Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites

Doomsday Glacier collapse! Time for MORE human intervention??

At, or shortly before, the time of the Second Storegga Slide, a  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_bridge - land bridge  known to archaeologists and geologists as  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland - Doggerland  linked  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain - Britain ,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark - Denmark  and the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands - Netherlands  across what is now the southern  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea - North Sea . This area is believed to have included a coastline of lagoons, marshes, mudflats and beaches, and to have been a rich hunting, fowling and fishing ground populated by  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesolithic - Mesolithic  human cultures. ^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-8 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-gaffney-9 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-10 - Although Doggerland was permanently submerged through a gradual rise in sea level, it has been hypothesized that coastal areas of both Britain and mainland Europe, extending over areas which are now submerged, would have been temporarily inundated by a tsunami triggered by the Storegga Slide. This event would have had a catastrophic impact on the Mesolithic population at the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-11 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-12 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-HillCollins2014-13 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide#cite_note-14 -}

We're going to hear it more often: heat power

Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhae4fUaJMmG9ap8A5MoayS3Mkt9exs8Q3kKikELu8BW6t6IEg9M1pl5DGuPagWNPXu9q70SASsfyRKF-YUdLBEN7fLejEb_iiyEIySsK5FTNTmotQqtFW-ywnPp17E-f-o2GqvF6Job9hL64NacqU3KPUlDbfQckPin8mvjQPIj7-YXZASn6EP4hX5STg/s1200/STA-Dec-7-2024.png">

The red dots in the above image are Copernicus ERA5 global daily mean near-surface (2m) air temperature anomalies Dec. 13, 2022 through Dec. 7, 2024, compared to a 1991-2020 base (left vertical axis) and a 1901-1930 base (right vertical axis). 

The shading indicates El Niño (June 2023 up to May 2024, pink), surrounded by ENSO-neutral conditions and a short, weak La Niña (all blue). 

Two trends are added based on these data (red dots). The linear trend (black) shows a steady, rapid rise. The non-linear trend (red) better follows variations such as El Niño and  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html - sunspots , and it indicates that a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event may have started in December 2024 (in the area with the grey shading).  

-

Mechanisms behind accelerated temperature rise

Recent  https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280 - research led by Helge Goessling  suggests that global warming itself is reducing the number of low clouds, resulting in less sunlight getting reflected back into space. “If a large part of the decline in albedo is indeed due to feedbacks between global warming and low clouds, as some climate models indicate, we should expect rather intense warming in the future,” Helge Goessling  https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/single-view/sprunghafter-anstieg-der-erderwaermung-ist-massgeblich-auf-geringere-rueckstrahlkraft-des-planeten-zurueckzufuehren.html - warns . 

A Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event could be occur soon due to a number of mechanisms, including:
- a drop in albedo as a result of a reduction in lower clouds
- a drop in albedo as a result of reduction in sea ice extent
- El Niño developing in the course of 2025
- sunspots reaching a maximum in the current cycle (predicted to occur July 2025)
- less ocean heat reaching deeper parts of the ocean as a result of slowing down of AMOC
- reductions in sulfur aerosols combined with an increase in black carbon and brown carbon as civilization grinds to a halt

"I think there will be definitely several hundred, perhaps we will come close to a thousand or even several thousand," prefect Francois-Xavier Bieuville said on broadcaster Mayotte la Premiere, after the disaster largely destroyed the shantytowns in which around one-third of the archipelago's population live, as well as cutting off electricity, water and communications links.

Officials had warned earlier that it would take days to know the full toll and counted 14 killed in a provisional list, a local security source told AFP. 

Rescue workers and supplies are being rushed in by air and sea, but their efforts are likely to be hindered by damage to airports and electricity distribution in a territory where even clean drinking water was already subject to chronic shortages.

Nine people were gravely wounded and fighting for their lives in hospital, said Ambdilwahedou Soumaila, mayor of Mayotte's capital Mamoudzou, while 246 more were seriously injured.

Mayotte's 320,000 residents had been ordered into lockdown as  https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241214-cyclone-batters-french-indian-ocean-island-of-mayotte - cyclone Chido bore down on the islands  around 500 kilometres (310 miles) east of  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/mozambique/ - Mozambique .

