Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are linearly related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the so-called demand curve.
Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather.
Climate change is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes and they are increasing in scale, frequency and intensity.
Research shows that 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone.
The direct damage costs to health (excluding costs in health-determining sectors such as agriculture and water and sanitation) is estimated to be between US$ 2–4 billion per year by 2030.
Areas with weak health infrastructure – mostly in developing countries – will be the least able to cope without assistance to prepare and respond.
Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through better transport, food and energy use choices can result in very large gains for health, particularly through reduced air pollution.
Analysis of Correlation between Climate Change and Human Health Based on a Machine Learning Approach
Our findings suggest that anthropogenic climate change is strongly correlated with human health; some diseases are mainly related to risk factors while others require a more significant number of variables to derive a correlation.
In addition, a forecast of victims related to climate change was formulated. The predicted scenario confirms that a prevalently increasing trend in climate change factors corresponds to an increase in victims.
< id="mwe_p_0_placeholder" poster="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d1/Range-expansion-of-the-Bluetongue-vector-Culicoides-imicola-in-continental-France-likely-due-to-srep27247-s1.ogv/220px--Range-expansion-of-the-Bluetongue-vector-Culicoides-imicola-in-continental-France-likely-due-to-srep27247-s1.ogv.jpg" preload="none" -mw-tmh="" ="mw--element" width="220" height="220" -durationhint="184" -mwtitle="Range-expansion-of-the-Bluetongue-vector-Culicoides-imicola-in-continental-France-likely-due-to-srep27247-s1.ogv" -mwprovider="wikimediacommons" resource="/wiki/:Range-expansion-of-the-Bluetongue-vector-Culicoides-imicola-in-continental-France-likely-due-to-srep27247-s1.ogv" playsinline="" ="" ="-1" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid var--border-color-subtle,#c8ccd1; aspect-ratio: 220 / 220;">Duration: 3 minutes and 4 seconds.3:04Culicoides imicola rangeTraditionally, Culicoides imicola has been found in subtropical Asia and Africa. However, due to climate change, they have spread all the way to Europe and as far as Sweden.[28] The increase in temperature has positively impacted C. imicola distribution, which has raised concern in the spread of disease across central Europe as the flies make their way northward.[29][30] Without a significant improvement in epidemiological control measures, what is currently considered a once-in-20-years outbreak of bluetongue would occur as frequently as once in five or seven years by midcentury under all but the most optimistic climate change scenario.[31]: 747
So insect-spread diseases and climate should be above discussion...(my view).
In May 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) made an emergency announcement of the existence of a multi-country outbreak of mpox, a viral disease then commonly known as "monkeypox".[7] The initial cluster of cases was found in the United Kingdom,[8] where the first case was detected in London on 6 May 2022[9] in a patient with a recent travel history from Nigeria where the disease has been endemic.[10]
On 16 May, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed four new cases with no link to travel to a country where mpox is endemic.[9] Subsequently, cases have been reported from many countries and regions.[11]
The outbreak marked the first time mpox had spread widely outside Central and West Africa. The disease had been circulating and evolving in human hosts over several years before the outbreak and was caused by the clade IIb variant of the virus.[12]
DJ, The Mpox picture is complicated;
-men having sex with other men do play a (major) role
-however the picture 2022-2024 most of the Mpox deaths may be in children-contact with contaminated surfaces...
-CoViD may have played a role in Mpox spreading outside Africa; less immunity after CoViD...however a few "super spreaders" may also start/cause a lot of cases...
-Is there a clear climate factor ???? Maybe in a timeline/big picture....
One could claim overpopulation/urbanization is the main motor for Mpox in Africa...more contact between animals with Mpox and humans (via urine/droppings of those infected animals)....
DJ The 2022 global outbreak of Mpox was linked to the West African variant/clade...Mpox has been a problem in Africa for decades...HIV/AIDS, population growth/urbanization and CoViD may all be factors for "Mpox getting out of cotrol" in 2022...
During 2023, a clade I outbreak of mpox disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in 14,626 suspected cases being reported, with 654 associated deaths, making for a case-fatality rate of 4.5%. The outbreak continued into 2024 with an additional 3,576 suspected mpox cases and 265 deaths being reported in the DRC through the first 9 weeks of the year, making for an estimated CFR of 7.4%.[91]
Transmission of the virus in the outbreak appears to be primarily through sexual and close familial contact, with cases occurring in areas without a history of mpox, such as South Kivu and Kinshasa. An estimated 64% of the cases and 85% of fatalities have occurred in children. The outbreak seems to consist of two separate sub-variants of clade I, with one of the sub-variants having a novel mutation making detection with standard assays unreliable.[91][92]
The outbreak spread to the neighbouring country of the Republic of Congo, with 43 mpox cases being reported in March 2024.[91] By early August the outbreak spread further into central and southern Africa with cases reported in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, and South Africa.[66][16]
DJ...Mpox clade 1B is now seen as a continental risk for Africa...In part it still may have some links with the 2022 global outbreak however this form of (Central African) Mpox is different-more dangerous-than the 2022 (West African linked) global outbreak...
