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Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus

A new pandemic

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Dutch Josh 2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2025 at 12:36am
DJ, H5N1 is a growing risk, just like Mpox clade lb...

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/presumptive-bird-flu-case-identified-in.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/presumptive-bird-flu-case-identified-in.html ; California has gone more than 2 weeks without reporting any new human H5N1 infections, but today the San Francisco Health Department is reporting a `presumed positive' case in a child (who has already recovered).

No dates are provided, and the investigation is reportedly ongoing, but at this time they don't know how the child was exposed.  

Today's press release warns on the consumption of raw milk, and other raw dairy products, and avoid contact with `sick or dead birds, especially wild birds and poultry.'

The statement also repeatedly stresses that `. . .  the risk to the general public remains low as there is currently no evidence of person-to-person transmission.

While the majority of known H5N1 infections have been among occupationally exposed farm workers, this would the second case in California without a known exposure. 

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The child initially tested for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV based on symptoms and tested positive for influenza A. As part of SFDPH enhanced surveillance, the specimen was subsequently tested for H5N1. An initial investigation by SFDPH has not revealed how the child may have contracted H5N1 bird flu


DJ, Unwelcome news-100,000's of Californians being evacuated (climate collapse fires..), care facilities overstretched, air quality bad...

Information is the most major tool in any crisis...reporting a "possible case" after recovery is an insult to both science and the public...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2025 at 12:50am
https://flutrackers.com/forum/ or https://flutrackers.com/forum/ "latest news",
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/ or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/ ,
https://www.thailandmedical.news/ or https://www.thailandmedical.news/ 

and some twitter/"X" sources I do use to get a basic picture-besides that also NL info like https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/current/weekly-update or https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/current/weekly-update 

The "news" is now overloading my capacity to deal with...How big a risk is measles-for what groups ? Is China in a "special" health care crisis-worse then some western countries are in ? 

I-again-am NOT any kind of expert...trying to get a basic view...

NL excess deaths https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=USA~GBR~NLD or https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=USA~GBR~NLD still high...but -for the moment- NL health care may be in a better position then a few other countries..(RS-virus in <5 y/o is a crisis...young children from NL moved to child-ICU in Germany an exception). 

NL has a relative high level of vaccinations in those that can get a vaccination (often 60 y/o+ and people with chronic disease-vaccines tax-funded).  But schools/workplaces restarted january 6...so cases very likely will increase...

https://www.corona-lokaal.nl/locatie/Nederland/waterzuivering/Nederland or https://www.corona-lokaal.nl/locatie/Nederland/waterzuivering/Nederland however corona-particles in waste water in NL -for now-decreasing...

DJ-My view; We ARE !!! already in the "mega mix diseases next pandemic" !!!
How bad it will get depends on a lot of factors...YOU can limit spread !

Governments/politics...and to be honest-my opinion-lots of experts FAIL !!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 12:49am
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Simply put, COVID-19 infections weaken our immune systems. This makes us more prone to reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, infections w other viruses (RSV), reactivation of dormant viral infections (shingles, Herpes-Zoster virus), bacterial infections(Group A strep,TB) fungal infections
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"The consequences of repeated COVID-19 infections are now becoming clear in B.C., across Canada and around the world." With an excellent section debunking the "immunity debt" BS narrative. Look at the authors.... 👏👍 https://surreynowleader.com/opinion/analysis-why-are-bc-kids-sick-all-the-time-health-experts-explain-7752521

DJ, less immunity is more "room" for new infections AND reactivation of old (hidden) infections...

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/mexico-reports-first-death-from-hmpv-hundreds-possibly-infected-amidst-speculations-a-new-subtype-has-emerged  or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/mexico-reports-first-death-from-hmpv-hundreds-possibly-infected-amidst-speculations-a-new-subtype-has-emerged 

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https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/whol-mpox-multi-country-external.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/whol-mpox-multi-country-external.html 

DJ, Even the noro-virus has new mutations...

We are in a multi-disease global disaster zone...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 8:48am
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Does anyone ever stop to question why we have NEVER, EVER updated our Covid tests? 18 months ago, we learned rapid tests are missing 90% of asymptomatic cases. They have had problems FOR YEARS. This is great for governments & business, but a lot of humans are probably going to die this way.

link https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02254-9 or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02254-9 ; 

Rapid COVID tests miss 90% of asymptomatic cases

But if the tests work much better when taken three times over the course of several days.
DJ, rest after paywall...
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No test, no case, no disability claim.

DJ, So catching a disease ends up inpoverty...

