This forum

Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Create New Poll Printable Version Translate Topic

   DJ, I am NOT !!!! any kind of expert-have a limited history(teacher) background...On this-once-a forum I try to get a very basic-far from perfect-view of "developments".

In my view diseases need a certain background to become pandemics. "Disease-transport-hosts" is optimized by a certain background. 

Wars, disasters, climate collapse do increase risks. Global stability and cooperation may limit pandemic risks. 

The "Spanish flu" without World War One may have been maybe "just a bad flu year"...not the worst pandemic in recent human history. 

In my (limited) view CoViD is -yet- not "as bad" as the Spanish flu...That flu/bacterial coinfection may have killed between 2% to 5% of the global population between 1917 and 1923. 

CoViD may have been able to infect most humans...may have resulted in close to 40 million deaths ("official" number is 7+ million with a positive CoViD test...).  However we have 8,2 billion people so 0,5% of the population dying may be seen as "limited" (and maybe HIV/AIDS ongoing pandemic since 1981 may be also close to 40 million deaths-since 1981). 

There are lots of different view points. I try to find/follow views that I think may matter...

In my view Non Pharma Intervention, masks, eye protection, ventilation-above all information- are basic. Try to limit the spread of disease as soon as possible as good as possible ! R0 <1 !

Vaccines and anti-virals have to play a limited role in pandemics. Virusses (and bacteria) find ways around those steps-so you end up in a race between vaccines and mutations...

"Living with the virus" -in case of CoViD-was a very bad idea ! Flu may result in "herd/group-immunity", CoViD does not !

You need to "balance" pandemic strategies with economy. "Saving the economy" at the cost of public health is criminal !

The climate collapse-pandemic link is complex but clear...Lots of animals/plants in increased stress/pressure finding food...Humans getting more and more in contact with wild life. 

CoViD damages immunity so a.o. Mpox did see a chance to go "global". H5N1 may have seen "room" also because of CoViD-damage in (animal) hosts. "One Health"-humans do NOT live on an island-should be basic ! H5N1 has been around for years-slowly moving towards humans...

I follow lots of sources-still I have my own basic ideas (see above)...not "neutral" but willing to learn...

Author	Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Create New Poll Printable Version Translate Topic
Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Online Points: 1539	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 28 Jan 2025 at 9:21pm
	DJ, I am NOT !!!! any kind of expert-have a limited history(teacher) background... On this-once-a forum I try to get a very basic-far from perfect-view of "developments". In my view diseases need a certain background to become pandemics. "Disease-transport-hosts" is optimized by a certain background. Wars, disasters, climate collapse do increase risks. Global stability and cooperation may limit pandemic risks. The "Spanish flu" without World War One may have been maybe "just a bad flu year"...not the worst pandemic in recent human history. In my (limited) view CoViD is -yet- not "as bad" as the Spanish flu...That flu/bacterial coinfection may have killed between 2% to 5% of the global population between 1917 and 1923. CoViD may have been able to infect most humans...may have resulted in close to 40 million deaths ("official" number is 7+ million with a positive CoViD test...). However we have 8,2 billion people so 0,5% of the population dying may be seen as "limited" (and maybe HIV/AIDS ongoing pandemic since 1981 may be also close to 40 million deaths-since 1981). There are lots of different view points. I try to find/follow views that I think may matter... In my view Non Pharma Intervention, masks, eye protection, ventilation-above all information- are basic. Try to limit the spread of disease as soon as possible as good as possible ! R0 <1 ! Vaccines and anti-virals have to play a limited role in pandemics. Virusses (and bacteria) find ways around those steps-so you end up in a race between vaccines and mutations... "Living with the virus" -in case of CoViD-was a very bad idea ! Flu may result in "herd/group-immunity", CoViD does not ! You need to "balance" pandemic strategies with economy. "Saving the economy" at the cost of public health is criminal ! The climate collapse-pandemic link is complex but clear...Lots of animals/plants in increased stress/pressure finding food...Humans getting more and more in contact with wild life. CoViD damages immunity so a.o. Mpox did see a chance to go "global". H5N1 may have seen "room" also because of CoViD-damage in (animal) hosts. "One Health"-humans do NOT live on an island-should be basic ! H5N1 has been around for years-slowly moving towards humans... I follow lots of sources-still I have my own basic ideas (see above)...not "neutral" but willing to learn...