One could argue that above mentioned factors/reasons (HIV-AIDS, urbanization/overpopulation) and ongoing wars explain a second major Mpox outbreak...
One of the very sad aspects of most wars is massive rape of women resulting in further spread of S.T.D. (Sexual Transmitted Diseases)...But also war is not new for Africa...
Rich countries often stay rich by keeping poor countries poor...Poverty=hardly any basic healthcare...Mega-cities in Africa may have populations of over 10 million people...
So, a second major outbreak of Mpox only may be explained with climate issues on top of many other "old" factors...Africa was a "hard place to be born in" and worsening global climate is making matters only worse...
In August 2018, China reported the first African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province, which was also the first reported case in East Asia.[71] By September 1, 2018, the country had culled more than 38,000 hogs.[72] Since the week of September 10, 2018, China has blocked transports of live pigs and pig products in a large part of the country[73] to avoid spread beyond the 6 provinces where the virus was then confirmed. By the end of 2018, the outbreaks had been reported in 23 provinces and municipalities across China.[74] On April 25, 2019, the virus was reported to have spread to every region of China, as well as parts of Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.[75] The Chinese pig population was reported to have declined by almost 100 million compared with the previous year, driving European pork prices to reach a six-year high.[76]
-
In September 2019, South Korea confirmed a second case of African swine fever at a pig farm in Yeoncheon, where 4,700 pigs had been raised, a day after reporting its first-ever outbreak of the virus.[79] As of 31 October 2019, the virus has been detected in domestic pigs in nine places in Gyeonggi-do and five places in Incheon City. It was also confirmed in 18 wild boars from Gangwon-do and Gyeonggi-do, inside or near the Civilian Control Zone.[80]
DJ, Like Blue Tongue Virus (BTV) disease African Swine Fever (ASF) ;
-is spread by small insects
-limited number of (non human) hosts...
ASFV is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and exists in the wild through a cycle of infection between ticks and wild pigs, bushpigs, and warthogs. The disease was first described after European settlers brought pigs into areas endemic with ASFV, and as such, is an example of an emerging infectious disease.
ASFV replicates in the cytoplasm of infected cells.[1] It is the only virus with a double-stranded DNA genome known to be transmitted by arthropods.[5]
DJ; Two main questions;
-Why did African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) go on a global tour in 2017/18 ?
ASFV crossed the Atlantic Ocean, and outbreaks were reported in some Caribbean islands, including Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti).[27] Resultantly US Customs and Border Protection is on high alert to prevent any spread to the US, which would inflict billions of dollars of damage to the pork industry in the country.[27] Major outbreaks of ASF in Africa are regularly reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health (previously called L'office international des épizooties).[citation needed]
In 2018 the virus spread to Asia, affecting more than 10 percent of the total pig population in several countries, leading to severe economic losses in the pig sector.[28]
And;
-Did pigs also catch a corona virus as a co-infection?
Swine coronaviruses (SCoVs) are one of the most devastating pathogens affecting the livelihoods of farmers and swine industry across the world. These include transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV), porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCV), porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV), swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV), and porcine delta coronavirus (PDCoV). Coronaviruses infect a wide variety of animal species and humans because these are having single stranded-RNA that accounts for high mutation rates and thus could break the species barrier. The gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, and nervous systems are the primary organ systems affected by SCoVs. Infection is very common in piglets compared to adult swine causing high mortality in the former. Bat is implicated to be the origin of all CoVs affecting animals and humans. Since pig is the only domestic animal in which CoVs cause a wide range of diseases; new coronaviruses with high zoonotic potential could likely emerge in the future as observed in the past.
The recently emerged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing COVID-19 pandemic in humans, has been implicated to have animal origin, also reported from few animal species, though its zoonotic concerns are still under investigation.
This review discusses SCoVs and their epidemiology, virology, evolution, pathology, wildlife reservoirs, interspecies transmission, spill-over events and highlighting their emerging threats to swine population. The role of pigs amid ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will also be discussed. A thorough investigation should be conducted to rule out zoonotic potential of SCoVs and to design appropriate strategies for their prevention and control.
DJ, So could African Swine Fever Virus be mixed with a Swine coronavirus and have resulted in the SARS-2 pandemic killing so far 32-40 million humans ?
