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Topic: ClimatePosted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: Climate
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2024 at 2:03am
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/how-hot-will-it-get.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/how-hot-will-it-get.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/how-hot-will-it-get.html ;
Currently, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere is higher than it was last year at this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with University of Maine content. The image shows that a temperature of 21.1°C was reached in the Northern Hemisphere on June 17, 2024. The question is: Will temperatures over the next few months exceed the high temperatures reached last year?
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El Niño is no longer prevalent and La Niña conditions are expected to be dominant soon, as illustrated by the https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml - NOAA ENSO update on the right, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/06/arctic-sea-ice-alert.html - earlier post .
Nonetheless, there are fears that temperatures will remain high and continue to rise, as self-amplifying feedbacks have taken over as the dominant drivers of the temperature rise.
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Rising temperatures are also behind the decline of sea ice and permafrost, which can in turn result in huge emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
Deformation of the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html - Jet Stream is another important feedback and it particularly affects the Northern Hemisphere where the Arctic heats up more rapidly than the rest of the world, thus narrowing the temperature difference between the Tropics and the Arctic, which changes the shape of the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream will meander more and can at times even form circular wind patterns in some areas, which can strongly amplify extreme weather events such as storms that come with flooding and heatwaves that come with forest fires on land. Over oceans, the impact of deformation of the Jet Stream is even larger, since wind tends to be stronger over oceans than over land. Near the ocean, the greater temperature difference between land and sea will result in stronger winds.
DJ, Jet Stream disruption can bring cold air to places not used to the cold...Some idiots/politicians will claim that as proof "there is no climate change"...
The world may have some perspective without these idiots...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41;-94;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41;-94;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41;-94;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m providing info on 2m anomaly temperatures...
Warmer oceans=more rain, stronger storms...
We may see extreme weather on a level never seen before in human history.
Average global temperatures the last months is above 2C-"pre industrial"...Fools/politicians may go for "pre-industrial = the year 2000" and "we need a 10 year average"...
DJ-Within a decade life on this planet will become "very hard"...We need to do much more to deal with damage allready on its way...instead we end up with fools/politics "buying time/saving profits"...
Learning the hard way will kill us all...
Replies: Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 26 Jun 2024 at 2:10am
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/ - https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/ or https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/ ;
As the planet heats up, animals big and small, on land and in the sea, are headed to the poles to get out of the heat. That means animals are coming into contact with other animals they normally wouldn’t, and that creates an opportunity for pathogens to get into new hosts.
Many of the root causes of climate change also increase the risk of pandemics. Deforestation, which occurs mostly for agricultural purposes, is the largest cause of habitat loss worldwide. Loss of habitat forces animals to migrate and potentially contact other animals or people and share germs. Large livestock farms can also serve as a source for spillover of infections from animals to people. Less demand for animal meat and more sustainable animal husbandry could decrease emerging infectious disease risk and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
We have many reasons to take climate action to improve our health and reducing risks for infectious disease emergence is one of them.
DJ; Climate collapse = pandemics !
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/southeast-asia-fires-linked-to-100000-deaths/ - https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/southeast-asia-fires-linked-to-100000-deaths/ or https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/southeast-asia-fires-linked-to-100000-deaths/ ;
A series of fires in Indonesia in 2015 to clear land for agriculture caused an estimated 100,000 premature deaths in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. That’s according to a http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094023/pdf - new study from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and http://www.seas.harvard.edu/ - Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), in collaboration with colleagues from Columbia University.
According to http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html? - an August 20, 2016
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 01 Jul 2024 at 11:08pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ;
CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...
DJ, The "good news" is "Beryl" may take away much of the strength of another storm behind it... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#96L - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#96L or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#96L "Debby" may have to wait...
Beryl is the strongest hurricane this early in a year...
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2322597121 - https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2322597121 or https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2322597121 ;
For a number of years, I have argued that we are now, thanks to the effects of human-caused warming, experiencing a new class of monster storms—”category 6” hurricanes. That is to say, we are witnessing hurricanes that—by any logical extension of the existing Saffir-Simpson scale—deserve to be placed in a whole separate, more destructive category from the traditionally defined (category 5) “strongest” storms.
Up until now, that was really just a matter of opinion ( https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2322597121#core-r1 - 1 ). There was no peer-reviewed research to justify the assertion. Now there is, with a new article by Wehner and Kossin in PNAS ( https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2322597121#core-r2 - 2 ) that lays out a rigorous, objective case for expanding the scale to accommodate climate change-fueled tropical cyclones that are qualitatively stronger and more destructive than conventionally defined category 5 storms.
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Extrapolating the existing Saffir–Simpson scale, Wehner and Kossin argue that a storm with sustained winds exceeding 86 m/s/192 mph sustained winds, with substantially greater destructive potential than a conventionally defined category 5 storm, should be defined as a whole new category: category 6. A “cat 6” hurricane, in fact, is hardly just a hypothetical or theoretical construct. The authors note that five storms, all of which have occurred during the past decade—and some of which have proven catastrophic in their impacts—have exceeded that threshold. They include the eastern Pacific hurricane Patricia with its 216 mph peak winds, which made landfall in Jalisco Mexico in October 2015, and four typhoons in the western Pacific (Surigae, 196 mph, which tracked out at sea east of the Philippines in April 2021; Goni, 196 mph, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2020; Meranti, 195 mph, which impacted Taiwan and the Philippines, landfalling in eastern China in September 2016; Haiyan, 195 mph, with its deadly and devastating landfall in the Philippines in November 2013).
DJ, there are discussions on a cat7 definition for hurricanes https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 - https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 or https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 ;
A Category 7 is a hypothetical rating beyond the maximum rating of Category 5. A storm of this magnitude would most likely have winds between 215 and 245 mph, with a minimum pressure between 820-845 millibars. The storm could likely have a large wind field and a small eye. Maximum wave heights from a Category 7 hurricane may be as high as 65 feet. These storms are extremely dangerous and deadly.
DJ, It is not only about the strength...also the numbers matter...If Florida would end up with five hurricanes each year it may "not be the best place to be/desinvest !"...
Like pandemics climate collapse is dealing with political "saving the economy" stupidity...Climate collapse = pandemics !
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 02 Jul 2024 at 12:10pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2024070212&fh=168 - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2024070212&fh=168 or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2024070212&fh=168
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.0;-57.2;3&l=gust&t=20240708/0600 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.0;-57.2;3&l=gust&t=20240708/0600 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=31.0;-57.2;3&l=gust&t=20240708/0600
Monday July 8 models suggest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beryl_%282024%29 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beryl_(2024) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beryl_(2024) may make landfall in Texas...even more to the east ???
Very likely regaining a lot of strength...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 06 Jul 2024 at 11:37pm
for being with us in The Hague to support the protest!
DJ, Governments, politics, destroying the planet...The "general public" does NOT want to know THEY-the way "we" live-is destroying planet Earth...
So we may expect anti-terrorism laws to stop protests against our planet being destroyed...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/carbon-dioxide-keeps-rising-in-june-2024.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/carbon-dioxide-keeps-rising-in-june-2024.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/carbon-dioxide-keeps-rising-in-june-2024.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uGsYWImso0 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uGsYWImso0 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uGsYWImso0 Paul Beckwith;
Category 6 Hurricanes (CAT6) already occur: we are on the cusp for CAT7
A comment;
https://www.youtube.com/@sundaydriver915 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uGsYWImso0&lc=UgxDT3180Sx1KVBBnjp4AaABAg - 14 hours ago
Category 8: no measurements available due to complete planetary extinction
DJ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_a_Thousand_Cuts_%28disambiguation%29 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_a_Thousand_Cuts_(disambiguation) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_a_Thousand_Cuts_(disambiguation)
Pandemics are part of climate collapse...droughts, methane release, even seismic events can be linked to climate collapse...
The further in the climate collapse process the faster events follow eachother...And the harder it gets to limit damage...
Will a few humans survive in a space station, on the moon ?
Are "we" pushing for global nuclear war because "we" know "it is beyond repair"?
We have made it to the https://x.com/hashtag/A12?src=hashtag_click - #A12 , where Dutch authorities are once again turning water cannons on peaceful protesters, instead of listening to the scientific consensus: we need urgent climate action now!
As so often governments go for violence instead of answers...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 09 Jul 2024 at 12:30am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024402.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024402.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024402.shtml?cone#contents
"Beryl" will bring bad weather over the central US/Eastern Canada the coming week...
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https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/death-valley-extreme-week-hottest-california-b2573588.html - https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/death-valley-extreme-week-hottest-california-b2573588.html or https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/death-valley-extreme-week-hottest-california-b2573588.html ;
https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/death-valley - Death Valley is set to experience what could be the https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-iowa-midwest-kristi-noem-sioux-falls-b2567385.html - hottest week recorded anywhere on Earth, with temperatures predicted to reach a high of 133F.
Fourth of July week will see “record-breaking and dangerous https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/heat - heat ”, beginning on https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/independence - Independence Day itself when the https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/mercury - mercury is predicted to hit 125F.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/thompson-wildfire-oroville-northern-california-heatwave-b2573474.html - Temperatures are predicted to climb steadily over the following days, peaking at 133F on July 9 – just shy of the hottest air temperature ever recorded there over 100 years ago.
DJ, Here in NL/Western Europe;
https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
A level 2 was issued across far NE France into Benelux and far NW Germany mainly for damaging gusts.
A level 1 surrounds that risk for similar hazards but with lower probabilities. An isolated tornado is possible along the cold front over Belgium/the Netherlands. In addition, a few heavy rain and large hail events are forecast.
We may see "fall winds" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind of close to 100 miles p/h in this region...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 15 Jul 2024 at 3:56am
South Pole/Antarctica;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost ;
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,973,019 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2024
- Extent loss on this day 21k, 74 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k, - Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.88 million km2, 0.94 million km2, (7.4%) less than the 10 year average of 12.83 million km2.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record
- Extent is 1,226 k LESS than 2002 - Extent is 932 k LESS than 2017 - Extent is 1,511 k LESS than 2018 - Extent is 715 k LESS than 2022 - Extent is 621 k MORE than 2023 - Extent is 1,808 k LESS than the 1980's Average - Extent is 1,982 k LESS than the 2010's Average
- On average 81.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 65 days to maximum
Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.98 million km2, 0.00 million km2 below the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record. In 10 of the years 2006 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum
DJ, Simply means above average melt/break down of Antarctica glaciers as well...
North Pole/Arctic; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost ;
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 7,797,546 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2024
- Extent loss on this day 161k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 112k, - Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,614 k, which is 280 k, 4.4% more than the 10 year average of 6,334 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
- Extent is 316 k LESS than 2023, - Extent is 397 k LESS than 2022, - Extent is 413 k MORE than 2021, - Extent is 681 k MORE than 2020, - Extent is 226 k MORE than 2019, - Extent is 186 k MORE than 2016 - Extent is 121 k MORE than 2012 - Extent is 33 k LESS than the 2010's Average _____________________________________________ On average 64.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 61 days to minimum
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2024 of 4.28 million KM2, 1.10 million KM2 above the September 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million KM2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
DJ, lots of uncertainty on Arctic perspectives. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html ;
The https://data.giss.nasa.gov/ - NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1904-1924 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past twelve months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.
The above image, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - earlier post , shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana - Sam Carana for http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ - Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ - data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.
Global temperatures, Sea Surface Temperature, monthly temperatures etc. all are very abnormal.
It is more than likely climate collapse is linked to increase of pandemics. There is a correlation.
Increase of climate collapse-already on its way-very likely means an increase of pandemic risks. The global inaction on these risks makes more pandemics more than likely. We may be just at the start of pandemic escalation...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 21 Jul 2024 at 1:57am
DJ, A few recent posts from https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.650.html - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.650.html or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.650.html ;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.msg405593.html#msg405593 - Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #653 on: July 16, 2024, 03:02:07 PM »
For those of you who aren't following the CO2 thread https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4150.msg.html - here , just a heads-up that the past few weeks have been ridiculous.
CO2 levels usually start to drop in late May or early June, towards the yearly minimum in September/October. That's just not happening this year. We're still at the same levels now that we've seen in April-June.
I don't know how this will affect the melting season, but it can't be good.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2024, 03:08:29 PM by Renerpho »
Logged
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.
-Also on the sea-ice forum people try to get a view on a very complex matter (and some come to very alarming conclusions)
-One of the major questions is "the weight" single events may have on the "big picture"-can a hurricane bringing warm air/rain to the Arctic cause a collapse of Arctic (sea)ice ?
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 22 Jul 2024 at 11:51pm
Normalizing insanity ! Once-in-a-hundred-year-rains" every week...and present it as "fun";
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rYU0HtJkhI - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rYU0HtJkhI or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rYU0HtJkhI
DJ, floodings in NL last week...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html
NW Europe did not see muc h extreme heat. However some nights may have been quite warm-so average temperatures still could be high...(but people forget night temperatures are part of the statistics).
High SeaSurfaceTemperatures (SST)=more evaporation=more rain...
So far the Atlantic Hurricane Season did not yet explode...there are other indicators that are alarming. CO2 in the atmosphere is supposed to go down this time of year...but it is going up...
MultiYearIce (MYI) in the Arctic may be getting record low...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost ;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.msg406050.html#msg406050 - Re: 2024 Arctic Sea ice area & extent data
« Reply #598 on: July 22, 2024, 06:01:45 PM »
NSIDC 1-day area is currently 2nd lowest for the date. The differences between the top 4 years are again very small on this date but will grow larger in the next few days as 2020 plummets and 2019 slows down.
NSIDC compactness is still record low for the date.
DJ, South Pole https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost ;
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1) Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2024 of 13.24 million km2, 0.13 million km2 below the 2023 record low maximum of 13.37 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 46 year satellite record
The possibility of a new record low maximum certainly exists. In 10 of the 18 years 2006 to 2023, sea ice area gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low sea ice area maximum
Like with ongoing pandemics human action now may give results much later...Monitoring-increase of it to deal with most major risks-is what we should do NOW !
Of course we have to stop massive airtravel, car use, meat consumption...There is NO ROOM for learning that the hard way...we are killing ourselves !
Wars are even more criminal in the perspective of other crises getting much worse high speed...
We live in the age of insanity ! Crazy is the new normal !
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2024 at 4:07am
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperature-danger.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperature-danger.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperature-danger.html ;
Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) takes into account the effect of temperature, RH (relative humidity), wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT is used by weather.gov to warn about extreme heat stress when in direct sunlight, as is forecast to occur in grey areas on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC.
The inset shows that a temperature of 113°F or 45°C and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 95°F or 35°C is forecast for a location 8 miles south of Parker, Arizona, on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC.
The above map illustrates that extreme heat stress can occur at higher latitudes, e.g. the grey areas in the north of the United States that extend into Canada. The danger occurs where high temperatures coincide with high relative humidity.
