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Climate collapse

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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jan 2025 at 10:29pm
DJ, Good short video;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6EMJlt_Dsw or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6EMJlt_Dsw Sabine Hossenfelder;

Climate Scientists are Very Confused.


Over the course of 2024, global temperatures hit record highs, yet again. Climate scientists are beginning to worry that temperatures are increasing faster than their models led them to expect. A paper that recently appeared said that the reason for the rapid warming is a reduction in certain types of clouds. If this is correct, and if that’s a trend, it’s very bad news. Welcome to 2025.

(see also; https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html )

DJ, "Science-for-sale" did exclude the models that would bring high economic costs...Changed the baseline for pre-industrial, going for a 10 year average needed to state 1,5C+...

Still 2024 WAS all year 1,5C+ even with all "modifications" to "save the economy"...

Of course nature is not for sale...extreme weather events allready fit with a 2C+ world...However that view means much more action would be needed to let the planet live go on...BAD for profits...

So 2025 is expected to be even more crazy...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 2025 at 10:01am
DJ, We had snow this morning, 10C this evening...

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/polar-vortex-plunged-into-usa-overnight-temp-plummet-to-below-zero or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/polar-vortex-plunged-into-usa-overnight-temp-plummet-to-below-zero ;

The warnings given by weather forecasters early last week about the Polar Vortex coming into the USA, took place last night, with temperatures utterly plummeting to below zero in the north central part of the country.   It will keep coming, today.

I warned readers of this website and listeners to my radio show that this was coming and URGED they make preparations.  Now, it's here.  It's happening.

With the kind of wind chill temperatures seen on the graphic image above, this is the kind of cold that kills people.   Stay home.  

If you absolutely _have to_ go out, dress in multiple layers of clothing, including doubling-up on socks.  Wear thermal underwear (long johns) or even sweat pants beneath jeans.  Wear T-shirts, heavier sweater or other shirt.  Make sure you wear a hat and gloves with your heavy winter coat.

Exposed skin can literally freeze within minutes in this kind of cold.  Frost bite is a terrible injury and it can happen very fast in weather like this.  Don't take chances, cover up in multiple layers of clothing if you go out.

Check on neighbors and friends during the day and overnight.  

In areas where the polar vortex HAS NOT YET ARRIVED, you have only hours to prep.  Check you car anti-freeze, and tire pressure.  Make certain any pipes beneath your house are either insulated or wrapped in tape heater.  If you already have tape heaters, plug them in to make sure they work.  

Every minute counts because by tonight, a whole lot more geographic area is going to be covered by this cold.  


DJ, No this does NOT prove we are going into an ice-age...It underlines disruption of the jet-stream because of (extreme !!!) global WARMING !

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/nws-winter-storm-advisory-winter.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/nws-winter-storm-advisory-winter.html 

Ready.gov is urging everyone to become #WinterReady.

Why should you be #WinterReady?

  • Home heating is the second leading cause of home fires, and winter is when most home fires happen. 
  • Travel during the winter has unique risks, especially if you travel by car.

       (Continue. . . )

Although the prime focus of this blog is emerging infectious diseases, disaster preparedness has always run a close second. 

While I can't say with any confidence that we'll see a pandemic in 2025, it is all but certain that millions of people in the U.S. - and hundreds of millions of people globally - will face some sort of natural disaster in the next 12 months.
 
In 2024, I personally dealt with two hurricanes and multiple prolonged power outages, and for the 3rd time in 7 years, I was forced to evacuate to a friend's house (see With Milton, Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor).

While I try to maintain a high level of preparedness, every year I find ways to improve my ability to withstand natural disasters and other emergencies (see Post-Milton Improvements To My Power Preps).

As we careen headlong into an uncertain 2025, I would urge all of my readers to serious consider their current level of preparedness, and find ways to improve it. 

You don't have to live on the gulf coast, or on a fault line, for disaster to strike. 