Its gusts of at least 226 kilometres per hour had "completely destroyed" the territory's many shantytowns, acting Interior Minister  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/bruno-retailleau/ - Bruno Retailleau  said following a crisis meeting in Paris late Saturday.

Electricity poles were hurled to the ground, trees uprooted and sheet-metal roofs and walls torn off improvised structures inhabited by at least one-third of the population.

"It will take several days" to establish the full death toll, but "we fear that it is heavy", Retailleau added.

Retailleau will travel to Mayotte on Monday, his office said, alongside 160 soldiers and firefighters to reinforce the 110 already deployed to the islands from mainland France ahead of the storm.

Medical personnel and equipment were being delivered from Sunday by air and sea, said the prefecture in La Reunion, another French Indian Ocean territory some 1,400 kilometres away on the other side of  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/madagascar/ - Madagascar .

"We are continuing to evaluate the needs of emergency services and the population to organise the schedule" of deployment, the prefecture said in a statement.

'Major damage'

"Everything has been swept away, everything is razed," said Mounira, a woman whose house was destroyed in the Kaweni district in Mamoudzou's east – France's largest shantytown.

More than 15,000 homes are without electricity, acting Environment Minister Agnes-Pannier Runacher has said, while telephone access is severely limited even for emergency calls.

MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. The damage sustained by two Russian oil tankers in a storm caused a spill of oil products in the waters of the Black Sea, the Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport reported on Sunday.

"Today two tankers, Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239, were damaged due to a storm in the waters of the Black Sea. There are 15 people on board of one ship and 14 people on the other. The damage caused an oil spill emergency," the agency specified.

Two rescue tugboats and two helicopters have been dispatched, the agency said.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chido_2024-12-14_0710Z.jpg"> Chido making landfall in Mayotte on 14 December

At least 20 people were killed ^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-11 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-12 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-13 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-14 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-15 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-16 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-17 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-18 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chido#cite_note-19 -}

Comoros

https://www.france24.com/en/tag/france/ - France  used ships and military aircraft to rush rescue workers and supplies to its Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Monday after the island group was battered by its worst  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/cyclone/ - cyclone  in nearly a century. Authorities fear hundreds and possibly thousands of people have died.

Cyclone Chido leveled entire neighborhoods of metal shacks and other flimsy structures when it hit Mayotte, France’s poorest department, on Saturday. Entire hillside villages were reduced to a jumble of snapped trees and piles of corrugated metal and wooden frames of houses. 

Authorities used military-style vehicles to clear trees from roads so rescuers and supplies could reach those in need. The damage – including to the main airport – has left some areas still inaccessible to emergency teams, hampering authorities’ ability to assess the devastation and get basic necessities to survivors. 

French Health Minister Geneviève Darrieussecq said the official death toll stood at 14 but told France 2 television that was likely a major undercount “compared to the scale of the disaster.” 

Electricity supplies and communication lines have been knocked out to large parts of Mayotte, and authorities are concerned about a shortage of drinking water. Meanwhile, the main hospital suffered extensive damage.

People were also starting to go hungry, according to Mayotte Sen. Salama Ramia. She told BFM-TV that many people heading to shelters found dire conditions.

“There’s no water, no electricity. Hunger is starting to rise. It’s urgent that aid arrives, especially when you see children, babies, to whom we have nothing concrete to offer,” she said.

Mayotte, the poorest place in the  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/european-union/ - European Union , is a densely populated archipelago of around 300,000 people, most of whom are Muslim, that sits between  https://www.france24.com/en/tag/madagascar/ - Madagascar  and the African continent. Comprising two main islands, it has been under French administration since 1841. 

Many of its makeshift houses and roads were pummeled by Chido, which brought winds in excess of 220 kph (136 mph), according to the French weather service. It was a category 4 cyclone, the second strongest on the scale, and the worst to hit Mayotte since the 1930s, Prefect François-Xavier Bieuville said.

Climate Scientists are Very Confused.

The warnings given by weather forecasters early last week about the Polar Vortex coming into the USA, took place last night, with temperatures utterly plummeting to below zero in the north central part of the country.   It will keep coming, today.