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Online Points: 1539	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 07 Feb 2025 at 9:18am
	pandemic alert level still at 1...Maybe not yet the highest but 4 or 5 would be fitting... CoViD is NOT over, H5N1 most likely mammal-to-mammal spread, TB, measles, Mpox... The picture is NOT good !

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Online Points: 1539	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 08 Feb 2025 at 11:49pm
	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/; Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks”. The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk of a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion. Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region (Figure 4)23. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short. FIGURE 4 WHO REGIONS. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of (more...) Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way. DJ, We are facing a multi disease pandemic...In history often pandemics were "multi disease" however with a "main driver"...The Spanish H1N1 Flu did see bacterial co-infections against a back ground of World War 1/Russian/Turkish etc wars... We NOW face several diseases that can switch/exchange the "leading position"...one week flu might be the max killer, next week CoViD will with Mpox, measles etc. also "wild"... - Disease "X" will surprise us not only by its speed but also by its damage...IF !!! Disease X shows up it could kill millions before we know/realize what is happening... The best defenses are keeping disease X out-mask up, eye protection...Ventilation lowers disease levels...Less crowds/mass gatherings help... And YES-we may be lucky this time...escape from the worst scenario's for now...

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Online Points: 1539	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Mar 2025 at 10:09pm
	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fool_on_the_Hill or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fool_on_the_Hill ;The song's lyrics describe the titular "fool", a solitary figure who is not understood by others, but is actually wise - In his authorised biography, Many Years from Now, Paul McCartney says he first got the idea for the premise from the Dutch design collective the Fool, who were the Beatles' favourite designers in 1967 and told him that they had derived their name from the Tarot card of the same name and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fool_(design_collective) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fool_(design_collective) ;The Fool were a Dutch design collective and band in the psychedelic style of art in British popular music in the late 1960s.^[1] They worked closely with The Beatles in London, painting George Harrison's Mini car, John Lennon's piano and a three story high psychedelic mural on the outside of the Apple Boutique on Baker Street (since painted over).^[2] The group was named in reference to the Fool tarot card. - The Fool is titled Le Mat in the Tarot of Marseilles, and Il Matto in most Italian language tarot decks. These archaic words mean "the madman" or "the beggar". DJ, NL has a long history of going its own way..A certain level of tolerance, respecting different opinions...Accepting the idea no one knows it all, is perfect... - I am -still- the only one/most active one on this forum...What does that mean? Room for different opinions-basic to democracy- seems to be very limited..."Social media pressure", "reacting without reading"...lack of decent info may have resulted in a "society in tunnelvision"... trump, AfD, macron/le pen are the OUTCOME of a process...NOT the start... - To get OUT of a crisis it may-sometimes-help to understand what did get us into the crisis...Even if that story is very complex and we may not be able to -ever- understand/find proof of "the 100%" ...Accepting imperfection may be a step forward... Another "way out" is to set goals. Bernie Sanders in the US claiming "public health care is a human right" in that way is trying to find a way out... - The BIG problem however may be that if clever people look around-make up their mind, they may get the feeling as if "we" are sinking into a swamp with water/mud already in our neck... It may be one of the motives behind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_Rebellion or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_Rebellion ... YES, I think we are in a very major climate/pandemic crisis and more wars are very unwelcome and avoidable... I also do think that "getting a basic idea" of the crises may help us to find a way out... - Is "society in a tunnelvision" to avoid massive panic ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population ; In world demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently alive. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 218 more years to reach 8 billion. DJ, the number of humans itself is a -very understandable- reason for panic...If we end up in self destruction because of this panic we can not even any longer blame ourselves... If we do NOT want to end "humans" we have to get wiser...Is there one fool on a hill or over 8 billion ?

This forum

FIGURE 4