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Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus

A new pandemic

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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 47 minutes ago at 8:55am
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/netherlands-moa-start-of-first-pilot.html  or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/netherlands-moa-start-of-first-pilot.html;

As we discussed two days ago, in UK Joint Taskforce Policy Paper: Vaccination of Birds Against HPAIV (bird flu) - while a handful of countries have embraced poultry vaccination against avian flu - most countries remain hesitant to move in that direction over safety and international trade concerns.

Poorly matched, or improperly deployed vaccines could help drive viral evolution.  And without rigorous DIVA  testing, infected (albeit, asymptomatic) birds could enter the food chain. 

Despite these concerns, research into poultry avian flu vaccines continues in many countries, including here in the United States (see Zoetis Receives Conditional License from USDA for Avian Influenza Vaccine)

The decision of whether or when to actually use these vaccines here in the United States continues to be debated. 

In 2023, the Netherlands - after determining that two (of 4) vaccines appeared effective against the newer clade of H5N1 - began the 1st phase of the field trial (see WUR press statement below). 

First chickens in test phase vaccinated against bird flu virus 

September 18, 2023

The first jab was given: 1800 day-old chicks received a vaccination against highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu. Never before have chickens in the Netherlands been vaccinated against bird flu in a field trial. This marks the start of this field trial, which is taking place on behalf of the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV). It is an important step toward large-scale vaccination of poultry against the bird flu virus.

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The trial on the two farms will last until the third quarter of 2025. First results are expected in the second quarter of 2024. Under field conditions, the effectiveness of a vaccine may differ from controlled conditions in a laboratory. For example, at a poultry farm, the housing and barn climate are different, the animals are vaccinated against more diseases, and there are other germs present in that could influence the effectiveness of a vaccine. It is important that the vaccines not only provide protection against disease symptoms, but mainly prevent the spread of the bird flu virus.

         (Continue . . . )

 

While that trial appears to be still ongoing, early results were promising enough that a second phase test has begun in the Netherlands.  This one is expected to run until early 2027. 

(translated)

Start pilot vaccinate poultry against bird flu

News item | 10-03-2025 | 08:00

The pilot for the vaccination of poultry against bird flu has started. After a successful 1st phase of the field trial, this important step can now be taken. Minister Femke Wiersma (LVVN) and the poultry sector are working together to enable large-scale vaccination in a responsible manner. Vaccination plays an important role in significantly reducing the risk of bird flu outbreaks in poultry, which contributes to better protection of both animal and public health.

Minister Wiersma (LVVN): โ€œI am pleased that the poultry sector wants to take this step with me. Vaccination offers a huge opportunity to better control bird flu. With this pilot we take an important step towards a responsible and large-scale use of vaccination. โ€
Purpose and approach

The pilot is an essential step in gaining practical experience with vaccination. The aim is, on the one hand, to investigate how the market responds to the sales of the products and, on the other hand, to gain experience with the implementation of the surveillance program. This program ensures that any contamination on a vaccinated farm is quickly detected.

The pilot runs until early 2027 and starts on 1 poultry farm, with possible expansion to several companies. Chicks are vaccinated in the hatchery and are eventually placed on a laying farm as laying hen. The eggs of these hens are only sold within the Netherlands, so that trade with 3rd countries is not hindered.

Step-by-step introduction

Large-scale vaccination requires a step-by-step approach. A direct large-scale introduction requires the expansion of the veterinary infrastructure and the well-organized marketing of the products. In addition, this can have significant trade consequences, necessitating additional trade agreements. That is why the Ministry of LVVN opts for a gradual introduction, so that both effectiveness and economic impact can be properly monitored.

This pilot is being looked at with interest by other countries. The Netherlands is committed to broad international acceptance of vaccination against bird flu, so that Dutch poultry farms are better protected against future outbreaks.

          (Continue . . . )

The track record of poultry vaccination around the globe has been checkered at best.  China's H5+H7 emergency vaccination campaign in 2017 effectively halted their H7N9 epidemic in its 5th year, but other campaigns have been less successful (see J. Virus Erad.: Ineffective Control Of LPAI H9N2 By Inactivated Poultry Vaccines - China).

Given the growing endemicity of H5 viruses in both Europe and the Americas, vaccines may be the only logical recourse.  

But this is not a fire-and-forget solution.  Once we go down that path, we must truly commit to continually updating vaccines, applying them properly, and rigorously test flocks for `breakthrough' infections. 

Anything less, and we risk making a bad problem worse. 


DJ, It will bring some vaccine-immunity evading mutation selection. However the alternative is doing nothing ? So...maybe going for vaccines may be the "best of bad choices"...it may buy us time. 

The big step is moving away from animals as food...(and maybe even pets ???). 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 12 minutes ago at 12:30am
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Differnet outcomes b/w bovine H5N1, and human case of bovine H5N1. Human virus = enhanced polymerase activity vs bovine, in human cells. PB2 mutation E627K is major contributor. PB2 E362G, K627E affect morbidity, mortality, and viral replication. ๐Ÿ‘‰https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.01.640810v1.abstract
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bird-flu-30-human-samples-to-be-sent-for-testing-no-need-to-panic-says-civil-surgeon/articleshow/118819468.cms or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bird-flu-30-human-samples-to-be-sent-for-testing-no-need-to-panic-says-civil-surgeon/articleshow/118819468.cms ;

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India: 30 human bird flu samples sent for testing "No need to panic", says civil surgeon. The Times of India

DJ, After poultry outbreak in India also farmworkers are now beeing tested...