I warned readers of this website and listeners to my radio show that this was coming and URGED they make preparations.  Now, it's here.  It's happening.

With the kind of wind chill temperatures seen on the graphic image above, this is the kind of cold that kills people.   Stay home.  

If you absolutely _have to_ go out, dress in multiple layers of clothing, including doubling-up on socks.  Wear thermal underwear (long johns) or even sweat pants beneath jeans.  Wear T-shirts, heavier sweater or other shirt.  Make sure you wear a hat and gloves with your heavy winter coat.

Exposed skin can literally freeze within minutes in this kind of cold.  Frost bite is a terrible injury and it can happen very fast in weather like this.  Don't take chances, cover up in multiple layers of clothing if you go out.

Check on neighbors and friends during the day and overnight.  

In areas where the polar vortex HAS NOT YET ARRIVED, you have only hours to prep.  Check you car anti-freeze, and tire pressure.  Make certain any pipes beneath your house are either insulated or wrapped in tape heater.  If you already have tape heaters, plug them in to make sure they work.  

Every minute counts because by tonight, a whole lot more geographic area is going to be covered by this cold.  

https://www.ready.gov/winter-ready - Why should you be #WinterReady?

• Sixty-three percent of temperature-related deaths are  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4629728/ - attributable to cold exposure .

• Home heating is the second leading cause of home fires, and winter is when most home fires happen. 

• Travel during the winter has unique risks, especially if you travel by car.

While I try to maintain a high level of preparedness, every year I find ways to improve my ability to withstand natural disasters and other emergencies (see  https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/11/post-milton-improvements-to-my-power.html - Post-Milton Improvements To My Power Preps ).

You don't have to live on the gulf coast, or on a fault line, for disaster to strike. 

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles has issued a life-threatening, destructive, widespread windstorm warning for parts of Southern Los Angeles, California, starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday morning and continuing until Wednesday evening.

Winds are expected to be 50 mph, with some areas experiencing hurricane-force winds reaching up to 100 mph. Steady winds of 80 mph are also projected, especially in the valleys  which will significantly increase the risk of falling trees and power outages.

This dangerous weather system is expected to create extreme fire danger, with the combination of dry conditions and high winds exacerbating the risk of rapidly spreading wildfires.

Residents are urged to take immediate action to secure property, avoid outdoor activities this is an extreme risk, and failure to prepare could lead to catastrophic consequences

LA Fire Summary:

• Palisades Fire burned 20,000 acres (0% contained), while Eaton Fire has expanded to 10,000 acres (0% contained)

• Newest fire: Sunset Fire in the Hollywood Hills area; Another new fire in Woodland Hills

• Five dead, 180,000 people under evacuation orders 

• Most destructive fire in LA history: Ten of billions of dollars in damage (early estimates) 

• AccuWeather Estimates $135 billion to $150 billion in preliminary damage and economic losses

• Over 5,000 homes, businesses and other buildings have been damaged or destroyed

• Musk Says SpaceX will provide free Starlink terminals to areas hit by LA wildfires

• Arson fears 

“That is really what continues to worry me for the U.S. and Australia as well, and Canada and other places in these areas where we have a lot of people densely located and roads that could be potentially inadequate to allow them safe escape.”

That’s largely what happened when evacuation orders were first issued in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood,  https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/us/california-fire-palisades-evacuation.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share - The New York Times reports . The upscale, hillside area is known for its steep topography and sprawling views over the Pacific Ocean. But the area has few roads leading in and out, and when most people flock to the Pacific Coast Highway, for escape, it became “tantamount to a one way in, one way out community,” Thomas Cova, a professor of geography at the University of Utah, told me on Thursday. 

“The roads are not designed for anywhere near that many people to leave at once, and so you get gridlock,” said Cova, who studies wildfire emergency management. He was particularly struck by the fact that people abandoned their cars to run from the flames, similar to those caught in the middle of the destructive Lahaina fire that burned through Maui in 2023. “People don’t get out of their cars and run for nothing.” 

