PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus

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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2025 at 9:21pm
DJ, I am NOT !!!! any kind of expert-have a limited history(teacher) background...
On this-once-a forum I try to get a very basic-far from perfect-view of "developments".

In my view diseases need a certain background to become pandemics. "Disease-transport-hosts" is optimized by a certain background. 

Wars, disasters, climate collapse do increase risks. Global stability and cooperation may limit pandemic risks. 

The "Spanish flu" without World War One may have been maybe "just a bad flu year"...not the worst pandemic in recent human history. 

In my (limited) view CoViD is -yet- not "as bad" as the Spanish flu...That flu/bacterial coinfection may have killed between 2% to 5% of the global population between 1917 and 1923. 

CoViD may have been able to infect most humans...may have resulted in close to 40 million deaths ("official" number is 7+ million with a positive CoViD test...).  However we have 8,2 billion people so 0,5% of the population dying may be seen as "limited" (and maybe HIV/AIDS ongoing pandemic since 1981 may be also close to 40 million deaths-since 1981). 

There are lots of different view points. I try to find/follow views that I think may matter...

In my view Non Pharma Intervention, masks, eye protection, ventilation-above all information- are basic. Try to limit the spread of disease as soon as possible as good as possible ! R0 <1 !

Vaccines and anti-virals have to play a limited role in pandemics. Virusses (and bacteria) find ways around those steps-so you end up in a race between vaccines and mutations...

"Living with the virus" -in case of CoViD-was a very bad idea ! Flu may result in "herd/group-immunity", CoViD does not !

You need to "balance" pandemic strategies with economy. "Saving the economy" at the cost of public health is criminal !

The climate collapse-pandemic link is complex but clear...Lots of animals/plants in increased stress/pressure finding food...Humans getting more and more in contact with wild life. 

CoViD damages immunity so a.o. Mpox did see a chance to go "global". H5N1 may have seen "room" also because of CoViD-damage in (animal) hosts. "One Health"-humans do NOT live on an island-should be basic ! H5N1 has been around for years-slowly moving towards humans...

I follow lots of sources-still I have my own basic ideas (see above)...not "neutral" but willing to learn...
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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2025 at 9:18am
pandemic alert level still at 1...Maybe not yet the highest but 4 or 5 would be fitting...

CoViD is NOT over, H5N1 most likely mammal-to-mammal spread, TB, measles, Mpox...

The picture is NOT good !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 2025 at 11:49pm
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/;

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks”. The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk of a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region (Figure 4)23. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

FIGURE 4. WHO REGIONS.

FIGURE 4

WHO REGIONS. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of (more...)

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.


DJ, We are facing a multi disease pandemic...In history often pandemics were "multi disease" however with a "main driver"...The Spanish H1N1 Flu did see bacterial co-infections against a back ground of World War 1/Russian/Turkish etc wars...

We NOW face several diseases that can switch/exchange the "leading position"...one week flu might be the max killer, next week CoViD will with Mpox, measles etc. also "wild"...
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Disease "X" will surprise us not only by its speed but also by its damage...IF !!! Disease X shows up it could kill millions before we know/realize what is happening...

The best defenses are keeping disease X out-mask up, eye protection...Ventilation lowers disease levels...Less crowds/mass gatherings help...

And YES-we may be lucky this time...escape from the worst scenario's for now...
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