PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus |
A new pandemic |
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/netherlands-moa-start-of-first-pilot.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/netherlands-moa-start-of-first-pilot.html;
As we discussed two days ago, in UK Joint Taskforce Policy Paper: Vaccination of Birds Against HPAIV (bird flu) - while a handful of countries have embraced poultry vaccination against avian flu - most countries remain hesitant to move in that direction over safety and international trade concerns.
Despite these concerns, research into poultry avian flu vaccines continues in many countries, including here in the United States (see Zoetis Receives Conditional License from USDA for Avian Influenza Vaccine).
In 2023, the Netherlands - after determining that two (of 4) vaccines appeared effective against the newer clade of H5N1 - began the 1st phase of the field trial (see WUR press statement below).
DJ, It will bring some vaccine-immunity evading mutation selection. However the alternative is doing nothing ? So...maybe going for vaccines may be the "best of bad choices"...it may buy us time. The big step is moving away from animals as food...(and maybe even pets ???).
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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< aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> Differnet outcomes b/w bovine H5N1, and human case of bovine H5N1. Human virus = enhanced polymerase activity vs bovine, in human cells. PB2 mutation E627K is major contributor. PB2 E362G, K627E affect morbidity, mortality, and viral replication.
- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bird-flu-30-human-samples-to-be-sent-for-testing-no-need-to-panic-says-civil-surgeon/articleshow/118819468.cms or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bird-flu-30-human-samples-to-be-sent-for-testing-no-need-to-panic-says-civil-surgeon/articleshow/118819468.cms ; < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> India: 30 human bird flu samples sent for testing
"No need to panic", says civil surgeon.
The Times of India DJ, After poultry outbreak in India also farmworkers are now beeing tested... < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> DJ, what part of H5N1 is already "mixed up" in "normal flu"? How much is CoViD spreading in combination with Flu-is there any testing on CoViD...Could it be CoViD is escaping testing in (severe) flu cases ????
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles ;
Measles is an airborne disease which spreads easily from one person to the next through the coughs and sneezes of infected people.[7] It may also be spread through direct contact with mouth or nasal secretions.[16] It is extremely contagious: nine out of ten people who are not immune and share living space with an infected person will be infected.[5] Furthermore, measles's reproductive number estimates vary beyond the frequently cited range of 12 to 18,[17] with a 2017 review giving a range of 3.7 to 203.3.[18] People are infectious to others from four days before to four days after the start of the rash.[5] While often regarded as a childhood illness, it can affect people of any age.[19] Most people do not get the disease more than once.[7] Testing for the measles virus in suspected cases is important for public health efforts.[5] Measles is not known to occur in other animals.[16] - DJ, So...are we already in a multi-diease pandemic ? With several diseases on epedemic level in two/more WHO global regions ? In the US/Canada "measles has returned". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles#Incidence or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles#Incidence Measles is a problem in Morooco, Romania...(among other countries). https://www.rivm.nl/en/measles or https://www.rivm.nl/en/measles ;NL situation; Since we started vaccinating children against measles, the disease has become much less common. There are usually 10 to 20 patients a year. Many of these have been in a country where measles is more common. There is an epidemic about once every 10 to 15 years. When that happens, measles is most likely to spread in areas where fewer people are vaccinated. The last measles outbreak in the Netherlands was in 2013/2014. During that outbreak, more than 180 measles patients were admitted to hospital. One 17-year-old girl died of the consequences of measles. RIVM is closely monitoring the spread of measles and posting updates on the current situation on the website. Can a person with measles go to childcare, school or work?No, a person with measles cannot go to children, school or work. If you suspect that your child has measles, keep the child at home and call the GP. - Update 5 February 2025In 2025, there have been 26 cases of measles reported by Municipal Public Health Services (GGDs) in various regions of the Netherlands. Most involve patients who contracted measles in another country, and their contacts (who are often unvaccinated). There is no national outbreak of measles at this time. In 2024, there were more than 200 reported cases of measles in the Netherlands in total. There were four larger clusters, each of which gradually subsided. This is because the majority of the Dutch population is protected against measles – either by vaccination, or because they have already had measles. DJ, So 26 measles cases in 2025-till february 5 update-with a "normal" of 10-20 measles cases per year in NL is "above the norm"... https://www.vax-before-travel.com/2025/02/23/57-countries-confirming-measles-outbreaks or https://www.vax-before-travel.com/2025/02/23/57-countries-confirming-measles-outbreaks ;(Vax-Before-Travel News) Over the past two years, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued Travel Health Advisories focused on measles outbreaks. These advisories highlight where there is an active health risk when people visit the highlighted countries. On February 21, 2025, the CDC reissued a Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions, alert for 57 countries. This CDC list does not integrate the Region of the Americas, with numerous countries reporting 537 measles outbreaks this year. DJ, the "travel map" has measles in Europe, Africa, Asia...So with also lots of cases in North America...YES...we may be in a measles-pandemic...