On December 10, 2024, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2025 season, predicting an average season with fifteen  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming - named storms , seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. ^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-Dec21TSR-3 - The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active and extremely destructive  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season - Atlantic hurricane season , producing 18  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming - named storms , 11 hurricanes, and 5  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_hurricane - major hurricanes ; it was also the first since  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season - 2019  to feature multiple  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes - Category 5 hurricanes . Additionally, the season had the highest  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy - accumulated cyclone energy  (ACE) rating since  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season - 2020 , with a value of 161.6 units.}

Why downplay the need for action?

The 2024 global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average, according to  https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level - WMO’s consolidated analysis  of six datasets. 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxuisl_4qDvIQXTvX_SB1KZMTSIsKhVtXKpeP_AwvvImyu_LMnArpQHPNTgHAnc7r6dGqfzmq_MDJXUZCw-8z5Yvs3QxLLSc8o6bC0Dtm-1EokkchQMUHXnja9hx47DuDDB2dRKrWcdCDahhU5c9rUo96MMhaFDSANu6xPuSD3BdZEgMMhub6wn8FqjY/s627/WMO-2024-temp.png">

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Differences between datasets are mainly due to the ways temperatures are measured, e.g. ERA5 measures the temperature of the air above oceans, whereas NASA and NOAA measure the surface temperature of the water, which is lower. There can also be differences in how temperatures are measured in areas with sea ice - the sea ice can be measured, or the water underneath the sea ice, or the air above the sea ice. Also, in some areas there once was sea ice that has meanwhile disappeared. Different ways of measuring things can raise the temperature record by as much as 0.2°C and even more in case of earlier years, where the margin of error is also larger. 

Importantly, the temperature rise in the above image is compared to the period 1850-1900, which is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial  base, the temperature anomaly may already have been above the 2°C threshold in 2015, when politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged that this threshold wouldn't be crossed.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGsx0MdgsNZvlMaqoci8EY13UsXiKu6RFEhwn11DXGr8JQfG1s3Zt-h27Mtb9p_MOqS37S_B5u4xmQRTCjnP2l81eJOA2IXYydYJ1HibVsFW2RGvV7Nq7D14k2R7Z8xb3jhF1cb-JPkZNqEL_nfkQvYPaE-t_-tOwz8jpkUTvC0lfD4Op0aVvxnydkC-s/s894/February-2024-temperature-rise.png">

[ from  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - earlier post  ]

“Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot", UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres  https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level - said : “It is important to emphasize that a single year of more than 1.5°C for a year does NOT mean that we have failed to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals, which are measured over decades rather than an individual year", WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo adds. 

However, for this argument to hold, the average anomaly would need to fall to under 1.5°C from now. Should we really have to wait for another decade or two, before a confirmation is allowed to be issued that 1.5°C has been crossed. Isn't such a mandate part of downplaying how dire the situation is, an effort to delay the necessary action? Moreover, does such a mandate make sense? 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4-UD1Wqg00lnNskmwlnaIZuv6fGFnwof33DiGKkfepKlM9ulIistGcrepRJdzT8CuC2ZyLBGEZV9P_in8Q7nXHjnGCQ7cV9YmbozBjv5Zp19WFnS4K6AuuWi7AVsNTCVw4E-mkw3UWpXWosD1Ru8KIxgIqsymsQSiHvE66xyN1gE_Om48csQ7KPQFzK0/s1346/2010-2024-anomalies-trends-added.png">

[ click on images to enlarge ]

To illustrate this point, the above image uses NASA anomalies (blue dots) that are conservatively compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base, with data going back to 2010. The image thus shows a 30-year review period centered around January 1, 2025. Eight imaginary years of data have been added beyond existing data, extending the trend into the future (yellow dots). The wide pink trend is based on both NASA existing data and these imaginary data, jointly covering data from 2010-2032. The narrow black trend is not based on imaginary data, it is purely based on existing data, from 2010-2024, showing the potential for such a trend to eventuate when using existing (i.e. past) data only. 

In case such a trend would indeed eventuate, confirmation of the crossing of the 1.5°C threshold should NOT be delayed until all the years of a 30-year period have been entirely completed. In fact, 2°C would already be crossed early 2026. In the course of 2032, a 16°C rise would be reached, while the average anomaly for the period 2010-2032 would be higher than 3°C with still 7 years to go before the 30-year period would be completed. 

Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. see the  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html - extinction page . The image below shows an even steeper rise. 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjssDmEnXi6Lm83dznZBFWxwlyZjDtiLhnMOhME9pFxvKrRUy45kjcdt9XjESlGphs4m-yr_q1HRLu0YbHSva2c18eJR8LZl-uG42FH-pQeJgGh5IYo1TsoxkzwgF5VneJ9aOV5z7lmPPFVWXwRUxfKdx9_e07UQQM46v91tLoMc4VXdfiV6NtfzmmNlz4/s1200/STA-Jan-10-2025.png">

[ temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added ]

If the temperature does indeed keep rising rapidly, the anomaly compared to pre-industrial may soon or already be higher than 3°C, implying that humans are already functionally extinct, especially if no decisive, comprehensive and effective action is taken.

Analysis by Shona and Bradshaw found that, due to co-extinction, global biodiversity collapse occurs at around 5°C heating, as discussed in a  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html - 2019 post  with the warning that a rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026, and that humans who depend on many other species will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.

A recent  https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2023.0321 - study by Joseph Williamson et al.  finds that many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur. 

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyHtXF8Dmbw7x5vfzZCI5UDyyYN4YGRrQf1n_0SGjJhEOyBUZb3mo9d0mF9VWnaH8Ixre4KXIb5n-eQDUoWbj6Lxl36ttum_6jrLFrd-Fva8hufkr3fZuYBwfFWaFUxjL8wj6kRjprVxwCq8SO8XF-kUVuGAr-MfprbgOkvdoKm92OIFszMSXgz3iHBGQ/s1093/Arctic-sea-ice-volume-Jan-17-2025.png">

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

One of the many mechanisms that could rapidly accelerate the temperature rise is an Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The image on the right shows that Arctic sea ice reached a record low for the time of year on January 17, 2025. 

Guy McPherson discussed the consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sK97O9Buqmk - video below , adding that a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control. The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth. I’m not a fan. 

Climate anomaly in Africa: the Sahara Desert is covered with snow

Solar panels above waterways and farms. WIN-WIN!

Europe Weather: Storm Éowyn Coming, With a Generational Snowstorm in the United States

The term “blue ocean event” refers to the waters of the Arctic being ice free.  https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ - The IPCC predicts,  with high confidence, that the Arctic sea will experience ice free summers at the end of the century, or perhaps sooner. Exactly when this will occur is unclear, and  https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2011/03/arctic-sea-ice-and-tipping-point - it is generally thought that, unlike on-land ice sheets, sea ice does not exhibit tipping point behavior  past which melt is irreversible.  https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/when-will-the-arctic-see-its-first-ice-free-summer/ - This interactive piece by Carbon Brief  lays this topic out very cleanly and thoroughly.

Regarding the ramifications of an ice-free Arctic, it is important to note that  https://www.google.com/amp/s/yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/11/loss-of-land-ice-not-sea-ice-more-sea-level-rise/ - the melting of sea ice has a negligible effect on sea level rise,  due to the fact that the volume of water it displaces is about equal to the volume it adds to the ocean as it melts. Sea level rise primarily comes from melting of ice sheets on land, like the ones in Greenland and Antarctica.

Erratic. That is the word the KNMI used to summarise the weather in 2024. It is also the direction in which the climate is increasingly moving. The Netherlands is already experiencing more extreme precipitation than it did a few decades ago. “A more erratic climate is our new reality,” wrote director Maarten van Aalst in the annual report The State of our Climate.

The increasing weather extremes are a cause for concern for the institute’s scientists. “We must be prepared for extremes we have never seen before,” warned Van Aalst. He added that there is still a lot of work to be done to better prepare the Netherlands for the consequences of climate change, such as the increasingly rapid rise in sea levels.

The institute previously announced that 2024 was, on average, just as warm for the Netherlands as the record year 2023. The heat record was equaled without a heat wave and with only four tropical days when maximums topped 30 degrees at the national measuring station in De Bilt, which is relatively few. The explanation is that the minimum temperatures were very high. In De Bilt, there was not a single ice day when temperatures remained below zero all day.