The image below further illustrates the danger. It shows that a 'feel like' temperature of 54°C (129.1°F) and a wet bulb temperature of 31°C (87.7°F) hit an area west of Wuhan, China, on July 23, 2024 at 10:00 UTC (green circle).
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As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.
Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.
A https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 - 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1 - 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html - earlier post .
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A https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021 - 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.
Climate change danger assessment
The image below, https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10162587415085161 - earlier discussed here , expands risk assessment beyond its typical definition as the product of the severity of impact and probability of occurrence, by adding a third dimension: timescale, in particular imminence.
Imminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible.
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Rapidly rising temperatures constitute tipping points in several ways
Firstly, there is a biological threshold beyond which rising temperatures become lethal for humans, as discussed above.
Secondly, as Gerardo Ceballos describes in the video below and in a https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089 - 2017 analysis , there is a biological tipping point that threatens annihilation of species via the ongoing sixth mass extinction. Researchers such as https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/27/1922686117 - Gerardo Ceballos (2020) , https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115 - Kevin Burke (2018) and https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12144 - Ignation Quintero (2013) have for years warned that mammals and vertebrates cannot keep up with the rapid rise in temperature. Humans are classified as vertebrate mammals, indicating that we will not avoid the fate of extinction, https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf - Guy McPherson (2020) adds.
Thirdly, there are further tipping points, e.g. social-political ones. On the one hand, it would be good if people became more aware, as this could prompt more people into supporting the necessary action. On the other hand, as temperatures keep rising, there is also a danger that panic will break out, dictators will grab power and civilization as we know it will collapse abruptly, as warned about earlier, e.g. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html - in 2007 .
DJ, Climate collapse means pandemics, food/watercrises, socio-economic collapse...
But it is ignored "to save short term profits"....
So we will learn in a very hard way....
Do we really need to see thousends of people die in an area that became to impossible for human life ? We soon may see that kind of "wet-bulbe" massive mammal overheating disasters...(but even that will be called a "managable incident"...).
Crazy is the new normal !
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2024 at 1:53pm
https://www.africanews.com/2024/07/25/more-than-20-people-die-in-moroccan-heatwave/ - https://www.africanews.com/2024/07/25/more-than-20-people-die-in-moroccan-heatwave/ or https://www.africanews.com/2024/07/25/more-than-20-people-die-in-moroccan-heatwave/ ;
As Morocco experiences an intense heatwave, the health ministry says more than 20 people have died over the past 24 hours in the central city of Beni Mellal.
Meteorologist says temperatures reached as high as 48 degrees Celsius in some areas of the country between Monday to Wednesday.
Officials say most of those who passed away were either elderly or suffering from chronic illnesses, with the heat contributing to the deterioration of their health.
They have urged citizen to drink lots of water to stay hydrated and to avoid going outside at times of extreme heat.
In Beni Mellal, which is more than 200 kilometres southeast of Casablanca, temperatures were still as high as 43 degrees Celsius on Thursday.
But meteorologist said the heat across the country is expected to ease over the coming days. In the tourism hotspot of Marrakesh, they are expected to drop by 10 degrees on Sunday.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/24/record-breaking-heat-july-22-was-worlds-hottest-day - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/24/record-breaking-heat-july-22-was-worlds-hottest-day or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/24/record-breaking-heat-july-22-was-worlds-hottest-day ;
The European Union’s climate monitor says Monday was the world’s hottest day on record after it inched past Sunday’s high as swaths of Europe, Asia and North America experienced blistering temperatures.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Wednesday that the global average surface air temperature on July 22 rose to 17.15 degrees Celsius (62.9 degrees Fahrenheit) – or 0.06 degrees Celsius higher than the https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/23/worlds-hottest-day-recorded-on-sunday-climate-monitor-says - record set just a day earlier .
Gulf countries have also experienced high temperatures that exceed 60C (140F) when factoring in humidity while some European countries saw temperatures surge to 45C (113F).
As the effects of climate change intensify, weather patterns are becoming more extreme with heatwaves, droughts, ramped-up storms and floods affecting much of the globe.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/ethiopia-landslide-death-toll-rises-to-257-could-almost-double-un - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/ethiopia-landslide-death-toll-rises-to-257-could-almost-double-un or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/ethiopia-landslide-death-toll-rises-to-257-could-almost-double-un ;
Deaths caused by landslides in Ethiopia have risen to 257, but the final death toll is expected to be 500, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
The UN agency released the figures on Thursday after the https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/23/dozens-killed-in-twin-ethiopia-landslides - landslides in the mountainous Gofa zone in southern Ethiopia, the first triggered by heavy rains on Monday, the second engulfing those who had gathered to rescue people.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/un-chief-calls-for-action-to-stem-extreme-heat-epidemic - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/un-chief-calls-for-action-to-stem-extreme-heat-epidemic or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/25/un-chief-calls-for-action-to-stem-extreme-heat-epidemic ;
The head of the United Nations has called on countries to take action to address the effects of “crippling heat”, as the world experiences record-high temperatures that have put vulnerable communities at risk.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/5/godfathers-of-climate-chaos-un-chief-calls-for-ban-on-fossil-fuel-ads - Antonio Guterres said billions of people around the globe are experiencing “an extreme heat epidemic” fuelled by climate change.
“Extreme heat is increasingly tearing through economies, widening inequalities, undermining the Sustainable Development Goals, and killing people,” the UN secretary-general said.
“We know what is driving it: fossil fuel-charged, human-induced climate change. And we know it’s going to get worse; extreme heat is the new abnormal.”
DJ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17cNHZQcBa4 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17cNHZQcBa4 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17cNHZQcBa4 Weather Watcher;
These Storms Just Took a Drastic Turn…
"A depression over the Atlantic may bring 40C+ heat into Spain/France next week...Extreme rain in Baltic region...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2024 at 12:17am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034135.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034135.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034135.shtml?cone#contents
DJ-"Debby" very likely will get a "Tropical Storm"(TS) maybe Cat.1 hurricane...may reach Florida monday... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfzwkoHUEac - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfzwkoHUEac or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfzwkoHUEac / https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ...
Depending on how fast "Debby" can move it could move over Florida towards the east US Atlantic coast...(as a storm...maybe reform to a cat 1 ???)
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.2;-63.2;3&l=gust - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.2;-63.2;3&l=gust or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.2;-63.2;3&l=gust showing another hurricane forming next week-may hit the south of the US...
More bizarre-storms moving from Canada to the UK...(a bit of a pattern for autumn/fall)...
West of Mexico some indications for a very deep low pressure area...
DJ-Recent "models" no longer indicate 20C+ for Greenland...but extreme weather tends to get even more unpredictable...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season# - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season# or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#
https://www.rtvoost.nl/nieuws/2459278/vijftig-huizen-in-enschede-onbewoonbaar-door-wateroverlast-bewoners-krijgen-ander-huis - https://www.rtvoost.nl/nieuws/2459278/vijftig-huizen-in-enschede-onbewoonbaar-door-wateroverlast-bewoners-krijgen-ander-huis or https://www.rtvoost.nl/nieuws/2459278/vijftig-huizen-in-enschede-onbewoonbaar-door-wateroverlast-bewoners-krijgen-ander-huis ;
Residents of more than fifty houses in Pathmos and Stadsveld in Enschede will receive replacement housing. This is necessary because their houses have become uninhabitable due to the floods on 21 July. At that time, there was an extreme amount of rain in parts of Twente. Sewage caused considerable damage to a large number of houses that evening. Bacteria and fungi from sewage pose health risks. That is why all affected residents will be provided with alternative housing in the short term.
DJ, Very likely climate collapse will be in a growing number of "smaller events" more then in "sensational news"....Already a combination of climate and war resulting in famine a.o. in Sudan...(with those most responsible for the crisis worsening it by sending weapons-not food/water/doctors...).
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2024 at 12:59am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Debby - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Debby or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Debby ;
On July26, the NHC started tracking a tropical wave with the potential for development into a tropical cyclone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-107 - [105] As it moved westward, the NHC noted that the tropical wave was becoming well-defined, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-108 - [106] designating it Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on August2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-109 - [107] That night, the system developed a closed circulation just off the southern coast of Cuba, causing the NHC to upgrade it into a tropical depression. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-:6-40 - [38] Tropical Depression Four entered the Gulf of Mexico where it further intensified into Tropical Storm Debby later on August3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-:7-41 - [39]
Due to flooding threats posed by Debby, Governor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis - Ron DeSantis placed 54 counties in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida - Florida under a state of emergency on August1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-110 - [108] In addition, Governor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Kemp - Brain Kemp declared a state of emergency in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28U.S._state%29 - Georgia ahead of Debby. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-111 - [109]
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034742.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034742.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034742.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKo-JoqpEZ0 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKo-JoqpEZ0 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKo-JoqpEZ0 Tropical Tidbits;
[Saturday] TD4 to Strengthen Before Landfall in Northern Florida
DJ "Debby" is highly unpredictable... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ ...
-If "Debby" stays over hot water longer it will get stronger...cat1...
-In recent history we did see lots of surprises...storms getting major hurricanes within a day...
-So very likely "Debby" will hit Florida more north...still within 24-36 hours...
-Then a lot of models indicate "Debby" weakening-moving towards the Atlantic-there regaining strength...(but it may bring lots of rain and a storm surge for northern Florida for days...)
-Later on the coming week "Debby" could make another landfall on the US Atlantic coast...
Unpredictable-crazy-weather is a new normal...A lot of economic damage may come from people/bussinesses trying to prepare for extreme weather...Some models suggest even Debby could move south after "touching" Florida...
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRlEoS7X4q8 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRlEoS7X4q8 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRlEoS7X4q8 ;
Arctic 21: Antarctica might raise sea levels more than we thought
DJ from the https://iccinet.org/ - https://iccinet.org/ or https://iccinet.org/
Another source https://truthout.org/articles/antarctica-in-2nd-extreme-heat-wave-in-3-years-temps-50f-higher-than-normal/ - https://truthout.org/articles/antarctica-in-2nd-extreme-heat-wave-in-3-years-temps-50f-higher-than-normal/ or https://truthout.org/articles/antarctica-in-2nd-extreme-heat-wave-in-3-years-temps-50f-higher-than-normal/
DJ-Extreme weather, storms, may bring very warm weather+ melt over areas supposed to stay very cold...A warmer Antarctica may see an increase of both seismic and volcanic activity speeding up melt/sea level rise even more...
I would love to believe landice flowing into the ocean could "cool" the oceans... https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html ;
The https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.
DJ, Very likely land-ice moving high speed into oceans will see high speed melt and an even faster sealevel rise...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2024 at 12:22pm
Accu Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m4kZBozALo - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m4kZBozALo or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m4kZBozALo ;
Hurricane Debby to Hit FL, Cause Life-Threatening Flooding in Southeast
DJ;
-"Debby" may even reach cat 2 hurricane monday morning hitting "the bend" coastline north Florida...(DJ-Given the very hot ocean and lack of windshear cat 3/major ????)
-"Debby" will cross Florida follow the US coast with heavy rain...
-May even get Tropical Storm status next weekend near New York/New England...
DJ-Next week it may move over and reach Ireland as a storm depression august 15 ?
Crazy !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJRKI8Nsh7k - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJRKI8Nsh7k or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJRKI8Nsh7k Weather Watcher;
August Weather: Abnormally Potent Lows to Dominate? Weekly Forecast!
DJ...Ith "pest from the west" is a constant factor this summer in NW Europe..."Debby" may become a factor mid August-before that we may even get "hot" days in NW Europe...
Another storm may be forming in the Atlantic-to early to say much about it...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2024 at 10:46pm
Dry air may prevent "Debby" from getting into a cat 2 (+) hurricane...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeX4PhtLzJw - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeX4PhtLzJw or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeX4PhtLzJw Tropical Tidbits;
[Sunday] Debby to Hit Florida as a Hurricane; High Flooding Risk for Southeast U.S.
DJ, High pressure from central US slows down "Debby"so crazy amounts of rain for days...in Georgia-area...Also some models see "Debby" moving into the Atlantic long enough to restrengthen AGAIN into a cat.1 hurricane-possibly making another landfall in South Caroline middle of the week...
Temperature drop and lots of rain end of the week for New York City...Storm surge may bring extra damage/flooding...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034938.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034938.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034938.shtml?cone#contents NHC expecting "Debby" to be at least a Tropical Storm/TS untill thursday...but lots of different models-so very hard to predict...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby
"Ernesto" 30% chance for next week...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.1;-46.4;3&l=gust&t=20240817/0000 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.1;-46.4;3&l=gust&t=20240817/0000 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.1;-46.4;3&l=gust&t=20240817/0000 After New York City "Debby" may follow north-east Canada coastline and mix up with other depressions above the North Atlantic west of Ireland...
But lots of crazy weather may be coming...East Asia did get a lot of extreme weather as well...A risk is "hot air/rain" getting into the Arctic...
"Debby" may hinder US war plans and worsen pandemics...(evacuation center spread).
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 06 Aug 2024 at 12:47am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5qPFkkzeY - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5qPFkkzeY or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5qPFkkzeY ; (WPDE-ABC15)
Where is Debby headed next? South Carolina could see historic flooding event
and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCc7vstITOE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCc7vstITOE or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCc7vstITOE Tropical Tidbits/TT;
[Monday] Debby a Severe Flooding Threat to Southeast U.S.
DJ, Warm ocean waters could see "Debby" becoming a hurricane (cat 1 most likely) again...however rain from "Debby" may cool coastal waters and reduce energy for regaining strength...
High pressure area's over the Atlantic an d central US slow down "Debby"-resulting in crazy amounts of rain over a limited area for a few days...
The ABC-weatherman comes up with earlier South Carolina floods-but rivers were already at high levels before the storms moved in...
The strong winds may follow the rain...storm surge another factor...DJ-also the direction of the winds matter...it could push river water against an influx of sea water resulting in strong flooding in low lying areas...But if the wind pushes river water westward/away from the Ocean a storm surge may be limited in its effects...
TT also looking at GFS-US and European weather models...Impossible to even make good estimates for the coming hours on where Debby may move...It could move westward again...bringing even more rain to the area where it came from...it could move east into the Atlantic earlier...if it reaches warm water and stays there longer it will get stronger...
So the https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034136.shtml?ero#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034136.shtml?ero#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/034136.shtml?ero#contents 5 day flood risk-by now covering all of the US east coast- is "as best as they can calculate"...
DJ-"reality check"-so much uncertainty that model will be incorrect...
The two extremes;
-Debby may stay over land most of the time...weaken faster than expected...be low/no risk within 24-48 hours...the most optimistic scenario
-Debby could move into warm Atlantic waters, get stronger faster...maybe even become a (major ???) hurricane...before making landfall in the middle of the week (thursday ?) -in a yet unclear coastal location... Maybe even again move into the Atlantic and reach the New York City area this weekend still as a strong storm with a storm surge and lots of rain...Still a strong system early next week going into Canada via New England...