With the hope that they may provide some inspiration, you'll find links to a few of my 2024 preparedness blogs below. 
A Personal Pre-Pandemic Plan

#NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness

#NatlPrep: Preparing For Extreme Space Weather

ODNI 2024 Annual Threat Assessment: Health Security

USGS Seismic Hazard Map Update: 75% of Americans At Risk Of Experiencing A Damaging Earthquake
While being prepared does not guarantee you come out of a disaster unscathed, it can go a long way towards increasing your odds. 

DJ, Extreme weather can kill more people then pandemics -mostly-do. Since weather/climate problems=food/water problems...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 2025 at 11:32pm
DJ, Polar Vortex in US/Canada will kill how many cattle, poultry ? Worsening the H5N1 food crisis...
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“Doomsday” Glacier’s Alarming Meltdown Sparks Radical Geoengineering Race

https://scitechdaily.com/doomsday-glaciers-alarming-meltdown-sparks-radical-geoengineering-race/ or https://scitechdaily.com/doomsday-glaciers-alarming-meltdown-sparks-radical-geoengineering-race/ ;

Researchers are divided on the Thwaites Glacier’s stability, with new studies highlighting both its increased vulnerability due to warm tidal currents and its potential resilience against collapse.

As uncertainty looms, radical geoengineering solutions, such as submarine curtains, are being proposed to slow the melt, even as debates intensify about prioritizing emission reductions over technological fixes.


DJ, both time and finance are in the way "submarine curtains" on the scale needed take years, create CO2, and will cost more then "for-profit-NATO-wars"...

My non-expert view; for now "buying time" and limiting damage may be the best options...But the climate collapse is going much faster then "we" can handle...

So maybe "positive feedbacks" will save some of us ? 

Greenland ice sliding into the ocean creating "old style" Arctic Sea Ice cover ? 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ 

At best we may slow down temperature rise...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29122024/these-graphics-help-explain-what-climate-change-looked-like-in-2024/  or https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29122024/these-graphics-help-explain-what-climate-change-looked-like-in-2024/ 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2025 at 10:16pm
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/urgent-life-threatening-destructive-widespread-windstorm-warning or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/urgent-life-threatening-destructive-widespread-windstorm-warning ;

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles has issued a life-threatening, destructive, widespread windstorm warning for parts of Southern Los Angeles, California, starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday morning and continuing until Wednesday evening.

Winds are expected to be 50 mph, with some areas experiencing hurricane-force winds reaching up to 100 mph. Steady winds of 80 mph are also projected, especially in the valleys  which will significantly increase the risk of falling trees and power outages.

This dangerous weather system is expected to create extreme fire danger, with the combination of dry conditions and high winds exacerbating the risk of rapidly spreading wildfires.

Residents are urged to take immediate action to secure property, avoid outdoor activities this is an extreme risk, and failure to prepare could lead to catastrophic consequences


DJ, Yesterday we had a second storm in NL for 2025...So january 6 and allready TWO storms...https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/06/floriane-officially-third-winter-storm-season-second-storm-2025 or https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/06/floriane-officially-third-winter-storm-season-second-storm-2025 ;Storm Floriane brought wind gusts peaking at 108 kilometers per hour so far on Monday, with nearly all of the Netherlands experienced gusts of at least 80 kilometers per hour. Floriane became the second storm already this year, and the third winter storm this season, with the country's North Sea shore battered by extreme winds most of the afternoon.

DJ, In the UK "extreme weather" did bring flooding (again) at least 1 person killed...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Season_effects 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2025 at 11:26pm
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/sea-ice-decline-january-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/sea-ice-decline-january-2025.html ;
The above images by the University of Bremen illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 5, 2025.

Changes to ocean currents can cause more heat to accumulate at the ocean surface, resulting in more Antarctic sea ice melting from below and losing thickness. Where the temperature of the (saline) ocean water rises above -1.8°C (28.7°F), the sea ice will start melting away from below.
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The above image shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 5, 2025, when the sea surface temperature off the coast of East Antarctica was 1.6°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly from 1981-2011 of 1.8°C compared to 1981-2011 (image right).

