A new pandemic

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   https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 or https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 
CoronaHeadsUp
@CoronaHeadsUp
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US: 1 in 49 people actively infectious with Covid
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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA
@michael_hoerger
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1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)

1 in 49 people actively infectious
Nearly 1 million daily infections
About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating
300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per week

The infections are likely minor underestimates. AZ and OR did not report this week. They were surging, so the lack of data brings down the average. As well, the model gives 80% weight to CDC wastewater data and 20% weight to Biobot, but Biobot took the week off, so this is dependent on observed changes in the CDC data.

It would be wise to add multiple imputation into the model to account for all the non-random missingness during surges, but I won't likely get to that anytime soon.

The peak is looking more and more like 1.4 million daily infections, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's earlier than shown and more like 1.3 million, based on the pattern of retroactive data corrections last winter. If the real-time data really stink, it could come in closer to 1.0-1.1 million. To top 1.6 million, we would probably need some serious immune escape that at present I just don't see happening. However, in past winters, transmission was declining nationally in early/mid January, and back-to-school is a wild card.
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CoronaHeadsUp
@CoronaHeadsUp
·
7h
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Northern Ireland: Elderly patients' five-day wait in 'intolerable' A&E 

"Two elderly patients have been in the emergency department of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast for more than five days."

BBC News
DJ, CoViD and "normal flu" are increasing another health crisis...With lots of HCW-ers looking for a more safe job...Long CoViD=poverty...

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Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1023	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 06 Jan 2025 at 9:40pm
	https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 or https://x.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1876406820857885097/photo/1 CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp < aria-label="Grok s" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> US: 1 in 49 people actively infectious with Covid - Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger < aria-label="Grok s" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> 1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.) 1 in 49 people actively infectious Nearly 1 million daily infections About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating 300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per week The infections are likely minor underestimates. AZ and OR did not report this week. They were surging, so the lack of data brings down the average. As well, the model gives 80% weight to CDC wastewater data and 20% weight to Biobot, but Biobot took the week off, so this is dependent on observed changes in the CDC data. It would be wise to add multiple imputation into the model to account for all the non-random missingness during surges, but I won't likely get to that anytime soon. The peak is looking more and more like 1.4 million daily infections, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's earlier than shown and more like 1.3 million, based on the pattern of retroactive data corrections last winter. If the real-time data really stink, it could come in closer to 1.0-1.1 million. To top 1.6 million, we would probably need some serious immune escape that at present I just don't see happening. However, in past winters, transmission was declining nationally in early/mid January, and back-to-school is a wild card. - CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp · 7h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> Northern Ireland: Elderly patients' five-day wait in 'intolerable' A&E "Two elderly patients have been in the emergency department of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast for more than five days." BBC News DJ, CoViD and "normal flu" are increasing another health crisis...With lots of HCW-ers looking for a more safe job...Long CoViD=poverty...

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1023	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 06 Jan 2025 at 9:48pm
	Harry Spoelstra reposted Danielle Beckman @DaniBeckman · 23h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> I still remember the first time I saw #SARSCoV2 in the brain in the microscope, back in 2021. I was supposed to be looking at brains with Alzheimer, the neuroinflammation is similar. I knew #NeuroCovid was going to be pretty bad. We are just starting to see how much. #LongCovid DJ, if (only) 1-in-10 CoViD infections results in Long CoViD; and a realistic number of infections in humans by now may be over 4 billion...(so over 50% of ALL humans !!!) then 400 million people would be dealing with Long CoViD. Not all Long CoViD cases mean unable to work-some indications 20%-33% of cases... However if you allow MILLIONS of new CoViD cases per day you allow 100,000's of Long CoViD cases per day...And we may not even see the longer term damage... CoViD very likely kills via cancers, heart/brain damage, diabetes etc. Again (Long) CoViD and Flu is a bad-unwelcome-combination. Without CoViD damaging immunity Mpox would not have gone global...Measles a new growing risk-maybe able to spread in a group that did have measles earlier but immunity against it damaged ? Over-focus on H5N1 is unwise and unwelcome ! Certainly when that brings ignoring CoViD !!!

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1023	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 5 hours 43 minutes ago at 2:06am
	https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-iran-could-possibly-unleash-dangerous-biological-weapons-on-israel-united-states-and-europe-soon or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-iran-could-possibly-unleash-dangerous-biological-weapons-on-israel-united-states-and-europe-soon and https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/who-don-trends-of-acute-respiratory.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/who-don-trends-of-acute-respiratory.html DJ-Is this US propaganda against Iran, China ? Is it a way to blame others for a failing pandemic strategy. My view is we can expect a lot of diseases getting more room to spread because of CoViD-damage to immunity. A lot of countries did very poor in dealing with present health issues. The US has been blaming China for CoViD/lab-leaks...Even if those claims would be correct the priority has to be solving the crisis !

Dutch Josh 2 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 21 Aug 2024 Status: Offline Points: 1023	Post Options Post Reply Quote Dutch Josh 2 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 5 hours 15 minutes ago at 2:34am
	CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> UK: 'It is beyond broken now' - inside our terrifying NHS crisis "Patients and staff have told us they believe the NHS is now beyond broken and that the situation in hospitals is unsafe" Liverpool Echo - CoronaHeadsUp reposted Effie Ess @EffieEss64 · 14h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> @wesstreeting @AmandaPritchard Posted anonymously by an A&E doctor. Im writing this because I’m fu*king livid. I’m A&E reg with 9+ years experience in AEDThis morning was the first time EVER that I cried in my car after a shift.1/n - CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp · 13h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> UK: Multiple hospitals declare critical incidents over flu crisis UK Health secretary Wes Streeting said he was “genuinely distressed and ashamed” by the situation faced by patients and staff The Independent - MAH reposted Kate Pritchard @COVID19info101 · 20h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> UK experts urge China to reveal crucial details of HPMV outbreak. Numbers have doubled in the UK in last month. - CoronaHeadsUp reposted Dr Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford · 16h < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> 8 major hospitals have declared critical incidents in the last 24hrs alone. Some of the 100s patients are stranded on trolleys, in corridors & in the back of ambulances will likely die there. This isn’t normal, inevitable or attributable to viruses alone. It’s a catastrophe. - CoronaHeadsUp @CoronaHeadsUp · Jan 7 < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> US: 1 in 49 people actively infectious with Covid - DJ-The picture is bad...UK, lots of other countries high number of Flu AND of CoViD-very likely a lot of people may have both or catch extra diseases while in healthcare... H5N1 is widespread in all kinds of animals-may jump to humans from cats, poultry whatever...