Climate aspects is warm ocean water but also crazy weather over the US..."Debby" could mix up with storms from inside the US...
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The above reminds me of the unpredictability of how diseases develop...CoViD had a few "super spreaders" in its early phase...It is impossible to say if "superspreaders" made CoViD into a pandemic...
H5N1 very likely by now spread over more species than CoViD is...But they may see "co-spread" in some species/cases...CoViD creating room for H5N1...
Like weather-climate the basic underlying factor, in pandemics "hosts" are the basics...If "hosts" are protected against diseases then -factor 3=spread simply is that limited you will not see a pandemic...
Very likely lots of -in potential pandemic risks- failed to reach enough hosts to become a global pandemic risk...Both "spread" and "hosts" were limited...
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Trying to understand "complex systems" is basic in understanding pandemics..."Lab leaks" simply do not do that job unless one has a very agressive virus/bacteria/disease...but such a disease than would spread much faster..a different pattern than we did see with CoViD or now -still- see with H5N1...
Mpox may become more agressive-certainly if it gets airborne...and than climate/weather factors matter...Floodings can spread diseases...(also via rats, mice etc. seeking dry places...Sewage ending up as a bio-hazard in open water/flooded buildings)
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 10 Aug 2024 at 11:12pm
DJ; "Debby" did/does bring heavy rain to Canada-soon will move into the Atlantic. It will affect weathersystems resulting in "hot air" moving to NW Europe monday/tuesday..very strong thinderstorms (and flooding) following it...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby ;
Rainfall impacted nations across the Caribbean, especially Cuba and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Rico - Puerto Rico . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-116 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-117 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-118 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_emergency - States of emergency were declared for the states of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida - Florida , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28U.S._state%29 - Georgia , and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina - North and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina - South Carolina ahead of the storm. Heavy rains fell as a result of the storm moving slowly, with accumulations peaking near 20 inches (51 cm) of rain near https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarasota,_Florida - Sarasota, Florida as of August 7. Seven fatalities have been attributed to the storm so far, and preliminary damage reports are estimated to be at least US$2 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-Herald1-119 - A total of 64 fatalities have been confirmed, and preliminary damage estimates are more than US$5.06 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-Damage-100 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-Bloomberg.com-101 -
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html ;
The current temperature is higher than the temperature at this time of year in 2023, which is remarkable given that we were in an El Niño back in August 2023, while a transition to La Niña around August-October 2024 is expected, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf - NOAA .
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IPCC keeps downplaying the danger
Note that neither the 1903-1924 base (image top) nor the 1991-2020 base (above image) are pre-industrial. When using a genuinely https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past thirteen months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.
Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps downplaying the danger, e.g. by claiming that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold.
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The above image, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - earlier post , shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.
The IPCC has not only failed to warn about the size of the temperature rise from pre-industrial, the IPCC has also failed to warn about developments contributing to such a rise. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, the July 2024 temperature anomaly was huge over and around much of Antarctica.
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Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by https://www.facebook.com/paul.beckwith.9 - Paul Beckwith in a video in an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/10/temperature-rise-september-2023-and-beyond.html - earlier post . A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159604016414679 - discussed here and https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160085259739679 - here . For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this ' https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10159009753799679 - pattern effect ' could make a huge difference globally, as https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x - this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html - feedbacks page ).
DJ, Like pandemics "politics/experst for sale" simply deny the problem...only making matters much worse much faster...
"When your house is collapsing on top of you-you can try to deny it is happening...try to survive and get out of the ruins and learn yo have been fooling yourself !"
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 10 Aug 2024 at 11:26pm
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ or https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ ;
The U.S. has sustained 395 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2024). The total cost of these 395 events exceeds $2.770 trillion.
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2024 in Progress…
In 2024 (as of August 8), there have been 19 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States. These events included 15 severe storm events, 1 tropical cyclone event, 1 wildfire event, and 2 winter storm events. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 149 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2023 annual average is 8.5 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2019–2023) is 20.4 events (CPI-adjusted).
DJ, What costs do you include as Climate costs and why?
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4500 - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4500 or https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4500 ;
However, there is also a new threat that is being overlooked—the interaction between climate change and infectious diseases. A comprehensive meta-analysis revealed that climate change https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1 - could aggravate more than 50% of known human pathogens . Unfortunately, this is happening now.
Since the last big wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—the omicron variant—less than 2 years ago, a range of pathogens have suddenly emerged. Some are not well-known, such as mpox and chikungunya virus; others have been known about for centuries, such as Vibrio cholerae (which causes cholera) and Plasmodia parasites (which cause malaria). There is even the prospect that pathogens frozen in the permafrost, for which no immunity currently exists, may be released as the climate continues to warm.
Such a notion may be considered alarmist. And some people may think neither climate change nor epidemics are real or that both will pass. However, there is overwhelming https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/28/climate-crisis-future-pandemics-zoonotic-spillover - evidence that climate change is fueling disease outbreaks and epidemics and that it is not a matter of if, but when, such events will precipitate another pandemic.
DJ, Statistics have limits but how likely is it that climate "change" and "pandemics" -pure on statistics- are NOT related...?
One way of looking at it may be from a history-timeline perspective..."A big undetailed picture" with experts further looking for the details...African Swine Fever on a global scale 2018-2020 followed by CoViD in 2019...Mpox going wild since 2022...H5N1 has been around for some time but also now is at an unseen scale...
The Spanish Flu and World War One IS related...How it interacted is however part of a major discussion...
So linking climate "collapse" with pandemics is a "first step" -however it is a big step forward !
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 19 Aug 2024 at 12:10am
Arctic; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.700.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.700.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.700.html#lastPost ;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2024 of 3.92 million KM2, 0.75 million KM2 above the September 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million KM2, and 3rd lowest in the satellite record
Antarctic; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4600.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4600.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4600.html#lastPost ;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.46 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record. In only 2 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 is gain from now low enough to produce a new record low maximum
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023736.shtml?gm_track#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023736.shtml?gm_track#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023736.shtml?gm_track#contents
DJ; "Ernesto" looks to end up over the North Atlantic in the middle of this week-may result in warm air pushed towards the Arctic...
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: 19 Aug 2024 at 2:02am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2FLtwE8fxQ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2FLtwE8fxQ or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2FLtwE8fxQ ; Dr. Gilbz;
How “hairdryer winds” melt Antarctic ice
Föhn winds are a common occurrence in mountain regions around the world - from the Andes to the Alps to the Rockies. And... to the Antarctic Peninsula.
In fact, these "hairdryer winds" have a real impact on the climate of the Antarctic Peninsula, and can drive temperature extremes and melting.
DJ wind erodes ice, blows away snow...hot wind even increases melt...(fóhn in the Antarctic may increase temperature with 30C-close to meltingpoint in East Antarctica...The highest temperature in Antarctica was 18C + on the peninsula-also föhn linked...).
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 22 Aug 2024 at 11:31pm
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/08/22/weather-forecast-storm-lilian-ireland-hurricane-ernesto/ - https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/08/22/weather-forecast-storm-lilian-ireland-hurricane-ernesto/ or https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/08/22/weather-forecast-storm-lilian-ireland-hurricane-ernesto/ ;
The high tides was caused by a combination of the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto and very high tides which caused difficult conditions for motorists and pedestrians.
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Storm Lilian was named by the UK Met Office, which anticipates challenging conditions in England, Scotland and Wales.
It follows Storm Kathleen, which struck in April. The arrival at the 12th named storm in the season which runs from September to September marks the furthest through the list of names the western European storm naming group has got since the system’s introduction in 2015.
DJ, Remnants of Ernesto mixed up with a depression west of Ireland creating a new storm expected to move towards Norway...(there may be a growing risk hurricanes go in circles-from Africa to the US and then via the Canada coast back to NW Europe...some of them may end up near West Africa and go for a second round ?)
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https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html
DJ, Just like in wars, pandemics also in climate the dominant "strategy" is to buy time, kick the can down the road...
Creative statistics going for a "fitting" baseline for pre-industrial can keep the lie alive of "being under 1,5C+" while since 1700-1750 pre-industrial base line we may be 2,75C+....
In Excess Deaths statistics "re-define" "Excess" and -in statistics- there are no excess deaths...Even with both pandemics and heat waves resulting in much higher deaths...
Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments (such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect and https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html - sunspots reaching a peak) could all contribute to cause a temperature rise from https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial of over 10°C, in the process causing the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html - clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.
Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right.
DJ, CoViD, H5N1, Mpox may be very widespread both in human and non-human hosts...Diseases flying across the globe for free...
The disasters may be that large all "politics" can think of is war as distraction...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 30 Aug 2024 at 11:25pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyt7VzMfbzc - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyt7VzMfbzc or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyt7VzMfbzc ;
200 Meter Tall Megatsunami In Greenland Produced Unusual Effects
A link to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dickson_Fjord#History - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dickson_Fjord#History or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dickson_Fjord#History ;
In September 2023, a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami - megatsunami in Dickson Fjord sent seismic waves detected around the world. One seismic signal was detected from the rockslide which created the tsunami, and another https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infragravity_wave - very long-period signal from a week-long oscillating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche - seiche wave between the shores of the fjord that was triggered by the tsunami. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dickson_Fjord#cite_note-5 - In September 2023, a megatsunami in remote eastern Greenland sent seismic waves around the world, piquing the interest of the global research community.
DJ; Anton Petrov-maker of the YT video-claims there is an increase of these kinds of landslides. Seismic data and satellite pictures detect the results of such tsunamis.
DJ-My view; In theory even larger landslides/bigger tsunamis are possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#Disappearance - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#Disappearance or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#Disappearance;
A recent hypothesis suggests that around 6200 BCE much of the remaining coastal land was flooded by a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami - tsunami caused by a submarine landslide off the coast of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway - Norway known as the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide - Storegga Slide . This suggests "that the Storegga Slide tsunami would have had a catastrophic impact on the contemporary coastal Mesolithic population ... Britain finally became separated from the continent and in cultural terms, the Mesolithic there goes its own way." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#cite_note-weninger-14 - It is estimated that up to a quarter of the Mesolithic population of Britain lost their lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#cite_note-15 - The three Storegga Slides ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_language - Norwegian : Storeggaraset) are amongst the largest known https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_landslide - submarine landslides . They occurred at the edge of Norway's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_shelf - continental shelf in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Sea - Norwegian Sea , approximately 6225–6170 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era - BCE . The collapse involved an estimated 290 km (180 mi) length of coastal shelf, with a total volume of 3,500 km3 (840 cu mi) of debris, which caused a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleotsunami - paleotsunami in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Ocean - North Atlantic Ocean .
DJ, So underwater landslides can result in mega-tsunamis. Permafrost underwater "hills" collapsing due to warmer ocean water could result in such tsunamis.
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2024 at 1:04am
Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, has been severely affected by a prolonged heat wave during the summer of 2024.
Data from the Norwegian Centre for Data Service show that four observation stations in Svalbard recorded record-high average summer temperatures, with anomalies up to 3.0°C above normal.
Svalbard Airport, located at 78.14°N, recorded an average summer temperature of 8.5°C, setting a new record for the third year in a row. August 2024 was particularly extreme, with an unprecedented average temperature of 11.0°C, illustrating the severity of the heatwave.
This image, acquired on 28 August 2024, documents the effects of the heatwave, revealing large areas of glaciers around Longyearbyen without snow cover. The absence of snow accelerates the rapid melting of the ice, resulting in the massive sediment discharge seen in the island's coastal areas.
Our satellites play a crucial role in monitoring glaciers around the world, providing key information to help researchers evaluate the impact of climate change on the cryosphere.
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https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html;
In a cataclysmic alignment, the next El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025.
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High sunspots could line up with an upcoming El Niño and with further forcing by short-term variables, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.
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This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html - earlier post concluded. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C. Sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.25°C. Further forcing could be added by additional events, e.g. submarine volcano eruptions could add huge amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere.
DJ, So more sunspots and a strong-new-el nino could push temperatures up 0,75C on top of the 2,75C rise since 1700-1750....
"Politicians-for-sale" may put the base-line for pre-industrial at 2000 to stick to their lie of "still under 1,5C" ....
Climate & pandemics are very interlinked and both getting much worse much faster....The present "politicians" go for denial...NOT solutions...
DJ-I again am NOT any kind of expert; but ignoring problems most of the time results in problems getting worse...Since both climate and pandemics are global issues of fundamental importance-and politics goes for war-human survival is at risk...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2024 at 11:14pm
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/6/record-summer-temperatures-set-world-on-course-for-hottest-year-ever - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/6/record-summer-temperatures-set-world-on-course-for-hottest-year-ever or https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/6/record-summer-temperatures-set-world-on-course-for-hottest-year-ever ;
6 Sep 2024
Summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were the highest ever recorded, making it likely that this year could emerge as Earth’s hottest ever, according to the European Union’s climate change monitor.
Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) on Friday followed a season of https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/6/20/deadly-heatwave-in-us-mexico-made-more-likely-by-climate-change - heatwaves around the world that scientists said were intensified by human-driven climate change.
“During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.
“This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record,” she said.
Heat was exacerbated in 2023 and early 2024 by the cyclical weather phenomenon El Nino, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, though C3S scientist Julien Nicolas said its effects were not as strong as they sometimes are.
Meanwhile, the contrary cyclical cooling phenomenon, known as La Nina, has not yet started, he said.
Conversely, moving against the global trend, regions such as Alaska, the eastern United States, parts of South America, Pakistan and the Sahel desert zone in northern Africa had lower-than-average temperatures in August, said the report.
The planet’s changing climate continued to drive disasters this summer.
In Sudan, flooding from heavy rains last month affected more than 300,000 people and brought https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/21/what-has-caused-the-cholera-outbreak-in-sudan - cholera to the war-torn country.
Elsewhere, scientists confirmed climate change intensified Typhoon https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/7/24/streets-turn-into-rivers-as-typhoon-gaemi-sweeps-over-philippines - Gaemi, which tore through the Philippines, Taiwan and China in July, killing more than 100 people.
Climate targets missed
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, raising the likelihood and intensity of climate disasters such as droughts, fires and floods.
“The temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer will only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Burgess.
Governments have targets to reduce their countries’ emissions to try to keep the rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under the https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/4/the-paris-climate-agreement-and-why-it-matters - 2015 Paris climate agreement . But the United Nations has said the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of that deal.
Global temperatures in June and August broke through the level of 1.5C above the pre-industrial average – a key threshold for limiting the worst effects of climate change.
Scientists will not consider that threshold to be definitively passed until it has been observed being breached over several decades.
The average level of warming is currently about 1.2C, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
But C3S said the 1.5C level has been passed during 13 of the past 14 months.
In August, the average global temperature at Earth’s surface was 16.82C (62.28F), according to the European monitor, which draws on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations.
DJ, Politics/experts-for-sale go for denial by lifting the pre-industrial treshold...Why not go for 2000 as "pre-industrial" ?
