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Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus |
H2H-H5N1 spread in US |
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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< aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> US: There Are No Good Options Left With Bird Flu
"America’s response has been painfully shortsighted, and the country is paying the price: Had bird flu been kept in check earlier, it might never have made it into cows." link; https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/07/bird-flu-human-spread-pandemic/679198/ or https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/07/bird-flu-human-spread-pandemic/679198/ DJ-Link does not open...may not have that much new info... The CFR is a big ???? Lots of H5N1 human infections show to be-as far as is known-relatively mild. But there is simply not much info; "eye infection" may mean the eye looks red...or it could mean bleeding from the eye... "Respitory problems" a cough or hardly able to move...? -CoVid is again problematic...How many cases are there of "Flu-Rona"? Is there ANY testing for it...? -There must be cattle-poultry linked H5N1 spread outside the US. Why do we still see no news on that ? DJ-We keep doing all we can to create (NOT STOP !!!) a new pandemic !
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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< aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> HHS & the FDA are finally taking the bird flu crisis more seriously & are now in crisis mode. Unfortunately, they are also taking a huge step backwards in protecting workers from bird flu.
HHS just introduced an amendment that will roll back protections so that workers can be given expired products including N95s and be forced to reuse disposable masks instead of discard them after each use. That strategy cost 1000s of HCWs their lives and will harm farm workers just as bad.
https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-16247.pdf
https://fda.gov/media/135763/download…
It’s great that experts like are able to promote pharmaceutical interventions for bird flu. If they really want workers to be effectively protected, they should also be speaking out about this amendment & the need to promote PPE like elastomeric respirators and PAPRs while there is still time to ramp up production.
If nothing is done & advanced levels of protection remain ignored, pharmaceutical interventions won’t be able to get us out of the bird flu crisis.
If bird flu gets even more out of control, it could have a big impact on the food supply chain, inflation and the economy plus cost democrats dearly in the election as they won’t be able to blame Trump for the country being left unprepared for another viral threat & not having the tools needed to protect the country.
With the push towards focusing once again only on pharmaceutical interventions & either discouraging mask use or encouraging the use of N95s in a way that fails to protect workers, it’s like the government is purposely allowing the bird flu crisis to just keep getting worse.
. DJ, Vaccines can/have to be part of a pandemic strategy ! Vaccines may be more of use fighting flu-types then fighting CoViD. But vaccines alone can NOT do the job !!! To get the maximum out of tax-payer money "big pharma" profits have to be limited by law...No room for "pandemic-profits". It would also be very welcome to see "politicians" being obligated where they get their money from...Who are the "political donors" not wasting any (created) crisis.... < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> DJ, Well you do not need to be a scientist for that ! H5N1 did spread from (wild)birds into mammals on a global scale in the last two-three years...It is NOT just a US problem ! Worse...H5N1 might be going H2H already in some part(s) of the globe -without much symptoms or CoViD co-infection blamed for symptoms.... A first step has to be to get a better GLOBAL view of H5N1 spread in humans...A main reason why that is NOT done is that "politics" may NOT like the outcome....
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960736-avian-flu-h5n1-discussion-news-case-lists-links-2022?view=stream or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/960736-avian-flu-h5n1-discussion-news-case-lists-links-2022?view=stream latest;
JULY 24, 2024 Editors' notes Using AI, bird flu study shows greater antibody evasion in newer H5N1 strains by University of North Carolina at Charlotte ... According to the study, virus mutations related to "host-shifts" from birds to mammals had a statistically significant negative impact on the ability of antibodies to bind to and fight off H5N1. Researchers also found that based on the wide variety of host species and geographic locations in which H5N1 was observed to have been transmitted from birds to mammals, there does not appear to be a single central reservoir host species or location associated with H5N1's spread. This indicates that the virus is well on its way to moving from epidemic to pandemic status in the near future. ... "H5 related avian influenza A is an emerging pathogen in humans while being an ongoing pandemic in wildlife for over two years," said White, Assistant Professor of Bioinformatics. "Our predictive study provides a window to the future of using AI in the arms race against emerging pathogens." https://phys.org/news/2024-07-ai-bird-flu-greater-antibody.html or https://phys.org/news/2024-07-ai-bird-flu-greater-antibody.html DJ-Time will tell how H5N1 will further develop. My view-most likely it may spread in combination with (some variants of) CoViD. "Flu-Rona" may result in worsening "mild"H5N1 and CoViD.
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Pixie
Top Contributor Joined: 03 Jul 2024 Location: U.S. Status: Offline Points: 35 |
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02170-6
Older populations might be more protected than younger ones because of exposure to ‘matched’ strains during childhood, but an H5N1 pandemic is likely to take a major toll all the same. Thus, people born before 1968 have tended to escape H5N1’s ravages, because they probably had their first flu infection at a time when the dominant flu virus in circulation matched H5N1. But people born after 1968 eluded the worst of H7N9, because their first encounter with flu was probably with a virus that matched it rather than H5N1. Immunity from a first infection provided 75% protection against severe disease and 80% protection against death with a matching bird-flu virus, the authors found. If an H5N1 outbreak were to occur, this first-bout effect predicts that older people could once again be largely spared whereas younger people could be more vulnerable, Worobey says. “We should have that somewhere between the back and front of our minds,” he says. |
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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By now it may become hard to get a good view on (US) human cases of H5N1. In updates often some earlier mentioned cases might be included...
