A new pandemic

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CoronaHeadsUp
@CoronaHeadsUp
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US: 1 in 49 people actively infectious with Covid
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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA
@michael_hoerger
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1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)

1 in 49 people actively infectious
Nearly 1 million daily infections
About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating
300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per week

The infections are likely minor underestimates. AZ and OR did not report this week. They were surging, so the lack of data brings down the average. As well, the model gives 80% weight to CDC wastewater data and 20% weight to Biobot, but Biobot took the week off, so this is dependent on observed changes in the CDC data.

It would be wise to add multiple imputation into the model to account for all the non-random missingness during surges, but I won't likely get to that anytime soon.

The peak is looking more and more like 1.4 million daily infections, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's earlier than shown and more like 1.3 million, based on the pattern of retroactive data corrections last winter. If the real-time data really stink, it could come in closer to 1.0-1.1 million. To top 1.6 million, we would probably need some serious immune escape that at present I just don't see happening. However, in past winters, transmission was declining nationally in early/mid January, and back-to-school is a wild card.
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CoronaHeadsUp
@CoronaHeadsUp
·
7h
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Northern Ireland: Elderly patients' five-day wait in 'intolerable' A&E 

"Two elderly patients have been in the emergency department of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast for more than five days."

BBC News
DJ, CoViD and "normal flu" are increasing another health crisis...With lots of HCW-ers looking for a more safe job...Long CoViD=poverty...

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Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1015	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 12 hours 57 minutes ago at 9:40pm
	https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 or https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp < aria-label="Grok s" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> US: 1 in 49 people actively infectious with Covid - Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger < aria-label="Grok s" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> 1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.) 1 in 49 people actively infectious Nearly 1 million daily infections About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating 300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per week The infections are likely minor underestimates. AZ and OR did not report this week. They were surging, so the lack of data brings down the average. As well, the model gives 80% weight to CDC wastewater data and 20% weight to Biobot, but Biobot took the week off, so this is dependent on observed changes in the CDC data. It would be wise to add multiple imputation into the model to account for all the non-random missingness during surges, but I won't likely get to that anytime soon. The peak is looking more and more like 1.4 million daily infections, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's earlier than shown and more like 1.3 million, based on the pattern of retroactive data corrections last winter. If the real-time data really stink, it could come in closer to 1.0-1.1 million. To top 1.6 million, we would probably need some serious immune escape that at present I just don't see happening. However, in past winters, transmission was declining nationally in early/mid January, and back-to-school is a wild card. - CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp · 7h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> Northern Ireland: Elderly patients' five-day wait in 'intolerable' A&E "Two elderly patients have been in the emergency department of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast for more than five days." BBC News DJ, CoViD and "normal flu" are increasing another health crisis...With lots of HCW-ers looking for a more safe job...Long CoViD=poverty...

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1015	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 12 hours 49 minutes ago at 9:48pm
	Harry Spoelstra reposted Danielle Beckman @DaniBeckman · 23h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> I still remember the first time I saw #SARSCoV2 in the brain in the microscope, back in 2021. I was supposed to be looking at brains with Alzheimer, the neuroinflammation is similar. I knew #NeuroCovid was going to be pretty bad. We are just starting to see how much. #LongCovid DJ, if (only) 1-in-10 CoViD infections results in Long CoViD; and a realistic number of infections in humans by now may be over 4 billion...(so over 50% of ALL humans !!!) then 400 million people would be dealing with Long CoViD. Not all Long CoViD cases mean unable to work-some indications 20%-33% of cases... However if you allow MILLIONS of new CoViD cases per day you allow 100,000's of Long CoViD cases per day...And we may not even see the longer term damage... CoViD very likely kills via cancers, heart/brain damage, diabetes etc. Again (Long) CoViD and Flu is a bad-unwelcome-combination. Without CoViD damaging immunity Mpox would not have gone global...Measles a new growing risk-maybe able to spread in a group that did have measles earlier but immunity against it damaged ? Over-focus on H5N1 is unwise and unwelcome ! Certainly when that brings ignoring CoViD !!!