North Pole; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.750.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.750.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.750.html#lastPost ;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2024 of 4.03 million KM2, 0.85 million KM2 above the September 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million KM2, and 5th lowest in the satellite record
and South Pole; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4650.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4650.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4650.html#lastPost ; Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 17.27 million km2, 0.28 million km2 above the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record. In only 2 of the 18 years from 2006 to 2023 is gain from now low enough to produce a new record low maximum
DJ, Polar ice is cooling the planet...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4112.0.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4112.0.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4112.0.html#lastPost;
Summary for SMB year 2023-2024 Climate scientists tell us that precipitation is increasing, though with more rain on snow events. They also tell us that melt is increasing, which the melt graph also shows.
This year has that despite very high melt, the SMB gain is close to the long-term average, which arithmetic says must mean precipitation was above the average.
In the longer-term AGW means a warmer, wetter Greenland, and climate science forecasts that due to higher melt and increased run-off the increase in precipitation is not enough to prevent annual SMB gains gradually decreasing in the years to come. (see graph next post)
The SMB gain of 368 GT plus GIS annual mass loss of around 250 GT tells us annual mass loss from run-off plus calving plus melting of marine-terminating glaciers and basal melt is probaly at least 600 GT per annum.
DJ...see next post
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2024 at 11:22pm
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html ;
Earth's Energy Imbalance is now about four times as high as it was a decade ago, as illustrated by the https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWULN7SbQAIJOCV.jpg:large - above image , by Eliot Jacobson. As a result, feedbacks are starting to kick in with greater ferocity.
Water vapor feedback
One such feedback is the water vapor feedback. The temperature rise results in more evaporation, i.e. more water vapor and heat will enter the atmosphere, much of which will return to the surface in the form of precipitation, but some will remain in the atmosphere, as there will be https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-3-2.html - 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming . As illustrated by the image below, created with https://psl.noaa.gov/ - NOAA data , surface precipitable water was at 27.181 kg/m² in August 2024, a record high for this month.
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How much more water vapor currently is in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial depends on how much the temperature has risen since https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial . The https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.
More ocean heat and water vapor moving to Arctic
The temperature rise also comes with stronger wind. An https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/why-stronger-winds-over-north-atlantic-are-so-dangerous.html - earlier post points at a https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/6/eaax7727 - study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.
Stronger wind speeds up ocean currents, enabling more ocean heat to move to the Arctic, while stronger wind also enables more water vapor to move to the Arctic and more rain to fall closer to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns. As a result, both heat and water vapor will increase in the Arctic.
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High levels of methane are already present over the Arctic and the water vapor feedback makes things worse. Additionally, more ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean can destabilize hydrates at the seafloor and cause methane eruptions, resulting in huge amounts of methane entering the atmosphere over the Arctic.
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As the Jet Stream gets more deformed due to polar amplification of the temperature rise, this can at times result in strong winds speeding up ocean currents and wind patterns that carry heat toward the Poles and.
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At times, part of this accumulated energy can, in the form of ocean heat and precipitable water, be abruptly transported to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns boosted by stronger wind and storms. This is illustrated by the https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/09/01/0400Z/wind/surface/level/anim=off/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-90.00,90.00,470/loc=86.100,86.884 - above image that shows unusually high amounts of precipitable water recorded near the North Pole on September 1, 2024, at 04 UTC (20 kg/m² at the green circle). This can be further facilitated by the formation of a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html - freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid to the Arctic Ocean.
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For more than 14 consecutive months the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures. On September 2, 2024, the temperature was 0.8°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record for that day of the year.
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Global sea ice extent was 21.04 million km² on September 4, 2024, a record low for the time of year, as feedbacks start kicking in with greater ferocity, including less albedo, latent heat buffer and emissivity, more water vapor, less lower clouds, Jet Stream changes, more emissions, lightning and forest fires, stronger rainfall and heatwaves causing more run-off of heat, and stronger storms that can push ocean heat toward the poles, all contributing to accelerate sea ice loss and the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html - this one .
DJ; Climate collapse=pandemics....and we are making both much worse...NOT STOPPING IT ! The only thing "under control" is information...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2024 at 10:40pm
DJ, Last week we did see rain in the Sahara-desert in Africa...also a depression kept moving around in that area...
https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
A level 2 was issued across Algeria mainly for damaging wind gusts and large hail.
N Africa ...
A subtle frontal boundary is forecast to initiate scattered to widespread storms as it crosses the region. Over the past days, substantial low-level moisture has advected quite far inland with multiple rounds of (severe) storms. Saturday will be no exception. The main threat will be severe wind gusts with fast-moving storms developing in unidirectional hodograph with 0-6 km bulk shear between 15 and 25 m/s. The strongest shear is forecast towards the S with ICON-EU and ECMWF painting a serious setup with 0-6/0-3 km bulk shear approaching 25 m/s and forecast hodographs suggestive of environment conducive to both intense supercells and bow-echoes. Such scenario warrants a Lvl 2 for multiple swaths of severe wind gusts and large hail.
DJ, Rain/storm is supposed to move south from the Sahara over the West African rain forests...into the Atlantic-to create hurricanes...This time a depression moved north instead of (following Earth rotation) west..now also bringing lots of rain in SW Europe...(mixed with Sahara-sand)...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Potential_Tropical_Cyclone_Six - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Potential_Tropical_Cyclone_Six or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Potential_Tropical_Cyclone_Six
DJ Hurricane "Francine" will reach the south of the US coming week...
A very strong hurricane season was expected...so we now only being at "F" -6th storm this late may be seen as -for now-good news... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ more is on its way...
DJ-"Storms" etc are in itself "normal". The climate collapse aspect may be in more and stronger storms also at places where they are not expected...SE Morocco-Algeria desert is one of those unexpected places...In Sudan (a.o.) rain did result in a dam breaking not far from Port Sudan...
Climate disasters on top of western made wars...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 12 Sep 2024 at 1:11am
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html ;
The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial base.
The image below featured in an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html - earlier post and was created with an image from the https://data.giss.nasa.gov/ - NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - here .
The image below, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html - earlier post and created with an image from the https://data.giss.nasa.gov/ - NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing).
Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html - cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html - sunspots expected to occur in July 2025. Further potential causes are discussed in this https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html - earlier post .
Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html - earlier post . A https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1 - 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html - earlier post .
DJ, Increase of glonal temperature-in general-will result in more -most-rain...Stronger storms but also a jet-stream "going wild"...So YES we may even end up with snow in the tropics and idiots claiming it is an indication for the coming of a new ice-age...
In Vietnam, Nigeria, Morocco, Sudan floods did kill dozens..
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Sep 2024 at 11:04pm
DJ-This weekend Central Europe may get the amount of rain it -in a "normal year" gets in 4 months...
https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
A level 2 was issued across NE Czechia, NW Slovakia and S-central Poland mainly for heavy convective rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across NW Austria, E Czechia and Slovakia mainly for heavy convective rainfall.
A level 2 was issued across Moldova, Ukraine and E Poland mainly for heavy rainfall and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued across Romania and NE Poland mainly for heavy rainfall and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
Deep low pressure system continues to affect much of central Europe with very heavy rainfall and also severe wind gusts.
***NOTE*** This forecast only covers the contribution of CONVECTION to severe weather. Non-convective rainfall and non-convective wind gusts are NOT covered. Please refer to the warnings of the national weather institutes for more information on these hazards.
Also; https://www.dw.com/en/europe-extreme-weather-warnings-in-germany-poland-austria/a-70206609 - https://www.dw.com/en/europe-extreme-weather-warnings-in-germany-poland-austria/a-70206609 or https://www.dw.com/en/europe-extreme-weather-warnings-in-germany-poland-austria/a-70206609 ;
Large parts of central https://www.dw.com/en/european-union-eu/t-17440066 - Europe are bracing for potential flooding this weekend with heavy rainfall expected across parts of Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria.
Up to 400 mm of rain is expected to fall on the highlands on the Polish-Czech border within just 72 hours, according to local meteorological stations, with consequences for surrounding regions and nearby towns and cities.
In https://www.dw.com/en/poland/t-19070837 - Poland , authorities have issued their highest weather warning in the southern voivodeships — or regions — of Lower Silesia, Opole and Silesia, while the mayor of the city of Wroclaw has convened a crisis committee. In 1997, a third of Wroclaw was flooded when the River Oder burst its banks.
"There is a realistic risk of local inundations from Friday to Sunday," said the Polish weather service.
DJ, A.o. Weather Watcher on YouTube doing a very good job by warning in time...
Lots of places get extreme weather. However if on top of the extreme weather there is also a lot of (longer term) economic damage the disaster even gets larger...
The extreme rain will be in higher laying area's-wich will translate into high river levels-most likely a.o. the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danube - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danube or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danube ...so flooding could go on down river for over a week...
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024234.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024234.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024234.shtml?cone#contents
"Gordon" may stay over the Atlantic-may not even become a hurricane...however https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-9;1&l=gust - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-9;1&l=gust or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-9;1&l=gust may indicate "Gordon" can become part of a list of depressions moving hot air to the Arctic...
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SE Asia dealing with typhones, South America with wild fires...
DJ-Climate collapse IS translating into all kinds of crazy weather...from extreme drought-in areas not used to it ...to flooding in the Sahara...
We ARE in a global climate disaster..."politics" again going for denial, kicking cans down the road-now have to face a brutal reality...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.1100.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.1100.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4176.1100.html#lastPost A discussion on if the Arctic melting summer season ended...
DJ-With lots of storms moving north it may be hard to predict...the lowest (sea)ice level tends to move towards october...Also ice/snow on Greenland, Canada, Siberia may face "bizarre months"...Possibly even "hot days" in november, december...
AGAIN-Polar ice is cooling the planet...the less ice the hotter the planet gets...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2024 at 3:20am
DJ, Heavy rain & storm -in itself- is NOT new...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Boris - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Boris or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Boris ;
Parts of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic - Czech Republic particularly near https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna - Vienna are under a red rain warning where extreme impacts from rainfall such as flooding, flash floods and landslides are likely. This is also the same for south-west https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland - Poland . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#cite_note-18 - On September 14, 2024, red alerts, indicating "intense meteorological phenomena", were issued in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#cite_note-CNNSept14-19 - Central Europe in grips of worst flooding in decades | DW News
DJ, some factors;
-More people living in areas at risk of flooding...So compared to other extreme weather events in the last decades more people/houses/bussinesses at risk
-But also the amount of rain/snow (for this time of year) is unprecedented...A few days ago extreme drought-30C+-wildfires...gave way to extreme rain and cold weather...
Very likely already 10+ people killed. Most of the damage-from SE Germany to Romania-however will come in the coming days...
Rivers with extreme level of water still have to come together...Inn ends up in Danube...both allready at record levels...so the water may have no place to go...
Damage to infra-structure, economy, could be "extreme"...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2024 at 10:31pm
DJ; "reality is complex"....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO_ZHg5OCAg - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO_ZHg5OCAg or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO_ZHg5OCAg ; "Just have a think"-UK;
Arctic Sea Ice minimum 2024. Three degrees Celsius warming now baked in!
Arctic Sea ice reaches it's minimum extent each year around the middle of September. This year is one of the lowest in recorded history. Ocean temperatures have been so 'off the charts' in 2023 and 2024 that scientists fear those waters have reached their capacity to mop up after us humans and are now starting to release that energy. On our current trajectory, by 2100, our planet will reach a temperature not seen for 3 MILLION years!. So...what's the plan???
DJ; A much more radical view; https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/will-we-be-alive-in-2025-who-will-survive-2025.html
DJ-I am NOT any kind of "expert" -just trying to make some sense...
https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-weather/t-19020379 - https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-weather/t-19020379 or https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-weather/t-19020379 ...
YES all of history we did have storms, extreme weather...
also YES climate collapse is worsening extremes....
Part of the question is "how to deal with it". The floods now ongoing in Central Europe are in a very widespread system of connected waterways...Via canals some of the extreme rain/melting snow-far away from the Rhine-river-system-may be "pumped" into that system...
So part of the flooding in Central Europe will be avoided by the push on some buttons in some control rooms....Water-in a normal time flowing via the Danube to the Black Sea-may now end up -via the Rhine-in the North Sea...
High pressure areas over Western Europe and Russia block a low pressure area over Central Europe. That "low" contains extreme amounts of rain because the Mediterranean Sea is record warm...
Extreme drought in some areas are unable to take up the (amounts of) rain...the ground because of drought turned into almost concrete...
Since weather is not 100% predictable one has to stay "within safe limits" in sending extreme levels of water in watersystems with "some room left"...If extra water ends up in the Rhine system-and we get lots of rain over Germany-than we may end up "transporting a disaster"....
Still compared to Nigeria, Sudan, Myanmar etc. the European system of canals, reservoirs etc. can "limit damage"....
Part of the "extreme weather" is also in temperatures dropping from hot to cold within a week...Snow above 1500 metres this early...with lots of melt expected soon...
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Just like pandemics in climate disasters poverty decreases chances...Increases risks...
If one wants to solve health crises, climate disasters-invest in education, family planning, healthcare...NOT in wars !
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Even if climate destruction now is "beyond repair" it is our duty to limit (further) damage the best we can...Even the best climate scientists can not oversee all of the very complex interactions...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2024 at 11:37pm
https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/09/lula-announces-measures-to-fight-amazon-drought-2018no-one-will-be-forgotten2019 - https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/09/lula-announces-measures-to-fight-amazon-drought-2018no-one-will-be-forgotten2019 or https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/09/lula-announces-measures-to-fight-amazon-drought-2018no-one-will-be-forgotten2019 ;
On the morning of September 10, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited the communities of S£o Sebasti£o do Curumitá and Campo Novo in Tefé and Manaquiri, near Manaus, https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br/acompanhe-o-planalto/noticias/2024/09/lula-visita-comunidades-afetadas-pela-seca-no-amazonas-e-anuncia-entrega-de-purificadores-de-agua-para-a-populacao - where he spoke with the local population about the impacts of the drought in Amazonas . Later that day, alongside the governor and several mayors from that state, he announced measures in Manaus to combat widespread fires and drought in the region.
DJ, Even countries like Brazil, Indonesia only can make limited steps in solving the effects of global climate collapse...
The Amazone-river (again) almost out of water IS a global-not only Brazilian- problem...
Extreme rains in places not used to that may destroy forests in other places...heat waves/wildfires...
Outcome is climate getting worse every hour...We have to face that problem NOT deny it !
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2024 at 3:47am
https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/historic-flooding-west-and-central-africa-leaves-communities-urgent-need - https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/historic-flooding-west-and-central-africa-leaves-communities-urgent-need or https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/historic-flooding-west-and-central-africa-leaves-communities-urgent-need ;
Countries across West and Central Africa, and especially Chad, Nigeria, Mali, and Niger, have been hit by the most severe flooding in decades, leaving up to four million people in urgent need of humanitarian aid. That is a more than threefold increase from the total number of people affected by flooding in the region last year. The flooding has killed more than one thousand people, displaced hundreds of thousands, and left widespread destruction across some of the world’s most fragile countries.