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/germany-bmel-statement-on-1st-fmd.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/germany-bmel-statement-on-1st-fmd.html ;

Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that primarily afflicts cloven-hoofed animals (including cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, deer, etc.) and poses a serious threat to agricultural interests around the world (see map above).

FMD - which only rarely infects humans (see APHIS slide below) -  is caused by a picornavirus, and has no relation to HFMD, which is a childhood disease in humans caused by a number of non-polio enteroviruses.

There are seven known types and more than 60 subtypes of the FMD virus, and different types are found in different parts of the world. This high number of variants is due to the virus's rapid mutation rate, which can lead to the emergence of new lineages and strains.


Two days ago Germany announced their first detection of FMD since 1988.  Although Bulgaria reported a limited outbreak in 2011, the last big outbreak in Europe was in the UK in 2001.
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Yesterday Germany's BMEL (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture) published the following update.  I'll have a postscript after the break. 

On January 10, 2025, a case of foot-and-mouth disease was confirmed in water buffalo in the Märkisch-Oderland district of Brandenburg. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals (cattle, sheep, goats and pigs). Zoo and wild animals can also contract FMD. The disease is widespread worldwide. The disease is harmless to humans. The disease has not occurred in Germany since 1988. The federal states are responsible for controlling animal diseases in Germany.
https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/11/nvwa-investigates-potential-foot-mouth-disease-risk-german-infections  or https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/11/nvwa-investigates-potential-foot-mouth-disease-risk-german-infections ;

The Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) has launched an investigation following the discovery of three water buffaloes infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Hönow, Germany, just northeast of Berlin. A preliminary risk analysis indicates that no animals have been directly transferred from the affected area to the Netherlands in the past six weeks. However, there may have been “indirect imports,” according to Dutch Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma in a letter to parliament.

FMD is a highly contagious disease that causes blisters and fever in cows, sheep, pigs, and other cloven-hoofed animals. Approximately 1 to 2 percent of infected animals die from the disease. In 2001, Europe experienced a severe FMD epidemic, leading to the culling of hundreds of thousands of animals in the Netherlands as a preventive measure.

The FMD cases at a German farm, where a total of 14 water buffaloes were infected, have been described by Wiersma as "surprising and very disappointing." The last reported case of FMD in an EU member state occurred in 2007. “I was shocked by this news and I am very concerned about the risk of an outbreak in the Netherlands,” Wiersma wrote.

If any animals or products from the German state of Brandenburg, where the outbreak occurred, have entered the Netherlands through indirect imports, “these businesses in the Netherlands will be blocked and further investigated,” Wiersma added

DJ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 39 minutes ago at 12:09am
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-nih-study-uncovers-why-most-current-h5n1-infections-are-not-as-severe-as-past-infections or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-nih-study-uncovers-why-most-current-h5n1-infections-are-not-as-severe-as-past-infections link to;

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/2/24-1147_article or https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/2/24-1147_article ;
In summary, this study provides a characterization of virus replication and host responses to infection in human alveolar epithelium between a contemporary clade 2.3.4.4b human HPAI H5N1 isolate and the highly virulent A/Vietnam/1203/2004 virus. 

Further studies are warranted to understand how these viruses interact with the innate immune system, particularly regarding differential ISG and proinflammatory cytokine induction, and how this affects pathogenesis in vivo. 

Nonetheless, our results indicate that the clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses currently circulating in cattle will likely exhibit reduced human disease severity compared with historic HPAI viruses but should be closely monitored for changes that may influence pathogenicity or transmissibility.

DJ, in other words-the 2004 H5N1 Vietnam variant was more infectious. 
My view-maybe spread via eye-receptors in farmworkers also a factor ? The virus in a human eye doing less damage then in the respitory system ? 

A third factor may be age-older people may have some flu-immunity limiting H5N1. Young people running more risks ? 
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Crocodiles are now in the flu game. A new study reports that 17.5% of Siamese crocs tested positive for flu antibodies, including human H1. Wow
and

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The number of H5N1 detections is straight-up insane right now.

DJ, Global spread of H5N1 in lots of species may be increasing...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 5 hours 60 minutes ago at 8:48am
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/usda-aphis-statement-on-1st-detection.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/usda-aphis-statement-on-1st-detection.html ; While it hasn't shown up yet on the USDA's outbreak list, late last week there were media reports (see FluTrackers Thread) of HPAI H5 affecting a flock in Puerto Rico, and the USDA has just emailed the following statement.