Arctic; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.0.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.0.html#lastPost ;
Extent 08-Jan is 12,231,744 km2,
an increase in extent of 94,351 km2
which is 56,265 km2 more than the 10 year 5 day running average of 38,086 km2

Extent is still lowest in satellite record, 6k below 2018 in #2 and 97k below 2017 in #3

Antarctic;https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4900.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4900.html#lastPost ;
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.84 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the record 2023 minimum of 1.06 million km2 which would be 33rd lowest in the 47 year satellite record.
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"- AREA is 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000"

Something not quite right here Gero.

DJ, So confusion on Antarctic Sea Ice statistics...(at least at that source). 

Los Angelos-US fires;
xpz
@xpz_2008
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Replying to @thinking_panda
“In exchange for this incredibly dangerous work, incarcerated firefighters earn between $2.90 and $5.12 a day, depending on their duties—and slightly more when fighting an active fire.”https://vera.org/news/from-fighting-wildfires-to-digging-graves-incarcerated-workers-face-danger-on-the-job#:~:text=In%20exchange%20for%20this%20incredibly,when%20fighting%20an%20active%20fire.
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$2-$5 PER DAY That’s what inmates get paid to inhale dangerous smoke and risk their lives to protect you and your property These aren’t rapists or murderers, about 60% of them are incarcerated for nonviolent offenses, like weed These heroes are treated as disposable #LAfire

DJ, The US replaced slavery with over 2 million people in prison (1/4 to 1/5 of ALL prisoners worldwide are in US prisons) and "illegal workers"...So the US now has 25 million "modern slaves"? 

City-fire destroying over 1100 houses-evacuation of 100,000+ people, so far 5 deaths...
Global warming/climate collapse a major factor...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 hours 25 minutes ago at 9:50am
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After millions of views spreading lies about the Palisades firefighters lacking water because of regulations, the boring truth comes late like usual and wont be shared. Here it is: 1 - Reservoirs and water tanks were at normal levels and completely full before the fire. 2 - All 114 city water supply tanks were fully stocked pre-fire. 3 - A 15-hour surge at four times normal demand reduced water pressure. 4 - High demand at lower elevations slowed refilling tanks at higher elevations. 5 - This unprecedented fire was fueled by 8 months of no rain and 85 MPH winds. Water is being brought in continuously. 6 - Even if, like Trump claimed, the protection of the Delta Smelt caused over regulation by California, it's the FEDERAL Endangered Species Act that requires the protection of endangered species like the Delta Smelt and their habitats, not Gavin Newsom or California. I expect the comments to me filled with people personally attacking me for putting this information out. All it does is show that you are unintelligent. Thanks.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/inferno-chaos-la-fire-spreads-hollywood-hills-2000-buildings-destroyed-over-130000 or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/inferno-chaos-la-fire-spreads-hollywood-hills-2000-buildings-destroyed-over-130000 

DJ-This is what climate collapse can be...
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The devastating Los Angeles fires continue to wreak havoc, with the death toll rising to at least six and 180,000 residents under evacuation orders. Authorities report 20 arrests for looting in the chaos. Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted the compounding tragedy for many homeowners, as insurers have stopped offering coverage to some Californians. Between 2020 and 2022, 2.8 million policies were not renewed, including 531,000 in Los Angeles County, leaving many vulnerable to financial ruin.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season 

DJ, That season had 34 people killed in Australia. So far L.A. fires 10+ deaths, damage 50 billion US$+

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2025_Southern_California_wildfires or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2025_Southern_California_wildfires
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 4 hours 30 minutes ago at 12:45am
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It's only a matter of time before a major city is all but razed to the ground - probably somewhere in California or Australia And still we keep burning the fossil fuels and pumping out the carbon Madness

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https://earth.org/2024-hottest-year-on-record-surpasses-1-5c-mark-amid-rise-in-greenhouse-gases/ or https://earth.org/2024-hottest-year-on-record-surpasses-1-5c-mark-amid-rise-in-greenhouse-gases/ ;

Earth’s temperature hit new milestones in 2024: reaching record-breaking levels and rising to more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

That last year was going to be the warmest on record became clear a few months ago, when global temperatures did not fall as predicted after El Niño subsided last June. The weather pattern, which is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central-east equatorial Pacific, pushed global temperatures “off the charts” in 2023, making it the hottest year on record.