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Flooding has damaged or destroyed more than 300,000 homes and rendered health facilities and schools unusable across the region since the start of this unusually intense rainy season, while nearly 940,000 acres of agricultural land and over 36,000 cattle have been swept away by flood waters – robbing people of vital livelihoods, worsening economic prospects, and driving food insecurity among the most vulnerable. With critical infrastructure damaged or destroyed and large swaths of land unreachable, access to essential services like health care, education, and markets has been severely disrupted, while damage to latrines and other water sources has undermined sanitation and increased the risk of waterborne diseases.
DJ, Chad 500+ deaths, Niger 300+ deaths...
Such a pity;Statement by Administrator Samantha Power
DJ, s.power is a US war criminal.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samantha_Power - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samantha_Power or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samantha_Power
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2024 at 12:05am
DJ-A "Stop of AMOC-warm Atlantic gulfstream" would bring low temperatures to Europe...The new nonsense following the "1 meter sea level rise by 2100" pseudo "science"....
DJ-The major climate lie is NOT those that deny that there is a climate problem...The main lie is "it is under control"..."We are still under 1,5C pre-industrial" and other bla-bla...
Often linked with a "carbon budget"-we can -now-still INcrease CO2 because "later on" DEcreases are on theitr way...
Pseudo-green idiots...like biden/US democrats pushing US oil production record high but still claim to care about climate...
The German "green party" bunch of war criminals...Promoting war, ignoring climate...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html ;
Temperatures remain extremely high, even though La Niña conditions may already be present, as illustrated by the above image, showing sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) versus 1981-2011.
The image on the right shows Northern Hemisphere (45.00°,90.00°) SSTA on September 20, 2024. There are only very few cold spots, while massive amounts of ocean heat are present in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.
SSTA are extremely high in the North Atlantic, reaching a record high for the time of year on September 22, 2024, as illustrated by the image below (SSTA vs 1882-2011).
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The Gulf Stream keeps pushing Ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, and this can be accelerated by storms that are amplified due to high sea surface temperatures, deformation of the https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html - Jet Stream and a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html - freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic.
At the same time, Arctic sea ice starts expanding rapidly in extent at this time of year, effectively sealing off the Arctic Ocean and making it hard for heat to get transferred from the surface of the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.
As discussed in earlier posts, Arctic sea ice has become very thin, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. Sea ice constitutes a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html - latent heat buffer , consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains the same. Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.
DJ-We are IN !!!! climate collapse !!! Record amounts of rain in Africa, Japan...wildfires, extreme heat, droughts on many places...and it WILL get A LOT worse !!!
Again-those in power claiming a "carbon budget" are far worse than idiots like trump etc...
The "shore has to stop the ship"...because humans/politics do not "stop the ship"....
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.2;-45.0;3&l=gust - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.2;-45.0;3&l=gust or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.2;-45.0;3&l=gust gives an indication of storms on their way...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2024 at 12:33pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf_us-lsOXY - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf_us-lsOXY or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf_us-lsOXY "Helene" may become a major hurricane thursday-hitting Florida...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ (other storms on their way a.o. to Japan ?)
DJ-Some models expect storm for Western Europe also later this week-a low moving from Ireland to the North Sea...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 another strong storm forming in the Mid-Atlantic..."Isaac" 70% chance within 7 days...
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In Central Europe still flooding..clearing damage-over 20 persons killed...
The jetstream going wild may bring surprises...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2024 at 11:49pm
DJ-We are IN climate collapse...
Much to warm ocean water producing a lot of storms and rain -resulting in lots of flooding...
"Helene" may interact with a low over the central US. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vBSiJqbMrE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vBSiJqbMrE or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vBSiJqbMrE ;
Hurricane Helene hits Florida and then we see a Fujiwhara effect over the South
DJ, So two depressions circle around eachother (weather ballet) ..."Helene" may become a cat 3-"major" hurricane-hit Florida in a few days and will be pulled NW instead of NE...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 "Isaac" may be forming on the Atlantic...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=32.8;-45.9;3&l=gust&t=20241008/1800 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=32.8;-45.9;3&l=gust&t=20241008/1800 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=32.8;-45.9;3&l=gust&t=20241008/1800 may indicate that IF "Isaac" forms it may not be there very long...(at least limited indications...much too early).
Ventusky has a hurricane 920/925 hPa around october 7...(US GFS model) NE of Cuba...Also lots of storms for (North) West Europe...
https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
A level 2 was issued across N Portugal into NW Spain mainly for excessive rain.
DJ, Where extreme rain falls-and the timing of it-matters...
Here in NL weather-people watched Central European flooding...Dealing with amounts of rain-in 24/48 hours-normally seen in two/three months did result in floodings...
DJ-At the moment here in NL rivers (etc) are not that high. NL is "flat"...so a large amount of rain will spread over a lot of surface. Rivers able to deal with a lot of it...
For NL the danger may be in lots of rain in France -even more than in Germany. The Meusse/Maas river may be the most vulnerable-run out of capacity if (NE)France has a lot of rain...The Rhine-river dykes in Germany could break-that flooding can reach the east of NL...
The higher risk is in several extreme rain events shortly after each other...If also a west-storm pushes the Northsea water into the river than extreme rain may have nowhere to go...
NL did see "very strong storms" even up to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Modern_scale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Modern_scale or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Modern_scale a force 12-"hurricane-like" does happen (once in a decade ?)...
A "major hurricane"-like scenario may cover a lot of Western Europe... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Extended_scale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Extended_scale or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#Extended_scale ...
The damage it can do will depend also on the direction of the wind. A North West "super storm" may push the Northsea waves towards the coastline...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 25 Sep 2024 at 12:26pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GvflJRo75M - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GvflJRo75M or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GvflJRo75M reopical Tidbits;
[Wednesday] Hurricane Helene to Bring Extreme Hazards to Florida; Landfall Thursday Evening
Wednesday video update on Hurricane https://x.com/hashtag/Helene?src=hashtag_click - #Helene , expected to bring extreme impacts to parts of https://x.com/hashtag/Florida?src=hashtag_click - #Florida and hazardous weather to most of the state. Landfall is expected in the Florida panhandle Thursday evening.
Helene is unfortunately shaping up to be a high-end event, and for some counties the impacts could exceed that of most hurricanes in recent memory. Please take this storm seriously, make preparations, evacuate if necessary, and stay safe this week.
DJ, Low could go 900-920 hPA=possibly cat 5...Move into the US in NW direction then make a turn to go NE-lots of uncertainty...Lots of rain. Storm surge...
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For NW Europe ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XszdHgiKBDE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XszdHgiKBDE or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XszdHgiKBDE Noodweer BeNeLux-in Dutch)
Storm Aitor may be coming friday....
https://www.surinenglish.com/spain/aitor-the-first-major-storm-the-season-20240924144729-nt.html - https://www.surinenglish.com/spain/aitor-the-first-major-storm-the-season-20240924144729-nt.html or https://www.surinenglish.com/spain/aitor-the-first-major-storm-the-season-20240924144729-nt.html ;
According to Spain's state weather agency (Aemet), Aitor, the first major storm of the 2024-2025 season, will bring strong winds, stormy seas and heavy rain to areas in the north and west of the Spanish mainland.
The centre of the squall will situated to the southwest of Ireland at midday on Wednesday, from where it will favour the arrival of very strong winds to Spain, with gusts that can exceed 80 or 90 km/h in areas especially in the mountains of the north of the mainland or points on the coast, according to Aemet spokesperson, Rubén del Campo.
https://www.galwaybeo.ie/news/met-eireann-storm-aitor-tracker-9578420 - https://www.galwaybeo.ie/news/met-eireann-storm-aitor-tracker-9578420 or https://www.galwaybeo.ie/news/met-eireann-storm-aitor-tracker-9578420 ;
Storm Aitor is being developed by a low jet stream that will be moving across the south of England by Wednesday and Thursday. Paul Blight has said that people should expect a very wet end to the month.
"Another deep low-pressure centre moving east & developing under a fast-paced Jet moving across Southern England on Wednesday/Thursday", Paul said. "Expect further flooding issues in what is going to turn out a very wet month. Risk Strong winds through the Channel / N France."
Storm Aitor will bring volatile weather with it and potentially dangerous conditions over northern Europe.
Amatuer weather expert, Christian, posted on Twitter: "Next weekend should be very unstable and potentially dangerous over NW Europe especially over France due to particularly heavy rains caused by the divergence of the jet stream with a high transport of water vapour from the Atlantic We will see the developments in the next few days."
See also https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/
DJ. again Ocean very hot=lots of energy/rain...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 27 Sep 2024 at 1:39am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
DJ-Major-cat 4- hurricane "Helene" is bringing destruction to the SE of the US...225 km/h wind, storm surge, extreme rain...The "good news" is for now "Helene" is moving fast...
"Isaac" did become a hurricane...may be moving towards western Europe...
NHC has two other areas to watch...90%-mid Atlantic, 30%-Yucatan/Central America chance of becoming a storm within a week...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.1;-50.8;3&l=gust&t=20241011/0000 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.1;-50.8;3&l=gust&t=20241011/0000 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.1;-50.8;3&l=gust&t=20241011/0000
Looking towards mid-October we could see FOUR named storms...The south of the US may see more "extreme weather"...Possibly even western Europe could face the risk of a cat2 (???) hurricane ???? Mid October ????
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names
Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton and possibly even Nadine may show up...
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The climate collapse aspect may be in extreme hot Ocean waters translating to stronger storms and more extreme rain...
It does increase risks of hurricanes reaching Europe, still as a hurricane....
The further we sink into climate collapse the more "bizarre/deathly" weather"events" will become...."Helene" may bring a 20 feet=6 meter stormsurge...
The discussed category 6 or 7 hurricanes may be both much larger and a lot worse...
"Florida" hit by several hurricanes-like lots of vulnerable land areas-may not get time to recover, face de-population...To much risks to live there...
Climate collapse does damage food production, energy, logistics, "defense/war"...and it will only get worse...
DJ-Even if we-from now on" go 100% "green" a lot of climate collapse is "backed in"...
Like with pandemics "safety-bubbles" may end up being created (by-for the very rich that are most responsible for both climate collapse and pandemics)....
Both climate collapse and pandemics can kill billions of humans...We have to try to limit that...Denial is resulting in exponential worsening of problems...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 28 Sep 2024 at 11:51pm
DJ, "Joyce" started, "Kirk" may be forming..."Helene" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects killed over 65 people in the US...damage over 22 billion...
And -YES- hurricanes are NOT new...But the climate aspect is in the extreme rain resulting in very major damage inside the US hundreds of miles from any coast....
Nepal now dealing with extreme rain/flooding...deaths may be 100+...
The big problem however is the repeated damages, long time disruption of logistics...Some areas becoming impossible to live...
Droughts/heat kill tens-of-thousends...however "the bigger picture" is more extreme weather making food/water problems much worse high speed...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Season_effects
DJ-So far this 2024-25 season did see two "catastrophic" storms in september in Europe...
"Isaac" is moving over the Atlantic towards Iceland... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ...transporting warmth (by air and water) north....
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost
Really extraordinary stuff going on in the archipelago at the moment with ice MELTING in late September. You can also see the affects of the ice moving away from the archipelago with vast amounts of open water developing. It will of course close again as the winds shift but it's another ominous sign of the changing times. I did think a while back we could see something unprecedented along that region given the below average thickness but I thought at the end of August/early September, not late September.
The warm conditions is also affecting snow cover in terms of a lack of it which of course then produces even further warming. There is signs the CAA may finally cool down but still going to be well above average.
Speaking of above average, maybe the high is producing average to below average temperatures over the ice(I'm always dubious of the GFS2M temperatures, it seems to have a cold bias compared to the ECM) but elsewhere it's well above average and I don't mean just the 2M temperatures but the 850's, late September going into October and nowhere is -15hpa or below and that is not looking like changing. There is no doubt in my mind with climate change, the PV is slower to develop and its why the frequency of slow gains at the beginning of the freezing season seems to be getting more common.
DJ...storms may move (relative) warm air up north all year...So it will be increasingly hard to determine the status of the Arctic (or Antarctic) ice...
Even if there is ice-it may contain warmth in the sea water under the ice-resulting in more methane release...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html ;
Eruptions from hydrates occur at great force, since the methane expands 160 times in volume when it vaporizes, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column, which especially applies to the many areas where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere.
DJ, My non-expert view; Growing risk of "explosive" methane eruptions able to give "seismic events" that may result in a chain-reaction...
Abrupt climate collapse coming closer...Most people may not be able to understand "what hit them"..... https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
DJ-Like with "war"-humans are self destructive ! Better face it to deal with it then to go on denying it...
Like with pandemics time ran out-only last resort options may be open...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 29 Sep 2024 at 10:59pm
DJ, Flooding in Nepal may have cost over 200 lives, "Helene" in the US 100+...main issue is economic damage, infrastructure gone...
Nepal needs tourism, US economic damage will be in the billions...
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/09/natlprep-vigilance-is-key.html - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/09/natlprep-vigilance-is-key.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/09/natlprep-vigilance-is-key.html ;
Note: This is the 28th day of https://www.ready.gov/september - National Preparedness Month . Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NatlPrep #BeReady or #PrepMonth hashtags.
This month, as part of NPM24, I’ll be rerunning some updated preparedness essays, along with some new ones.
#18,322
Thirty-six hours after Helene made landfall in north Florida, more than 3 million customers remain without power across 10 states (SC, GA, NC, FL, VA, KY, WV, IN, TN), tens of thousands of families are displaced due to flood waters or damage, and rebuilding for some will take months or even years.
As https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/09/nhc-helene-now-hurricane-rapid.html - we discussed prior to landfall , some of the worst damage has occurred hundreds of miles inland, long after the system had been downgraded to a tropical storm. And with rivers and streams still rising, and with weakened dams and levees still under pressure, the disaster is far from over.
Losses may run into the tens of billions of dollars, and yet, it could have been much worse. Had Helene tracked just 80 miles further to the east, the entirety of the west coast of Florida would have taken a horrendous blow, and several major cities might be uninhabitable (as was New Orleans in 2005), for weeks or months.
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I don't know where the next big disaster will occur, or when. I only know that natural disasters are becoming bigger and more common, and the next one (even if we only consider the United States) may only be days or weeks away.
DJ, The "big disaster" is a chain of smaller disasters...never ending, only getting worse...
Extremely warm S.S.T. Sea Surface Temperature= lots of wind and rain "somewhere"...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ has still "Isaac" and "Joyce"..."Twelve" will become major hurricane "Kirk"...may not hit land...Two other systems have 50% and 60% chance to become a named storm within a week...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects "Helene" may have cost 113 (US) lives...damage over 22 billion US$...