Stakeholder Announcement

Contacts:
APHISpress@usda.gov

WASHINGTON, January 13, 2025 – The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a backyard poultry flock in Puerto Rico. This is the first case of HPAI in domestic birds in Puerto Rico during this outbreak, which began in February 2022.

DJ, Not surprising...H5N1 is spread a.o. by wild birds.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/preprint-q226l-mutation-can-convert.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/preprint-q226l-mutation-can-convert.html ;

There is much interest in exactly what changes the HPAI H5Nx virus would need in order to become a more `humanized' virus; like seasonal H3N2 and H1N1 which have a strong affinity for the alpha 2,6 receptor cells most commonly found in the human respiratory system.

While several concurrent mammalian adaptations are likely required to create a pandemic strain, the ability of avian flu viruses to bind to human α2-6 receptor cells is considered the single biggest obstacle the virus must overcome in order to successfully spread in humans.
Last month, in Science: A Single Mutation in Bovine Influenza H5N1 Hemagglutinin Switches Specificity to Human Receptorswe saw a study that focused on the Q226L mutation, which we've looked at often over the years (see herehere, and here):
 
Past cases in which avian viruses adapted to infect and transmit between people required multiple mutations, usually at least three. But for the H5N1 2.3.4.4b strain (A/Texas/37/2024) isolated from the first human infection with a bovine H5N1 virus in the United States, researchers found that just a single amino acid mutation in the hemagglutinin could switch specificity to binding human-type receptors.
       (snip)
The shift alone, however, may not be enough to enable human-to-human transmission. Other genetic changes—such as mutations in polymerase basic 2 (E627K) that enhance viral replication and stability in human cells—would likely be necessary for the virus to spread efficiently among people.

Today we have another example, in a preprint that finds that this Q226L mutation may be far more successful in altering the behavior of some subclades than others. 

Specifically, they found that Q226L by itself was enough to switch an avian (H5N6) clade 2.3.4.4e virus to bind preferentially to mammalian a2,6 receptor cells, yet the same mutation  failed to do so with a  (2016) H5N8 2.3.4.4b virus

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The good news is the H5N6 clade 2.3.4.4e virus used in this study circulated primarily in Asian poultry between 2014-2017, and hasn't been reported in the wild in years.   

Less reassuringly, we now have another example of an HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4x virus switching receptor cell binding from a single (Q226L) mutation. 

And of course, Q226L isn't the only HA mutation known to switch receptor binding in H5 viruses (see Emerg. Microb. & Inf.: HA N193D Substitution Alters Receptor Binding Affinity & Enhances Virulence in Mammalian Hosts).  Another - A134V - was recently detected in the fatal Louisiana case.

While the barriers that restrict human adaptation are steep, complex, and only partially understood, they are obviously not insurmountable. 

All of the `humanized' flu viruses through the ages are believed to have originated in birds, before adapting to mammals. While it isn't known whether HPAI H5 can make that leap, it is far from guaranteed that it can't.


DJ, Alarming ! The CFI in reality may be limited-but a better spreading H5N1 virus (or other H5/H7 etc.) virus is unwelcome !

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Chalmers Hospital in Banff just hit the panic button. No new admissions, visitors restricted, and emergency cleaning protocols triggered. All because of a major flu outbreak. When a hospital shuts its doors to patients, you know it’s bad.

DJ, lots of countries report "increased pressure on healthcare"....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh 2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 31 minutes ago at 1:17pm
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⚠️ JUST IN: Death toll from the mysterious illness in J&K's Rajouri 🇮🇳 rises to 12 as two more children die. "Six children were admitted to the hospital. One girl died yesterday, and two more children passed away today. The exact cause of the deaths remains unknown."
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⚠️ BREAKING: Mysterious illness kills another in Rajouri Village, India 🇮🇳 Victims Display Symptoms of Fever, Vomiting, Sweating, Dehydration, and Loss of Consciousness as Cause Remains Unknown.
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Health experts have ruled out a viral infection, but the search for the true cause continues.

DJ...

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🔥NEW emerging tickborne orthonairovirus species as a cause of febrile illness. #China #XCV
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Johan Neyts
@neyts_johan
·
New #virus [Xue-Cheng virus (XCV)] discovered in #febrile patients (nonspecific acute to severe disease) with recent tick bites in northeastern China. #XCV is an #orthonairovirus alike e.g. #CCHF@NEJMhttps://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2410853
could both stories (India-China) be linked ? Tick-spread ?

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/quebec-measles-outbreak-escalates-as-cases-reach-eleven or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/quebec-measles-outbreak-escalates-as-cases-reach-eleven 
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