There were no ice days in 2023 either. The fact that this happened two years in a row has never happened before since temperature measurements began in 1901. The number of frost days, when temperatures remained below zero for part of the day, was 23 fewer than even last year.

There were plenty of mild days. Wet days too. The KNMI counted 13 days with extreme precipitation with more than 50 millimeters of rain falling locally. That happens more often in the changing climate because warm air can absorb more water vapor than cold air. Between August 2023 and July 2024, the Netherlands experienced the wettest period ever measured.

The number of days with heavy precipitation almost doubled in recent decades, from an average of five to nine per year. Last year, was therefore also an outlier in this respect, although it was not a record. 2021 counted 16 days with extremely heavy rainfall.

It is clear to the KNMI that the climate is changing so strongly due to greenhouse gas emissions. “Twenty years ago, the question was: are we sure that it is due to emissions?” said director Van Aalst. Now, the big question is mainly when the tipping points in the climate will be reached, resulting in even more severe climate change. According to climate scientists, this chance increases considerably above a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees

Sea ice loss

Surprise! It’s raining in West Antarctica 😬

Should people be told?

While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.31°C on February 10, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmfXxSy_-p7pf6UlmgzKoDuXr9WFGOvPFGPGo4bqsX4FP4PNvtsmCzMUVv-Q7B7GPZ4jfgqEYBdBMs19uyOMczZYeENQppAtc9rsjSBWT8eBlnD2KtE1UTLZu2xDAHW-NotiDRlD098q6YfeG0YcAyPqYzkmB3rVLG6ZEQwbVU7qC2uPHL2MOhYa3W318/s1200/STA-Feb-10-2025.png">

According to an  https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - earlier analysis , the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is? 

Ice loss from the world’s glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, a first-of-its-kind global assessment has found, warning that melting may be faster than previously expected in the coming years and drive sea levels higher.

The assessment published in the journal Nature on Wednesday by an international team of researchers found a sharp increase in melting over the past decade, with around 36 percent more ice lost in the 2012-to-2023 period than in the years from 2000 to 2011.

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Overall, researchers found that the world’s glaciers have lost around five percent of their volume since the turn of the century, with wide regional differences ranging from a two-percent loss in Antarctica to up to 40 percent in the European Alps.

On average, some 273 billion tonnes of ice are being lost per year – equivalent to the world population’s water consumption for 30 years, scientists said.

Greenpeace USA and Greenpeace International are scheduled to go to trial in North Dakota, USA. We are being sued by Energy Transfer – a US-based fossil fuel company that is responsible for the Dakota Access Pipeline – for nearly US $300 million related to the Indigenous-led 2016 protests at Standing Rock. Not only does this SLAPP attempt to rewrite the history of this movement led by the Standing Rock Sioux, but a loss at trial could prove destructive to Greenpeace in the US and have widespread impacts for the climate justice movement all around the world.

Energy Transfer’s SLAPP against Greenpeace is a crucial test of this dangerous legal tactic that, if successful, could be widely applied against peaceful protesters, and indeed, anyone who speaks out or criticises a deep-pocketed corporation. Let’s take a deeper look at the backstory of this lawsuit, the threat posed by SLAPPs, and why this case matters for all of us.

Arctic Climate Collapse! This time it's REALLY flipped!!

Climate models are getting it wrong! What's going on?

El Nino in 2025?

The trends on the image below indicate that temperatures keep rising and that the rise may accelerate soon.

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Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025?

Five of the past six years have witnessed the most rapid glacier retreat on record. 2022-2024 witnessed the largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record. In many regions, what used to be called glaciers’ “eternal ice” will not survive the 21st century, according to reports from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). 

More than 275,000 glaciers worldwide cover approximately 700,000 km². Together with ice sheets, glaciers store about 70% of the global freshwater resources.  High mountain regions are the world’s water towers. Depletion of glaciers therefore threatens supplies to hundreds of millions of people who live downstream and depend on the release of water stored over past winters during the hottest and driest parts of the year. In the short-term, glacier melt increases natural hazards like floods.