Part of the climate collapse story is repeated disasters...over and over, never ending-only getting worse....Creating/worsening economic, health crises...
Both the area that may see hurricane-like storms is getting larger-matter of time before Europe gets hit...Also category 6 and 7 storms-stronger, more rain...and the seize of storms is going up...
A major hurricane could cover ALL of the US....do damage running into the hundreds of billions...repair-if any-may take years...Only one does not get that time untill the next extreme weather event does its disasters...
------
Like in wars, pandemics...
Some "politicians" claim there is a "carbon-budget", "based on a 2000 pre-industrial base line" one may claim temperature rise still is under 1C....
Playing with "pre-industrial base lines" to "keep the economy going" is insane..."Saving the economy-let CoViD do its thing" was another act of crazy "leaders"....
The very hard alternative is a global state of emergency. Decrease of long distance travel by 95%...Preparing for disasters on their way....
We may not want to see the very brutal reality...closing your eyes makes the fall even harder/crises worse...Damage control the last available option...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.0.html#lastPost ;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.msg411337.html#msg411337 - Re: The 2024/25 Arctic freezing season
« Reply #44 on: September 29, 2024, 02:48:33 PM »
I agree it is quite a remarkably slow start. At this stage much of the holes in the pack have filled in, but satellite images are still showing holes in the pack at the Laptev/ESS side.
There is some deep cold about. Alert Nunavut was down to -22.5° recently. The chart attached shows that temperatures there made a substantial dip on the 24th as the cold Anticyclonic air over the pack moved down. This is after a mild start there earlier in the month. New date max records at Alert were set on 13th and 14th of the month.
But up to now this cold has been very much confined to the high Arctic. There is plenty of heat still about both on land and stored in the sea. Fairbanks Alaska has just recorded its latest ever first frost and much further south Phoenix Arizona has just set a new September heat record of 47.2 C (117F). Very unusual for a heat record to be set so late in the month.
There has been no Arctic outbreaks over north America and snow cover as Paul mentioned is still sparse. The pack has rotated a little away from the CAA recently and ice is also moving down along the east coast of Greenland.
Progress today is still slow just a bit of progression towards Wrangel and towards the Laptev. Beaufort continues very slow.
DJ, Ventusky has NO (major) hurricanes in its calculations moving into the US/land...coming two weeks...However storms may push heat up into the Arctic (both warm water & air)...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2024 at 6:05am
https://www.rodekruis.nl/nieuwsbericht/recordinzet-voor-natuurrampen-in-2024-wij-openen-giro-661/ - https://www.rodekruis.nl/nieuwsbericht/recordinzet-voor-natuurrampen-in-2024-wij-openen-giro-661/ or https://www.rodekruis.nl/nieuwsbericht/recordinzet-voor-natuurrampen-in-2024-wij-openen-giro-661/ Dutch Red Cross-google translated;
Record commitment for natural disasters in 2024: we open giro 661
Posted on September 30, 2024
2024 is already a record year for natural disasters for the Red Cross. Never before have our aid workers provided assistance on such a large scale during floods, tropical storms and periods of heat and drought. That's why we open giro 661, to help people in the most vulnerable situations affected by extreme weather.
From Sudan to Bangladesh, from Brazil to Central Europe: every continent has to deal with extreme weather. This year, the Red Cross has already provided assistance with 79 natural disasters worldwide. For comparison: in 2023 there were 58 and in 2022 only 43.
Millions of people in trouble
Never before have we seen so many floods, storms, heat waves and prolonged droughts on such a large scale. Some countries have even been hit hard several times. In countries such as Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Sudan, entire villages are inundated by heavy flooding. Five million people in Bangladesh have also been affected by enormous rainfall.
Super Typhoon Yagi was one of the strongest storms ever to hit Southeast Asia, killing more than 200 people in Myanmar. Hundreds of thousands of people, who often already live in refugee camps, have to look for a safe place again. And due to prolonged drought in countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe, harvests fail again and again.
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The poorest people are hit hardest
Derk Segaar, head of International Aid at the Red Cross, sees the harsh reality. “We see time and time again that the poorest people are hit the hardest. They often already face poverty and hunger, and now they also lose their homes, their income and sometimes even their loved ones. Fortunately, in Europe, most countries have money to help people. But in many other parts of the world, people depend on aid organizations such as the Red Cross for temporary shelter, food and clean water.”
Extreme weather: the new reality
Climate change is causing more and more intense natural disasters, causing more damage. This means that more people need to be helped, and that requires extra money. Derk explains: “The Red Cross is preparing for even more natural disasters, especially if the earth continues to warm. Extreme rainfall and heat will increasingly become part of our daily lives. Unfortunately, this will only make our help even more necessary.”
Please help
No house. No doctor. No harvest. Extreme weather is destroying the lives of millions of people worldwide. The Red Cross is ready to help them. You too? We not only provide basic necessities such as shelter, clean drinking water and medical assistance, we also help better prepare for the next disaster. You can help by donating via the button below.
DJ(see link)
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2024 at 10:40pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene ;
Hurricane Helene ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English - / - h - ˈ - iː - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/6/62/En-us-Helene.oga/En-us-Helene.oga.mp3 - - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:En-us-Helene.oga - ⓘ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:Pronunciation_respelling_key - - EEN) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-1 - was a large, deadly, catastrophic, and fast-moving https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone - tropical cyclone . It was the strongest on record to strike the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bend_%28Florida%29 - Big Bend region of Florida and it devastated parts of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_United_States - Southeastern United States .
DJ, part of the reason it could do so much damage was the speed in wich it moved inland...Areas far away from the coast were confronted with an -unseen- hurricane not supposed to get that far inland...
Extreme wind and rain could do a lot of damage because the area was not prepared for such a storm...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241015/1800 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241015/1800 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241015/1800 ...
Over a week -october 9- "Kirk" could be still a hurricane and get very close to the UK/Europe...Another storm may follow the same route-could be a risk in 10 days...
Europe is NOT ready for "major hurricanes"....
Ventusky also has another system that may be a risk for Florida within a week-10 days...
So repeated storms make repair a "hard job"...
-----------
In history people moved to unknown places...The vikings in North America may have gotten integrated with "Indians" or died...Other settlements in "new worlds" also may have ended in disaster...
Climate collapse may become a problem for parts of North America, Australia...resulting in depopulation.
Australia has coal and sheep...Both may not be enough to provide the present Australian population enough of an income...
Some islands, but also low lying grounds, may be at such high risks for storms it would be wise to "desinvest"...
DJ-Here in NL there are some discussions on how to react to rising sea levels, flood risks from rain...More room in rivers is part of an answer...
A city like Gouda is build on "sinking grounds"...Several million people in NL may live in areas now seen as higher risk...
It is part of a discussion on where to build new houses (plans are for 400,000 new houses the coming years...). (Rail)roads, other infrastructure (electricity, pipelines) do see increasing problems because of droughts or extreme rain...
-------
DJ-It may be wise to have some basic ideas on how NW Europe can react to a category 5 hurricane...Such a hurricane NOW in the UK-NL/NW Europe can result in hundreds of billions € damage, tens-of-thousends killed...
Preparing for -for now- extreme scenarios would be wise...
Till 2019 the idea of NL getting over 40C temperatures was seen as unlikely...but we did see such extremes...
A very warm Atlantic + a high speed moving hurricane could result in a "very strong storm" also reaching NW Europe...
If it would reach the Arctic it would do a lot of damage to the sea ice...Greenland/Canada land ice...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.800.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.800.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.800.html#lastPost ;
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: : Another month gone, another look back at September
Onn September 30 2024 the 365 day trailing average of daily sea ice extent was 10.06 million km2, a fall of just 7k km2 in the month, 0.41 milliom km2 above the longterm linear trend and 0.43 million km2 above the record low in March 2021.
Nevertheless, average daily sea ice extent change from now could reduce this average by over 0.5 million km2 in the next 12 months to a new record low around mid-2025.
From this and the previous post it can be seen that the data leans to a significant reduction is sea ice extent during 2025, but .............................?
DJ, a strong storm may change the picture...Resulting in further global warming for every km2 ice loss...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Oct 2024 at 4:57am
A small windmill-costs around 2500,-€ could provide a household in all its energy needs...
https://www.celltechnologies.nl/ - https://www.celltechnologies.nl/ or https://www.celltechnologies.nl/
https://www.gelderlander.nl/brabant/kleine-windmolen-voor-thuis~af936b80/ - https://www.gelderlander.nl/brabant/kleine-windmolen-voor-thuis~af936b80/ or https://www.gelderlander.nl/brabant/kleine-windmolen-voor-thuis~af936b80/
DJ-Both links in Dutch...(google translate !)
produces 2500 to 3000 kwh per year by using the wind twice...
Does not make much noise so could be put in a garden or against a wall, on a roof...
Renewable energy can be part of a way out of the climate crisis...Taxing fossil energy could give room for making renewable energy cheaper...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Oct 2024 at 9:46am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names
and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144702.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144702.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144702.shtml?cone#contents
"Leslie" is forming-expected to become a tropical storm soon.
More and more models indicating next week (october 8-15 ??) Western Europe may see "severe weather"/a hurricane ? US deaths from "Helene" now 180 + (damage 27 billion+ US$)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes
DJ-My estimate-2024 will end up in top 5...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes#/media/File:1980-_Cost_of_billion_dollar_hurricanes_-_US_-_variwide_chart_-_NOAA_data.svg - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes#/media/File:1980-_Cost_of_billion_dollar_hurricanes_-_US_-_variwide_chart_-_NOAA_data.svg or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes#/media/File:1980-_Cost_of_billion_dollar_hurricanes_-_US_-_variwide_chart_-_NOAA_data.svg
1980 to 1990 damages 41 billion total
1990-to 2000 111 billion
2000 to 2010 389 billion
2010 to 2020 487 billion....
2020 to so far now allready over 300 billion...
This year allready at #10 of most costliest Atlantic hurricane seasons...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Oct 2024 at 10:30pm
Part 1,
https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net or https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net ;
Damage estimates across the storm’s rampage range between $95 billion and $110 billion, potentially making this one of the most expensive storms in modern U.S. history, said chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter of AccuWeather, a commercial forecasting company.
and https://www.okdoomer.io/it-was-unthinkable-then-it-happened/ - https://www.okdoomer.io/it-was-unthinkable-then-it-happened/ or https://www.okdoomer.io/it-was-unthinkable-then-it-happened/ ;
This weekend, children were among those who drowned in a hurricane that battered the entire southeastern United States. North Carolina experienced their https://fortune.com/2024/09/29/hurricane-helene-total-damage-economic-impact-estimate-110-billion/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - worst flooding in more than a century. Cities like Atlanta were dumped with a foot of rain in 48 hours, the worst since 1878. Estimates for property damage alone have already https://www.inc.com/reuters/hurricane-helene-damages-range-between-95-110-billion.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - run up to $110 billion, and it will probably go higher. Emergency workers have rescued hundreds of people, trapped on rooftops of homes and hospitals. Thousands are https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-helene-leaves-dozens-dead-millions-without-power-in-the-southeastern-us-heres-what-we-know-and-what-to-expect-next-202223010.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - taking refuge in shelters. More than 2 million are without power. Many of them are also without food or fuel.
People all over the country pleaded for rescue workers to save friends and family from the rising waters, but they couldn’t reach them in time.
The death toll is running into the hundreds.
Floods have closed or completely washed away major roads and highways across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Roads are also closed in parts of South Carolina and Virginia. In North Carolina, https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/30/us/helene-north-carolina-asheville-communites/index.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - nearly 300 roads are shut, including highways. Many of them will stay closed for months.
I have family in Asheville, friends in Boone.
People are trapped.
And hungry.
The floods in the southeast happened on the heels of devastating floods https://apnews.com/article/central-europe-european-union-floods-climate-change-damage-rain-5e90744008e4bc1404bbfd181f09b32f?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - throughout central Europe , killing dozens and causing billions in damage. They weren’t just bad. They were the worst in recorded history, by far. As we speak, a typhoon with 200km winds is https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/super-typhoon-krathon-taiwan-tracker-flights-storm-surge-latest-b2621720.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - heading straight for Taiwan with rainfall expected to be as bad or worse as Helene. The entire world writhes in chaos.
While politicians send thoughts and prayers to victims and generate press by touring the disaster areas, it’s worth pointing out that Congress cut disaster funding out of their most recent funding bill. According to The Daily Climate, FEMA’s https://www.dailyclimate.org/congress-passes-funding-bill-without-disaster-aid-despite-looming-hurricane-2669294005.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - disaster relief fund “is in significant deficit, facing a $3 billion shortfall by February 2025 without additional funding.” As one expert said, disaster relief programs “have no money in the bank, essentially, to help people in supporting these long-term recovery and rebuilding efforts.” From https://www.marketplace.org/2024/09/27/as-helene-barrels-into-the-gulf-coast-fema-faces-shortfall-for-longer-term-recovery/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - FEMA’s budget has to account for how much it needs to respond to emergencies in real-time, which includes expenses like evacuations, shelters, and food, plus the costs associated with longer-term rebuilding and recovery.
From Politico’s E&E News:
The federal government is facing potentially catastrophic shortcomings in its ability to pay for disaster response due to increasingly costly damage from hurricanes, flooding and wildfires — and the unwillingness of Congress to provide the money.
The head of Homeland Security himself began warning the government about FEMA’s shortfall earlier this summer. The office is responding to roughly twice as many major disasters as they were eight years ago. According to an https://fortune.com/2024/07/12/fema-aid-requests-denied-disaster-relief-fund-natural-disasters-hurricane-beryl/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - article in Fortune, FEMA has denied relief to a growing number of cities and states, including Massachusetts when they experienced their worst floods in 200 years. Multiple experts have underscored the need to increase FEMA’s budget so that it can manage the surging number of disasters.
That didn’t happen.
In July, FEMA https://wwmt.com/news/local/governor-whitmer-fema-disaster-relief-reconsideration-letter-president-joe-biden-major-disaster-declaration-portage-patricia-randall-mayor-funding-businesses-impact-weather-kalamazoo-county-west-michigan?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - denied disaster relief aid to Michigan after a series of devastating tornadoes. Governor Gretchen Whitmer personally wrote Biden an appeal pleading for the money. Her letter says, “Damage reports continue to come in as people have lost their homes and businesses. I am appealing the denial of a presidential disaster declaration so we can deliver critical financial assistance to support our resilient families, businesses, and communities.”
She hasn’t heard back yet.
Frustration has grown over the last several years as FEMA denies more requests because they don’t meet the minimum threshold for a disaster declaration. They appear to be raising their cutoff. Given the record number of disasters with no corresponding budget increase, that only makes sense.
So while the news might be reporting that the president is authorizing disaster relief funding for Helene, those funds are running on empty. FEMA is having to https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/fema-disaster-relief-funding-2024-hurricane-season/3622393/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - implement what it calls Immediate Needs Funding guidance (INF). It enables them to fund emergency relief efforts while they pause longer-term mitigation and disaster recovery projects. It also allows them to continue paying funds out to survivors of disasters if their request has already been completed. So while FEMA can still operate, the truth remains that they don’t have anywhere near enough money to help these states rebuild what’s been lost.