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/india-media-reports-massive-surge-of-severe-flu-infections-in-delhi-with-many-hospitalized-is-it-really-h5n1 or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/india-media-reports-massive-surge-of-severe-flu-infections-in-delhi-with-many-hospitalized-is-it-really-h5n1
DJ, Both the US/Canada and SE Asia did see human H5N1 cases in 2024. However-in general-still "limited" numbers/mild disease...In SE Asia most children died from a H5N1 infection.. Australia did see a small girl testing positive for H5N1-imported from India. However India did NOT report human cases of H5N1. So the Australian child may have been exposed to poultry-spread H5N1 in India ? - CoViD is STILL a pandemic, NOT mild, NOT under control...It is weakening immunity defense. Very likely a major factor behind Mpox clades going global since 2022... The news on Mpox cases is under control..the disease is NOT ! - So..CoVid and Mpox, Measles are now part of a multi disease pandemic. With HIV-AIDS still an "old" pandemic. "Flu" is a "growing problem"-could be seen as going pandemic when (global) cases do not go down fas enough after flu-season. H5-flu is widespread in many species-just like CoViD is. So-new mutations will increase further risks...
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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DJ, again I am NOT any kind of medical expert...may know a bit of history. Try to make (some) sense of pandemics and backgrounds...
Air polution, climate collapse not only increase pandemic risks-they also worsen it.. Politics going against science; "saving the economy" at the cost of public health-in fact worsening the economy... There are know diseases; CoViD, Mpox, measles, flu, TB(c) that may do "unexpected" things in number of infecting people/disease severity... Very likely new types of flu, CoViD (etc) may already be on their way...some of them -for now still- in non-human hosts... https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/herpes-virus-in-the-nose-can-lead-to-long-term-brain-and-behavior-issues or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/herpes-virus-in-the-nose-can-lead-to-long-term-brain-and-behavior-issues https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herpes or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herpes ;
DJ, Herpes-virus can get into the brain, eyes... DJ-Multi-disease-infections; FluRona+ bacterial infections=more severe disease...and may be under reported/missed. ------ So "disease X" might be a mix of (most) known diseases co-infecting/co-spreading because the viral-mix may benefit from co-infecting... Measles is -so far- only a human high risk. Diseases able to spread in many species-often with HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS !!! of hosts however may be a higher risk... Those diseases do not need humans...so "killing all human hosts" is not a problem for those kinds of diseases... Another risk is a "limited health risk in a small group of animals" may become a major health risk for much more species...Immunity damage (CoViD, measles, herpes etc.) only creating more room for more disease... Case Fatality Ratio-by now-may be very hard to determine for individual diseases. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Excess deaths also include climate collapse/war deaths...
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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< aria-label="Grok s" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> Birds beginning their migration back Northward to spend Summer in Canada, raising 1-4 billion chicks who will get infected with Avian Flu and mutate a new Viral Strain for August...
As the birds head north, they will spread B3.13 and D1.1 (last Spring's and this Fall's strains) DJ, part of those virus ends up in mammals eating infected birds... https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2725901/ or https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2725901/ ; Migratory movements of wild birds likely spread zoonotic infectious agents, such as avian influenza and West Nile viruses. - Wild birds share with humans the capacity for moving fast over large distances. During migratory movements, birds carry pathogens that can be transmitted between species at breeding, wintering, and stopover places where numerous birds of various species are concentrated. We consider the area of the Camargue (southern France) as an example to highlight how ad hoc information already available on birds’ movements, abundance, and diversity can help assess the introduction and transmission risk for birdborne diseases in the western Mediterranean wetlands. Avian influenza and West Nile viruses are used as examples because birds are central to the epidemiology of these viruses. DJ, It is one system/one health...animals do not see borders...
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Dutch Josh 2 ![]() Admin Group ![]() Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1551 |
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https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=USA~GBR~NLD~RUS~BRA~ZAF or https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=USA~GBR~NLD~RUS~BRA~ZAF
DJ-Looking at excess deaths-comparing US-UK-NL with Russia, South Africa and Brazil. You can play the time-lapse...NL is "leading" in excess deaths later on, with Brazil #2... Just as an indication...China is not in this list/providing data. Excess deaths-in general-in 2024 NOT under prepandemic "normal" for NL, UK, US, Brazil. A reason why South Africa, Russia may do "better" is they did see higher deaths to begin with...So compared to a baseline for Russia and South Africa (etc) it may be easier to stay under it... https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps has similar statistics for Europe. Definition of excess deaths may not be exactly the same-also comparing to a baseline (year(s) as a normal) may be different-resulting in different statistics. Some countries exclude deaths in care centers..."playing with numbers" or delay reporting-so in statistics "excess deaths are more spread" (avoiding peaks).
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