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1), previously known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV),[2] is a strain of coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the respiratory illness responsible for the 2002–2004 SARS outbreak.[3]
DJ, SARS-2 was NOT contained...(no longer "emerging" but still a pandemic").
So...(I am NOT any kind of expert-just making my mind up...This is NOT science...just a forum on science...)
"Climate collapse = pandemics" ????
-It will be a major factor ! There may not be other ways to explain the growth in diseases going global...
-CoViD decreasing immunity is worsening the problem...However Zika-virus, African Swine Fever became global before CoViD19 showed up...
-CoViD-19 itself may have become a global disaster with climate collapse being a major factor.
DJ-Of course there are lots of other factors;
Pandemic triangle is disease-transport-host...
The transport factor -tens of millions of people per day traveling from one continent to another will result in more diseases going from one continent to another...
Decrease of travel=decrease of pandemic risks...
Hosts, humans/mammals may have become more vulnerable...There may have been over 4 billion human CoViD cases...so even if that "only" would decrease human immunity defense by 10% it -in itself-would mean more diseases going global...
Diseases have been part of human history...most of the time we were able to "limit damage enough" to see human population grow from 1 billion in the 1800's to over 8.1 billion in 2024...
#COP28#ClimateChange is about consumption of very richest people in our global society.
50% of global emissions are emitted by just 10% of the population.
90% of global emissions by 50% of the population.
We need climate justice to save our planet. The rich need to step up
DJ, One could claim a small group of people may be responsible for increasing both climate and pandemic risks...Overpopulation itself is NOT the major problem...
Around 80% of airtravel is done by 20% of air travellers...(Very likely over 50% of the global population NEVER was in an airplane !!!).
Airpolution is killing millions of people per year...so yet another factor....
DJ-I leave it to experts to further investigate the climate component of pandemics...
Yaneer Bar-Yam (born 1959) is an American scientist and activist specializing in complex systems. An expert in the quantitative analysis of pandemics, he advised policy makers on the Western African Ebola virus epidemic[1] and founded EndCoronavirus.org, a global network of several volunteers formed in February 2020 to provide information, guidelines, and policy advocacy to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.[2] He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI), an independent research institution that studies complex systems science and its real-world applications.
DJ, Understanding "compex systems" may help finding solutions...
Since the last big wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—the omicron variant—less than 2 years ago, a range of pathogens have suddenly emerged. Some are not well-known, such as mpox and chikungunya virus; others have been known about for centuries, such as Vibrio cholerae (which causes cholera) and Plasmodia parasites (which cause malaria). There is even the prospect that pathogens frozen in the permafrost, for which no immunity currently exists, may be released as the climate continues to warm. Such a notion may be considered alarmist. And some people may think neither climate change nor epidemics are real or that both will pass. However, there is overwhelming evidence that climate change is fueling disease outbreaks and epidemics and that it is not a matter of if, but when, such events will precipitate another pandemic.
There are several ways that climate hazards aggravate infectious diseases, both directly and indirectly. These include the slow rise in temperature; changes in environmental conditions that increase the dispersal of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, rodents, and ticks; and the sudden appearance of extreme events such as floods, which contaminate drinking-water sources and trigger the displacement of humans and animals, which can carry and transmit pathogens.
DJ, climate "hazards" and "diseases" can interact in so many ways...
PTSD/mental issues are an increasing problem...Losing hope in fellow humans, the future, politics are part of that problem as well...
The cover story of April 5's New Scientist offers commentary by NECSI president, Yaneer Bar-Yam, on the nature and vulnerabilities of modern civilization. The increasing interconnectedness of global systems both enhances our abilities, and leads to collective risks. Any segment of the global community threatened by natural disaster or disease will have severe repercussions for the rest of the world.
"Losing pieces indiscriminately from a highly complex system is very dangerous," said Dr. Bar-Yam. "One of the most profound results of complex systems research is that when systems are highly complex, individuals matter." According to Bar-Yam, understanding the weaknesses of civilization is critical to our ongoing existence. "Complexity leads to higher vulnerability in some ways," he said. "This is not widely understood."
Complex systems science is a vital tool for protecting society worldwide from such dangers as pandemics, natural disaster, terrorism, climate change, resource exhaustion, as well as economic crises.
DJ, A part of a solution may be in making systems less complex....
I think "internet" is great...but when a software update error disturbs air travel to hospitals around many countries for hours we may not be using it in a clever enough way...
Cars are "great"...but 1 billion cars on this planet is a disaster making mobility problems worse NOT better...
DJ; We may even benefit from "re-thinking" the way we live ! Less stress, less meat, less car use may improve our lives ! It also may save the planet and humanity !
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