There’s no clear information so far about what help awaits the survivors of Hurricane Helene. When you read accounts of survivors from prior disasters, you find many of them facing an absolute nightmare, filling out endless paperwork while grieving catastrophic losses, waiting months or years for payments to start rebuilding their lives. In the meantime, they have to survive somehow, often moving wherever they can find a job to get by.
Climate scientists predicted this.
In 2019, a https://environment.princeton.edu/news/100-year-floods-will-happen-every-one-to-30-years-according-to-new-coastal-flood-prediction-maps/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - study in Nature Communications said that the likelihood of catastrophic 100-year floods has essentially tripled. They can now happen every 30 years or even once every few years. A more recent https://news.agu.org/press-release/100-year-floods-could-occur-yearly-by-end-of-21st-century/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - study in 2023 indicates that these storms will happen every 9-15 years by 2050. That means we will see another Hurricane Helene anytime between now and 2060. We could see several. Toward the end of the century, they will likely become annual events.
My daughter is six.
If she makes it to her 50s or 60s, she’s going to live through a Hurricane Helene almost every single year. Even before then, she’ll live through one roughly every decade. Imagine the cumulative damage of five Helenes.
Let’s zoom out:
We’ve barely entered the age of consequences. FEMA has already started running out of money halfway through hurricane season. They’re already having to pause some operations to prioritize emergency operations.
Imagine what happens to infrastructure when states have to rebuild entire roads, highways, and cities every 5-10 years because they get flooded and washed away in storms that used to happen once every hundred years. We have the science and engineering to build structures capable of withstanding that kind of weather, but it’s expensive and takes time to deploy. Doing that would require a level of coordination that our leaders continually fail to demonstrate.
Congress already doesn’t care.
Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/ukraine-aid-congress/index.html?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - announce billions more in funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Since 2022, combined aid to these countries has exceeded $200 billion. Compare that to FEMA’s https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority/bill-summary-homeland-security-fiscal-year-2024-appropriations-bill-2?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - annual budget of barely $20 billion, a small fraction of the projected cost of Hurricane Helene’s damage.
Our politicians are funding war while abdicating their most basic responsibilities to help their own citizens during times of chronic crisis, with millions of people now struggling without food, water, fuel, or shelter. It is a vast understatement to call this reckless and irresponsible.
It is evil.
As for the MAGA climate deniers, it’s nothing short of insane denial to call this chaos “weather.” It’s catastrophically deluded to post articles like Matt Taibbi did recently, calling for vague optimism with statements like “We’ll figure it out.”
We are not figuring it out.
We are floundering.
This has been happening for years now, and for years I’ve done my best to chronicle it. You cannot possibly say we live in a functional democracy, with leaders who care about human rights, while this obscene neglect continues. Americans cannot be expected to continually crowdfund each other’s salvation while giving a quarter of their livelihoods to a corrupt, warmongering government that drowns them in platitudes about hope and justice.
When government agencies https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/08/08/noaa-updates-dire-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/74720790007/?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - predicted roughly twice as many hurricanes this year than the historical average, with a “strong and violent start,” climate deniers and even liberal optimists blew it off as more fearmongering.
The predictions weren’t just accurate.
They were understated.
On top of a negligent government, American culture has become a cesspool of toxic positivity, with a growing majority of the public increasingly concerned with vibes and contrived, forced normalcy that leaves everyone more vulnerable to tragedies like Helene. We can’t afford to keep going in this direction.
While our media and politicians focus on war, scandals, and feel-good moments, the world continues to https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies?ref=the-sentinel-intelligence.net - subsidize the fossil fuel industry at $7 trillion. Our current government and their cheerleaders in the media brag about turning the U.S. back into a leading producer of oil and natural gas.
That’s also evil.
It’s downright shameful in the wake of genocide and historic floods to talk about which administration will be worse for the planet. True leadership would promise action and accountability now, not seek to alleviate their complicity and responsibility by pointing fingers at someone else.
This year, hurricane season will close at the end of November.
We don’t know what will happen next.
Some of us have wondered if there’s anywhere on this continent, or the entire world, where we could go to escape or at least forestall this nightmare. The mountains of Appalachia offered a little hope, if you could possibly afford to get there. It was unthinkable that floods from a hurricane would touch that area. Then it happened. This weekend, we learned definitively that no place is safe. We’re only as safe as the house that shelters us. If it falls, we’re only as safe as what we can carry with us when we have to flee, maybe never to return.
For the last several years, many of us have tried to generate a portrait of our future based on studies, statistics, history, and our imaginations. We’ve read books like Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry for The Future and Octavia Butler’s The Parable of The Sower. We’ve watched shows like Snowpiercer. No matter how much we gathered, it was still hard to see. It was a little fuzzy.
After this weekend, we don’t have to imagine anymore.
We know.
End of part 1
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Oct 2024 at 10:54pm
part 2,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmqyW7RdQXQ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmqyW7RdQXQ or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmqyW7RdQXQ Paul Beckwith;
Excess Mortality Continues for 15 Years After Storms like Hurricane Helene, and Dwarfs Direct Deaths
Excess Mortality Continues for 15 Years After Storms like Hurricane Helene, and Dwarfs Direct Deaths
It’s been six full days since Hurricane Helene went ashore in Florida, and the impacts are still affecting large portions of the United States.
The latest death toll is over 180 people, and still rising rapidly as entire villages were washed away and many bodies are still to be found.
The economic cost estimates are now as high as $160 billion US dollars. If it does reach this level, that would put it 5th or 6th in the costliest disasters in recent human history.
Shortly after the storm hit, power outages across multiple states reached over 4 million people, and now, 6 full days later just over 1 million people are still without power.
What is most surprising is that a new peer-reviewed paper just published shows that these tropical cyclone storms hitting the USA between 1930 and present kill an average of 24 people directly and between 7,000 and 11,000 people over the 15 year period subsequent to the actual storm. This is crazy. The authors show statistically that these “excess mortalities” in the region where the storm hit can only result from the storm, and are likely due to stress, poor health systems after the storm damaged infrastructure, and a variety of other storm caused effects.
Climate change caused extreme events are clearly wreaking enormous havoc on our societies today, causing untold misery, and huge economic losses that can only end badly.
DJ, Very likely within a few years "Helene" may be seen as "mild"....As long as ocean water keeps getting warmer-warmth going deeper-water expanding...
In the past hurricanes "consumed" a lot of energy from the water it was moving over. There now is that much energy (via the hot water) hurricanes get stronger/larger faster, with more rain...moving high speed (jet streamed) to areas that never did see hurricanes before...
"Helene" did most damage hundreds of kilometers of any coast...
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https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241009/0600 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241009/0600 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.3;-38.9;3&l=gust&t=20241009/0600 "Kirk" may reach France october 9...maybe in name no longer a hurricane...Another storm near Florida...
Lots of non-tropical storms all over the place...(I am not even beginning to also include Asia...lots of extreme weather there...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ "current storms"....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects ....
https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-lowest-sea-level-air-pressure-excluding-tornadoes - https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-lowest-sea-level-air-pressure-excluding-tornadoes or https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-lowest-sea-level-air-pressure-excluding-tornadoes ;
World: Lowest Sea Level Air Pressure (excluding tornadoes)
Record Value
870 hPa
Date of Event
12 / 10 [October] / 1979
Length of Record
1951-present
Geospatial Location
Pressure Estimated in Eye of Typhoon Tip [16°44'N, 137°46'E]
DJ, another record to be smashed....
Some "suggestions" of what is on its way-can no longer be stopped;
-Unpredictable fast developing mega storms...developing into cat 5+ in 24-48 hours...
-Storm systems that may span/cover ALL of the US/North Atlantic
-Hurricanes that last for weeks...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_%281994%29 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994) ;
Hurricane John, also known as Typhoon John, was the farthest-traveling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone - tropical cyclone ever observed worldwide. It was also the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record globally at the time, until it was surpassed by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Freddy - Cyclone Freddy in 2023.
DJ, "John" was around 4 weeks, 2 days in 1994, Freddy in 2023 lasted over 5 weeks...(5 weeks and 3 days...)
We have been knowingly destroying this planet for over 70 years...We KNEW what we were doing...Putting greed above humanity is evil !
The last step we have to take is limiting damage as best we can...Climate change/collapse will kill billions of people in the coming decade...Of course if we go for nuclear war it may be a fast way of stopping climate collapse-or speeding up climate collapse...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 03 Oct 2024 at 10:34pm
DJ, "Helene" now the worst storm after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina in 2005...
Hurricane Katrina was a devastating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone - tropical cyclone that caused 1,392 fatalities and damages estimated at $125 billion in late August 2005, particularly in the city of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans - New Orleans and its surrounding area.
DJ, What shocked me most is the total inaction by governments when the hurricane was on its way...After the storm the inaction-in many ways-simply went on...A lot of the deaths could have been avoided...
"Helene" did move high speed as a strong storm with lots of rain and a storm surge blocking rivers to the sea...So a lot of damage was in areas far from the sea...
It may have been very unpredictable..."Helene" did get cat 4 shortly before landfall, may have changed direction and moved faster over land-keeping its strength/rain longer...
Science has its limits...a lot of experts would expect "Helene" would lose most of its deathly potential after it came on land...
DJ-"Kirk" is now moving towards NW Europe...could get near France around october 10...
Again-very unusual and unpredictable...Very well monitored...but that can not provide info on what "Kirk" may do over still several days...
Other storms are forming and -again- will do damage to the US...Also in areas not recovered from "Helene"....Politics did send less money to disaster relief-(more money to endless wars/criminal corrupt regimes...)
With winter on its way lots of diseases will increase...We did see extreme weather in the past-climate collapse only making the weather more crazy...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost ;
The entire Canadian Archipelago is close to a new record. On September 30, NSIDC's extent almost reached the 2012 minimum (2012-268 with 192.41k vs 2024-274 with 193.552k). If I'm not mistaken in my calculations. Possible tomorrow the Canadian Archipelago will become the second region to have a minimum in 2024 after the Beaufort Sea.
DJ, Arctic is supposed to see ice increase by now...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 04 Oct 2024 at 2:45am
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream ;
CAHAN Disease Notification -Guidance for IV Saline Disruption
Hurricane Helene has severely damaged facilities at a Baxter International plant in North Carolina, resulting in its closure. Baxter International is a major manufacturer of intravenous and peritoneal dialysis solutions in the United States.
Baxter International has provided suggestions for management and conservation (see link below and attached). The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and The Emergency Medical Services Authority, in partnership with the Regional Disaster Medical Health System will be assessing local and regional supply. The HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) is tracking potential impacts and CDPH is in contact with ASPR.
DJ, "Helene" moved faster and stronger than expected.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#United_States_2 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#United_States_2 or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#United_States_2 -damage by state-so far;
North Carolina 108 deaths
Tennessee 11 deaths
Virginia 2 deaths
DJ-Florida (19), South Carolina (41) and Georgia (33) were expected to be hit...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm#Severe_storms_since_1950 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm#Severe_storms_since_1950 or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm#Severe_storms_since_1950
"Kirk" may bring extreme storm force wind/rain to NW Europe...How to communicate that ?
In time warnings can limit damage. However "Kirk" -very likely followed by "Leslie" paths are still uncertain...Avoiding panic also is important....
DJ-"Hopium/crowd control" should NOT be the strategy....NW Europe is very densely populated . A bit more NW movement could see most of the storm over the UK, movement NE may see France/Germany getting hit...
Low lying area's could see flooding...NL may be well prepared for a surge in sea water...however keeping the sea out may mean extreme rain can not move to the sea...
I did see a German YouTube channel openly discussing "Kirk" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXkJdr9ZCVs&t=67s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXkJdr9ZCVs&t=67s or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXkJdr9ZCVs&t=67s ..."weather watchers" will be aware... https://www.noodweer.be/atlantisch-orkaanseizoen-weer-op-dreef-wat-zal-orkaan-kirk-brengen-021024/ - https://www.noodweer.be/atlantisch-orkaanseizoen-weer-op-dreef-wat-zal-orkaan-kirk-brengen-021024/ or https://www.noodweer.be/atlantisch-orkaanseizoen-weer-op-dreef-wat-zal-orkaan-kirk-brengen-021024/
However -as far as I am aware of- only limited info to/in the "main stream media"....
https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/klimatologie/lijsten/zwarestormen - https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/klimatologie/lijsten/zwarestormen or https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/klimatologie/lijsten/zwarestormen NL weather office has a windforce 10 for a 1990 storm-other sources claim was a force 12 storm...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns_Day_Storm#Winds - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns%27_Day_Storm#Winds or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns%27_Day_Storm#Winds ;
The strongest sustained winds recorded were between 70 and 75 mph (113 and 121 km/h), comparable to a weak Category 1 hurricane or Hurricane-force 12 on the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_Scale - Beaufort Scale . Strong gusts of up to 104 mph (167 km/h) were reported, which caused the most extensive damage. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987 - Great Storm of 1987 contained considerably higher wind speeds across every parameter but affected a smaller area of the UK; both highest recorded sustained wind speeds of 86 mph and highest gust of 135 mph, for example. Sustained periods of high gust speeds were also far higher in 1987. However, during the 1987 storm, many anemometers stopped recording because of power outages, breakages by the excess wind speeds and measurement maxima being exceeded.
DJ, That 1990 storm did kill 76 people in the UK (47), France (12) and NL (17) (no deaths in Belgium, Germany ???)
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DJ-In crisis management the big question has to be what are the risks for whom and when ?
By now-october 4- it may be too early to answer those questions...DJ-I do think "a bit more alarm" in the weather forecasts would be welcome...
"Helene" could do that much damage because it moved that fast as a strong storm...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Kirk - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Kirk or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Kirk ;
After fluctuating in intensity following that rapid intensification period, Kirk reached Category 4 intensity by late on October 3
DJ, The present position and route in the coming days very likely may see "Kirk" getting less energy/less warm Atlantic water...The jet-stream could however increase the speed in wich "Kirk" could move...
-
DJ-Monday october 7 more info will be available on strength-route-risks-timing...
In a "better scenario" "Kirk" would stay over water and "collapse" as a strong storm...However there is no room for wishfull thinking ! Weather records are broken almost every day...
In a "worst case scenario" we could be facing "the worst storm ever" hitting NW Europe-even earlier (october 8 ???). Giving very limited time for evacuations/alarm...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 04 Oct 2024 at 9:58pm
DJ, NL-News; flooding in Bosnia 16+ killed, extreme drought in the Rio Negro-flowing into the Amazon-Brazil, Elephants resqued in Thailand from extreme flooding...(however lors of animals did not make it...)
-The US still dealing with the "Helena" disaster, with "Milton" very likely to form within 24-48 hours...A major risk for Florida...