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#H5N1 #flu [She has been on ECMO for weeks.โœจPlease sequence these severe "ordinary" flu strains in #H5N1-endemic states] โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ˜ฅ โžก๏ธOhio: Waverly, Ohio, teenager on life support after getting the flu

DJ, what part of H5N1 is already "mixed up" in "normal flu"? How much is CoViD spreading in combination with Flu-is there any testing on CoViD...Could it be CoViD is escaping testing in (severe) flu cases ????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 56 minutes ago at 12:46am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles ;
Measles is an airborne disease which spreads easily from one person to the next through the coughs and sneezes of infected people.[7] It may also be spread through direct contact with mouth or nasal secretions.[16] It is extremely contagious: nine out of ten people who are not immune and share living space with an infected person will be infected.[5] Furthermore, measles's reproductive number estimates vary beyond the frequently cited range of 12 to 18,[17] with a 2017 review giving a range of 3.7 to 203.3.[18] People are infectious to others from four days before to four days after the start of the rash.[5] While often regarded as a childhood illness, it can affect people of any age.[19] Most people do not get the disease more than once.[7] Testing for the measles virus in suspected cases is important for public health efforts.[5] Measles is not known to occur in other animals.[16]
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Frequency20 million per year[3]
Deaths140,000+ (2018)[9][10]

DJ, So...are we already in a multi-diease pandemic ? With several diseases on epedemic level in two/more WHO global regions ? 

In the US/Canada "measles has returned". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles#Incidence or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles#Incidence 

Measles is a problem in Morooco, Romania...(among other countries). 

https://www.rivm.nl/en/measles or https://www.rivm.nl/en/measles ;NL situation; Since we started vaccinating children against measles, the disease has become much less common. There are usually 10 to 20 patients a year. Many of these have been in a country where measles is more common.  There is an epidemic about once every 10 to 15 years. When that happens, measles is most likely to spread in areas where fewer people are vaccinated. The last measles outbreak in the Netherlands was in 2013/2014. During that outbreak, more than 180 measles patients were admitted to hospital. One 17-year-old girl died of the consequences of measles. RIVM is closely monitoring the spread of measles and posting updates on the current situation on the website.

Can a person with measles go to childcare, school or work? 

No, a person with measles cannot go to children, school or work. If you suspect that your child has measles, keep the child at home and call the GP.

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Update 5 February 2025

In 2025, there have been 26 cases of measles reported by Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs) in various regions of the Netherlands. Most involve patients who contracted measles in another country, and their contacts (who are often unvaccinated). There is no national outbreak of measles at this time.

In 2024, there were more than 200 reported cases of measles in the Netherlands in total. There were four larger clusters, each of which gradually subsided. This is because the majority of the Dutch population is protected against measles โ€“ either by vaccination, or because they have already had measles. 

DJ, So 26 measles cases in 2025-till february 5 update-with a "normal" of 10-20 measles cases per year in NL is "above the norm"...

https://www.vax-before-travel.com/2025/02/23/57-countries-confirming-measles-outbreaks or https://www.vax-before-travel.com/2025/02/23/57-countries-confirming-measles-outbreaks ;(Vax-Before-Travel News)

Over the past two years, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued Travel Health Advisories focused on measles outbreaks.

These advisories highlight where there is an active health risk when people visit the highlighted countries.

On February 21, 2025, the CDC reissued a Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions, alert for 57 countries. This CDC list does not integrate the Region of the Americas, with numerous countries reporting 537 measles outbreaks this year.

DJ, the "travel map" has measles in Europe, Africa, Asia...So with also lots of cases in North America...YES...we may be in a measles-pandemic...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 40 minutes ago at 1:02am
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/india-media-reports-massive-surge-of-severe-flu-infections-in-delhi-with-many-hospitalized-is-it-really-h5n1 or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/india-media-reports-massive-surge-of-severe-flu-infections-in-delhi-with-many-hospitalized-is-it-really-h5n1 

DJ, Both the US/Canada and SE Asia did see human H5N1 cases in 2024. However-in general-still "limited" numbers/mild disease...In SE Asia most children died from a H5N1 infection..

Australia did see a small girl testing positive for H5N1-imported from India. However India did NOT report human cases of H5N1. So the Australian child may have been exposed to poultry-spread H5N1 in India ? 
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CoViD is STILL a pandemic, NOT mild, NOT under control...It is weakening immunity defense. Very likely a major factor behind Mpox clades going global since 2022...

The news on Mpox cases is under control..the disease is NOT !
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So..CoVid and Mpox, Measles are now part of a multi disease pandemic. With HIV-AIDS still an "old" pandemic. 

"Flu" is a "growing problem"-could be seen as going pandemic when (global) cases do not go down fas enough after flu-season.

H5-flu is widespread in many species-just like CoViD is. So-new mutations will increase further risks...
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