. (Table NSIDC-Arctic-Area-1)

Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 12.05 million km2, 0.67 million km2 below the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.72 million km2, and 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4950.html#bot or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4950.html#bot (Antarctica) ;

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 2.14 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

DJ, All in all the "climate picture is"...terrible, a horrorstory, pick your name...it is very bad !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2025 at 1:35am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-zLGu2t_e0  or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-zLGu2t_e0 Dr.Gilbz;

Surprise! It’s raining in West Antarctica 😬


Antarctica is famously cold. And snowy. But in a new paper, I show that rain is falling at sub-zero temperatures over the climatically sensitive Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves. Using state-of-the-art modelling, we look at the extreme precipitation that is brought to West Antarctica by atmospheric rivers. But what does extreme snow and rain mean for West Antarctica? Watch on to find out...
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Contents 00:00 - Surprise! 00:30 - Back to West Antarctica 01:22 - Dang extreme precip 02:55 - Freezing rain 04:00 - Rain on snow 04:57 - Implications 05:37 - Thanks
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Check out my Carbon Brief guest post here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-pos... Read the full paper here: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025 Full citation: Gilbert, E., Pishniak, D., Torres, J. A., Orr, A., Maclennan, M., Wever, N., and Verro, K.: Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling, The Cryosphere, 19, 597–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025.

DJ, With lots of further links at the YouTube-link...Very clean air may see rain in stead of snow at -25Celsius...It darkens snow, gets into the snow and can result in ice breaking more easy...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2025 at 1:46am
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/should-people-be-told.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/should-people-be-told.html ;

Should people be told?

The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at.

monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 19 consecutive months (July 2023 through January 2025). The anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).
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While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.31°C on February 10, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

According to an earlier analysis, the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is? 

DJ, People may NOT want to know reality...Governments may try to avoid panic and mass anger...Pandemics are -in part- the outcome of climate collapse...

And both are worsening exponential...
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https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=4329.100#bot or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=4329.100#bot Arctic;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.45 million km2, 0.43 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record. 
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1759.4950#bot or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1759.4950#bot Antarctic;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 2.12 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
DJ, Very likely polar ice may soon be record low...further increasing global warming/heating...Also increasing methane release...rain on snow -less heat reflection...

The amount of heat needed to melt ice is enough to warm/heat up water to 80C...

We live in "extra time"...(better enjoy it...make the best of it !)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 2 hours 32 minutes ago at 7:58am
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/global-warming-to-blame-for-low-temperatures-in-north-america.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/global-warming-to-blame-for-low-temperatures-in-north-america.html 

Arctic warming is disrupting the jetstream...So it may be 0C at the north pole and -40C in the US...And the weather will only get more extreme...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/19/global-glacier-melt-is-accelerating-new-study-finds or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/19/global-glacier-melt-is-accelerating-new-study-finds ;

Ice loss from the world’s glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, a first-of-its-kind global assessment has found, warning that melting may be faster than previously expected in the coming years and drive sea levels higher.

The assessment published in the journal Nature on Wednesday by an international team of researchers found a sharp increase in melting over the past decade, with around 36 percent more ice lost in the 2012-to-2023 period than in the years from 2000 to 2011.

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Overall, researchers found that the world’s glaciers have lost around five percent of their volume since the turn of the century, with wide regional differences ranging from a two-percent loss in Antarctica to up to 40 percent in the European Alps.

On average, some 273 billion tonnes of ice are being lost per year – equivalent to the world population’s water consumption for 30 years, scientists said.

DJ, Extra danger is in melt of water now working as a glue to keep rocks together...It will increase risks of landslides. 
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