But while conditions in the equatorial Pacific returned to normal mid last year, global temperatures did not.

“All of us who made projections at the start of the year underestimated just how warm 2024 would be,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.

DJ, The 1,5C + on the basis of a "pre-industrial" in 1900, other fraud/denialism...

A  lot of climate disasters fit a 2c+ pattern...

Just like "living with CoViD" also "living with climate collapse" is insane...
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Official 1,6C+ world...reality=2c+ world...

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/inferno-chaos-la-fire-spreads-hollywood-hills-2000-buildings-destroyed-over-130000 or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/inferno-chaos-la-fire-spreads-hollywood-hills-2000-buildings-destroyed-over-130000 

LA Fire Summary:

  • Palisades Fire burned 20,000 acres (0% contained), while Eaton Fire has expanded to 10,000 acres (0% contained)

  • Newest fire: Sunset Fire in the Hollywood Hills area; Another new fire in Woodland Hills

  • Five dead, 180,000 people under evacuation orders 

  • Most destructive fire in LA history: Ten of billions of dollars in damage (early estimates) 

  • AccuWeather Estimates $135 billion to $150 billion in preliminary damage and economic losses

  • Over 5,000 homes, businesses and other buildings have been damaged or destroyed

  • Musk Says SpaceX will provide free Starlink terminals to areas hit by LA wildfires

  • Arson fears 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles ;

Los Angeles,[a] often referred to by its initials L.A., is the most populous city in the U.S. state of California. With an estimated 3,820,914 residents within the city limits as of 2023,[8] it is the second-most populous city in the United States, behind only New York City; it is also the commercial, financial and cultural center of Southern California. Los Angeles has an ethnically and culturally diverse population, and is the principal city of a metropolitan area of 12.8 million people (2023). Greater Los Angeles, which includes the Los Angeles and Riverside–San Bernardino metropolitan areas, is a sprawling metropolis of over 18.3 million residents.
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Los Angeles will host the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympic Games, making Los Angeles the third city to host the Olympics three times.

DJ, With L.A. being hit hard, California is being hit hard...

Paul Beckwith https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phkQTiQyj1Y or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phkQTiQyj1Y 

The role of climate change in the catastrophic 2025 Los Angeles fires Summer dry seasons are extending into winter, intensifying the impacts of Santa Ana winds. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/20... LA Times: One of the most destructive firestorms in L.A. history kills 5, burns 2,000 buildings https://www.latimes.com/california/st... LA Times: More than 9,000 structures damaged or destroyed in Palisades and Eaton fires, officials estimate https://www.latimes.com/california/st... Peer-reviewed science: Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth Abstract Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including fash foods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and food risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods. Link (open access): https://www.nature.com/articles/s4301... NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration division (Trump has promised to kill this group): National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) https://www.drought.gov/news/study-fi... Peer-reviewed science: Anthropogenic climate change impacts exacerbate summer forest fires in California Abstract Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop a climate-driven model of summer BA evolution in California and combine it with natural-only and historical climate simulations to assess the importance of anthropogenic climate change on increased BA. Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change as historical model simulations accounting for anthropogenic forcing yield 172% (range 84 to 310%) more area burned than simulations with natural forcing only. We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, a 3 to 52% increase in BA relative to the last decades is expected in the next decades (2031 to 2050), highlighting the need for proactive adaptations. Link: https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/... Interactive Map of Air Quality https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contou... Wikipedia: Santa Ana winds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_A... LA Times: What makes the Santa Ana winds blow https://www.latimes.com/california/st... Wikipedia: List of Wildfires https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of... FlightRadar24 site on aircraft (to watch flights of helicopters and water bombers) https://www.flightradar24.com/33.94,-... Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos.
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