A few lists; https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/h5n1-tracking-af/991361-us-h5n1-human-case-list?view=stream or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/h5n1-tracking-af/991361-us-h5n1-human-case-list?view=stream (last update for the moment july 22) ; This is a dynamic list. Details of the cases will be added. 2024 United States - 9 poultry farmworkers at two farms in Colorado - situation developing... United States - Dairy farmworker, mild case with conjunctivitis, recovered, Colorado - reported July 3 United States - Dairy farmworker, mild case, respiratory, separate farm, in contact with H5 infected cows, Michigan - reported May 30 United States - Dairy farmworker, mild case, ocular, in contact with H5 infected livestock, Michigan - reported May 22 United States - Dairy farmworker, ocular, mild case, Texas - reported April 1 2022 United States - European strain - Male, 40, poultry worker, test confirmed on April, 27, mild case. Colorado another -good-list at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Mortality or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Mortality last update july 14. https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/07/cdc-statement-on-three-confirmed-h5n1.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/07/cdc-statement-on-three-confirmed-h5n1.html ; In a follow-up to the announcement earlier this afternoon from the Colorado Health Department, we have the following statement from the CDC on the three latest confirmed H5N1 cases among poultry workers. - Confirmation of these three additional cases brings the total number of human cases of H5 bird flu reported in the United States since April 2024 to 13. Prior to 2024, the only previous human case of H5N1 bird flu in the United States was reported among a poultry worker in Colorado in April 2022. Counting that case, there have been 14 total human cases of H5 bird flu in the United States since 2022. DJ, My view-even communication on number of tested cases is far from perfect...Another question is the link between increase of CoViD and H5N1 increases... Were the infected poultry workers vaccinated against CoViD or not ? Did they have had a recent CoViD infection ? Do they also test positive for CoViD ? Is there any such testing ? A "double" infection of CoViD and H5N1 may be worse...
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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< aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> Colorado has 10 cases in just about a month.
Let's put this in perspective....
Since 2003, there have been a total of about 880. In 21 years - that's it for the entire world.
And now, we have it in our chickens AND our cows with the USDA STILL
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/h5n1-flu-reported-cases?country=OWID_NAM~OWID_AFR~OWID_ASI~OWID_WRL - < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> treating it like it's not airborne.
The last we heard from the CDC?
July 16. Biosecurity which means gloves and boot covers.
https://tinalexander.github.io/notes/2024/07 - < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Jul 25, 2024 (U.S.)
The U.S. is hovering around 900,000 daily infections.
Nearly 2% of the U.S. population is actively infectious with COVID. Ultimately, such infections are expected to result in >40,000 new daily #LongCovid cases. - DJ-The only thing positive on the US H5N1 story is they at least admit they have one...Very likely other countries may have human H5N1 cases-but do not even test... Ways people may get infected; -raw milk from infected cattle -raw eggs from infected poultry -dried up droppings air borne -infected pets -unclear if some newer H5N1 variants may see airborne spread around the farm ? -human H5N1 cases traveling/H2H... For Colorado https://cdphe.colorado.gov/animal-related-diseases/hpai-h5n1 or https://cdphe.colorado.gov/animal-related-diseases/hpai-h5n1 (around 118 people tested-10 confirmed cases. So is the result of the other 108 test in ? Or are we still waiting for the results ?) Again the statistics give a basic indication. The real number of human H5N1 cases in the US by now must be in the dozens if not 100+ ...
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Dutch Josh
Admin Group Joined: 23 Jun 2024 Status: Offline Points: 554 |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Genetic_structure or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Genetic_structure ;
H5N1 is a subtype of Influenza A virus, like all subtypes it is an enveloped negative-sense RNA virus, with a segmented genome.[36] Subtypes of IAV are defined by the combination of the antigenic hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins in the viral envelope. "H5N1" designates an IAV subtype that has a type 5 hemagglutinin (H) protein and a type-1 neuraminidase (N) protein.[37] Further variations exist within the subtypes and can lead to very significant differences in the virus's ability to infect and cause disease, as well as to the severity of symptoms.[38][39] Influenza viruses have a relatively high mutation rate that is characteristic of RNA viruses.[40] The segmentation of its genome facilitates genetic recombination by segment reassortment in hosts infected with two different strains of influenza viruses at the same time.[41][42] Through a combination of mutation and genetic reassortment the virus can evolve to acquire new characteristics, enabling it to evade host immunity and occasionally to jump from one species of host to another.[43][44] and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2#Genome or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2#Genome ; SARS-CoV-2 has a linear, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA genome about 30,000 bases long.[104] Its genome has a bias against cytosine (C) and guanine (G) nucleotides, like other coronaviruses.[153] DJ, Flu virus and corona virus both are RNA virus but they "spin/turn" in opposite directions...No idea if that is good or bad... Also no idea on "what CoViD and Flu" can "do" with eachother... -recombination ? Part of a flu virus and a corona virus form a new virustype ? -switch genes-causing mutations ? -"follow" eachother-co-spread...if a host is "open" for one virus it will be open for the other virus ? H5N1 and flu can go for non-human hosts...both must be widespread in mammals around the globe...So did the virus-types interact ?
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