One of the problems is a "depression" may become a very strong-high risk- storm in 20-30 hours...Could even change its route several times...highly unpredictable...
-Here in Europe https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/an-unsettled-period-on-the-horizon - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/an-unsettled-period-on-the-horizon or https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/an-unsettled-period-on-the-horizon "Kirk" is being watched...
Some "sensation seekers" allready claim "worst ever" storm...Denial claim there may not even be any storm...
DJ, I try to follow different UK-NL/BE-German channels...A lot of the info goes back to a GFS-US model...Other models may provide a little bit different idea ?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023657.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023657.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023657.shtml?cone#contents
"Kirk" now cat 4 major hurricane in the Central Atlantic...expected as a storm NW of Spain/SW of Ireland 8 pm tuesday-oct. 8.
At 8 pm Wednesday-oct.9 it may in between the UK/France above the channel... https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanaalrat - https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanaalrat or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanaalrat ...DJ-For the US the position may be comparable with a storm between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula...It may increase risks...
DJ, For NL "strong storms" are not new...I remember the 1990 and 1973 storms...
For "Kirk" still lots of "room"; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_geps_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_geps_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_geps_latest.png some models even see "Kirk" move west again later on...
DJ, my view;
-The earlier "Kirk" hits Europe the stronger it will likely be
-The more "west" it moves the less damage it may do-for Europe...(sorry Ireland-but the west of Ireland is not that densily populated, economic damage will be limited).
-Still a chance "Kirk" may become a "milder" storm before getting into Europe...
-Highly unpredictable-so "sensation claims" of people that are certain of disaster are not very credible...
-YES droughts, floodings, storms are NOT new...the amount of extreme events, the damage however is new-linked to climate collapse/likely to worsen...
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https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html ;
Trends could be added pointing at Arctic sea ice approaching zero volume soon; even more worrying, tipping points could be crossed and speed up the temperature rise beyond a smooth curve.
Currently, Antarctic sea ice extent is at its maximum for the year, in line with seasonal changes. Antarctic sea ice is now about 17 million square km in extent, much lower than it was a decade ago.
-
As temperatures keep rising, this could cause a second Blue Ocean Event to occur in 2025, I.e. in the Arctic. Subsequently, as the oceans keep heating up, the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns.
DJ, Polar sea ice-both on the north and southpole in bad shape...Long term trend.
It does further increase chances of major methane eruptions...It in itself means less solar heat is reflected...
There are all kinds of disaster scenarios likely...Scientists for decades tried to warn politics/humanity...just like science warned for pandemics...
"Economy first" will destroy the economy...
DJ-Even if strong storms stay over the ocean it can limit logistics/transports...
In the coming days I will try to keep an eye on the Atlantic storms...Of course lots of bad weather over the Pacific/Asia/Latin America...To a certain level I limit myself...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2024 at 8:24am
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/997394-us-hurricane-helene-updates-death-toll-200-damage-across-the-southeast-september-26-2024?view=stream
DJ-Two latest posts;
OCTOBER 02, 2024
Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas En Route Greenville, SC
HOME BRIEFING ROOM PRESS BRIEFINGS ... Q Talk to us a little about how confident you’re feeling in the amount of funding right now. The president mentioned that he needs — was thinking about bringing Congress back to pass more funding. Is that something you think might still need to happen?
SECRETARY MAYORKAS: We — we are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting. We do not have the funds. FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season and what — what is imminent.
-
Published October 5, 2024 8:45am EDT Updated October 5, 2024 9:00am EDT
Rescue and recovery from Helene’s catastrophic devastation continues as death toll rises over 230 in Southeast ... By Scott Sistek Source FOX Weather
ASHEVILLE, N.C. — It’s now the second weekend of recovery and resilience since Hurricane Helene tore through Florida and the Southeast, killing at least 232 people with hundreds more still unaccounted for from the deadliest mainland US hurricane since Katrina. ... Asheville, North Carolina Police Deputy Chief Sean Aardema said Friday his agency is still investigating 75 active missing persons cases. Their agency found and rescued three survivors who had been trapped in rubble all week and got them to medical treatment — two who were trapped in debris inside the Swannanoa River and another person who had been trapped in their home.
As of Thursday, Buncombe County in western North Carolina reported 200 still unaccounted for.
DJ....NHC;
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
So "Milton" as a hurricane expected to hit Florida october 9...and FEMA is out of funds ????
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/adding-insult-to-injury-watching-gulf.html - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/adding-insult-to-injury-watching-gulf.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/adding-insult-to-injury-watching-gulf.html ;
For the past few days forecast models (GFS, Euro, CMC, etc.) have been hinting at the formation of a ragged tropical depression/storm in the Southwestern Gulf, which would track over Florida next week. Odds of formation were 40%-50%, and it was expected to be primarily a rainmaker.
Overnight those odds have jumped to 80% (according the NHC), and some of the models are hinting at something stronger coming our way.
-
As badly as we need a respite to rebuild, regroup, and recover - hurricane season runs until the end of November. By mid-October, the Atlantic hurricane spawning grounds may have retracted significantly, but the western Gulf of Mexico remains fertile ground for development.
DJ.... https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/reports-f-e-m-a-blocking-aid-to-hurricane-victims-in-north-carolina - https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/reports-f-e-m-a-blocking-aid-to-hurricane-victims-in-north-carolina or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/reports-f-e-m-a-blocking-aid-to-hurricane-victims-in-north-carolina ...among many claims the US giving emergency funds to countries destroyed by US made wars...
It is very likely this year will produce more storms/hurricanes...also other disasters could be expected....Under biden US oil production went to record level...
US elections harris or trump -both fail to offer ANY perspective...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2024 at 9:45pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023521.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023521.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023521.shtml?cone#contents
"Milton" expected to become a major hurrica (cat 3) tuesday evening...hit Florida 24 hours later...It will bring more rain to already hard hit areas...
https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1842689634230468699 - https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1842689634230468699 or https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1842689634230468699 Trying to keep on top of it...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ -with all nuances; dry air could limit strength, direction still may change..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png most models see "Milton" moving towards the hard hit areas...
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects
Also updated daily-damages in lives/costs...
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For Europe/"Kirk" a lot of early indications it may get weaker-still a storm with lots of rain-before reaching France...(but maybe NOT a "super storm"?)
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https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost ...
Part of the discussion on Arctic sea routes being open or not...
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Again-storms are normal, even having a lot of storms is not that bizarre...The climate collapse is in the speed of storms, the amount of rain, how fast storms get "major"...Even the places where they show up...
Storms push warmth (in air & water) to also Arctic areas...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2024 at 12:16am
DJ, To even my horror https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48;-36;2&l=gust&t=20241018/0000 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48;-36;2&l=gust&t=20241018/0000 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48;-36;2&l=gust&t=20241018/0000 another major hurricane for the SE of the USA...
Starting around 15th of October near Yucatan-Mexico-via Florida following US east coast-towards Canada around 21 october ????
DJ-These are just very early models...however hurricane season is NOT over... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 besides three hurricanes a disturbance showing up in the 7 day outlook...
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/katrina-disaster-unfolds-biden-harris-new-round-tropical-trouble-aimed-florida - https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/katrina-disaster-unfolds-biden-harris-new-round-tropical-trouble-aimed-florida or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/katrina-disaster-unfolds-biden-harris-new-round-tropical-trouble-aimed-florida ;
Hurricane Helene has passed, leaving a trail of destruction across the US Southeast, and the Biden-Harris administration's relief response with FEMA has been nothing short of a massive failure. Meanwhile, another storm is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, which could potentially usher in another round of tropical trouble for the US East Coast next week.
-
Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told reporters last week that FEMA "does not have the funds" to see Americans through the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season.
DJ, I wonder what is more disgusting; The fact FEMA ran out of finance or "politicians" trying to use disasters for political/election "games"...
For the rest the "zero hedge" article is crap...as if "republicans" care about climate collapse...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-36;1&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241016/0000 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-36;1&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241016/0000 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-36;1&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241016/0000 may give indications how anomalies in temperature are influenced by storms...Greenland may give a good picture...Antarctic temperature anomaly sometimes 10C+ ( in some parts of Antarctica...would still mean below freezing...).
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2024 at 3:09am
Just Weather; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jClqnKSjjU4 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jClqnKSjjU4 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jClqnKSjjU4 ;
Milton Will Impact Florida As A MAJOR Hurricane (Record Storm Surge Possible On Gulf Coast)
DJ-With a focus on storm-surge on Florida...
-"Milton" could become a cat 5...move in from the west...Last time a storm formed this way may go back to before 1900...The corner in wich the wind will hit the shore matters...
The stronger the storm the more north it is expected...
DJ-The SE-USA seems to be getting hit by a cluster of hurricanes..."Helene" was terrible- "Milton" comes on top of that-also "bad"...indications for yet another major hurricane in the middle of october... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene ....
-"Helene" did do a lot of damage to roads, electricity, water...
-"Milton" will hinder repair works-further destroy already weakened infra structure...
- "X" goes for other layer(s) ...because after a mid october storm the area may see even more.....
For "Helene";
Initial estimates suggested that insured losses could reach US$3–6 billion, according to reinsurance broker Gallagher Re; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-136 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AM_Best - AM Best estimated losses in excess of US$5 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-137 - Later estimates by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moodys_Analytics - Moody's Analytics estimated that the damages could reach US$20–34 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-138 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AccuWeather - AccuWeather estimated that the total damage and economic loss could cost anywhere from US$225–250 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-139 - At least four million people have lost power, according to the Omaha Public Power District. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-OPPD-140 - Agricultural damages are estimated at US$7 billion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#cite_note-141 - Reimerswaal (Dutch pronunciation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/Dutch - [ˌrɛimərsˈʋaːl] - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/5/53/246_Reimerswaal.ogg/246_Reimerswaal.ogg.mp3 - - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:246_Reimerswaal.ogg - ⓘ ) is a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_city - lost city in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands - Netherlands . The present-day https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reimerswaal_%28municipality%29 - municipality of Reimerswaal is named after this city, which was granted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_rights_in_the_Netherlands - city rights in 1374. The city was destroyed by repeated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood - floods , and the last citizens left in 1632. Nothing remains. It was located north of the current municipality, on the east end of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oosterschelde - Oosterschelde , on land which is now called the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verdronken_Land_van_Reimerswaal - Verdronken Land van Reimerswaal ("Drowned Land of Reimerswaal"). The site of the city has been recognized as a national archeological monument and is buried under the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oesterdam - Oesterdam . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reimerswaal_%28city%29#cite_note-1 -
another example may be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schokland#History - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schokland#History or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schokland#History ;
Schokland was an attractive settlement area in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Ages - Middle Ages when it was much larger. By the 19th century, it was under continuous threat of flooding due to the rise in sea level. By then the Schoklanders had retreated to the three most elevated parts: Emmeloord, Molenbuurt, and Middelbuurt. A major flood in 1825 brought massive destruction, and in 1859 the government decided to end permanent settlement on Schokland.
DJ...no doubt lots of countries did see parts of land turn into sea...Climate disasters will only increase that trend...
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DJ-How can the US deal with such a cluster of major hurricanes over the South East ? Mass evacuations ? Giving up some "high risk/high cost to protect" land ?
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2024 at 10:45pm
DJ, Maybe a remark on preparations....Sandbags can be of use...however if possible create room for water (sea surge, rain) ...The Dutch word "sloot" also is in English/American...
Dig a small canal, a pond, whatever...on lower laying ground...Every inch of water that can get in there is an inch less flooding...The ground released can be used to create protection around that you want to protect...
But if there is several feet of water expected-get out !
A cubic meter of water is 1000 kilo...so when that kind of amount of water is on the move it will bulldozer away anything...
Again the main tool is information !
-Milton will do a lot of damage in the SE US...It will kill...very likely dozens of people...Try to limit that !
-Kirk is going a bit more south. May touch to NW of Spain, move into France-Germany, stay south of NL/UK...Still we may see rain/wind thursday...Via riversystems we may even end up with limited flooding...
-There will be more storms this year...Realism is giving up some high risk (low lying, or hard to reach) areas...People maybe still can work there but not live there...
-In "media" there is hardly any mention of these disasters being the outcome of climate collapse...DJ-I think it is...but this is NOT a time for discussion !
-In time of disasters people should try to help eachother the best they can...Long CoViD, etc, may bring limits one may not see from the outside...(or inside for that matter)...accept limits...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 07 Oct 2024 at 9:32pm
-Milton-
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/violent-hurricane-175-mph-sustained-winds - https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/violent-hurricane-175-mph-sustained-winds or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/violent-hurricane-175-mph-sustained-winds (HT keeps it short;)
Hurricane Milton continues its almost unparalleled increase of strength today; sustained winds are now at 175 MPH with gusts to 190 MPH.
From the National Hurricane Center:
2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W Moving: E at 9 mph Min pressure: 911 mb Max sustained: 175 mph
Pressure has dropped another 13mb and is now down to 911mb, this storm is becoming violent.
Milton is now tied second place with Maria for the fastest to C5. The first-place storm was in 2005 --"Wilma" was the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record with a central pressure of 882mb.
One of the computer models being used to forecast this hurricane just spit-out a projection that left weather experts floored. This computer model forecasts that the central pressure of Milton will drop to 884 mb of pressure, which will result in SUSTAINED winds of 197 MPH.
DJ, "non-science" still;
https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_6 - https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_6 or https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_6 ;
A Category 6 is a hypothetical rating beyond Category 5 with winds speeds of at least 181 mph to 214 mph and an average pressure of roughly 905 mbar to 880 mbar.
A Category 6 hurricane can cause up to $300 billion USD in damage, being an extremely dangerous and deadly storm, especially if near land.
https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 - https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 or https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_7 ;
A Category 7 is a hypothetical rating beyond the maximum rating of Category 5. A storm of this magnitude would most likely have winds between 215 and 245 mph, with a minimum pressure between 820-845 millibars.
The storm could likely have a large wind field and a small eye. Maximum wave heights from a Category 7 hurricane may be as high as 65 feet. These storms are extremely dangerous and deadly.
DJ, Paul Beckwith is a climate scientist; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HMlb0aNWXQ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HMlb0aNWXQ or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HMlb0aNWXQ ;
My Thoughts on Superstorm Cat. 6 Hurricane Milton, Intensification, Jet Stream Steering, Storm Surge
-So Paul Beckwith using a "cat-6"...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png
DJ-NO discussion on if "Milton" will hit Florida-
There may be discussion on exact timing, spot, strength, rain...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?ero#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?ero#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?ero#contents
DJ-If you are told you should go -GO !!!!
"Milton" will be worse than "Helene" however may hit a smaller area...(but come on top of "Helene").
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 has two other possible storms-for now staying over the Atlantic -both 20% chance of becoming "serious" within a week...
-Ventusky keeps showing a storm-risk for Florida october 15-20. So on top then of "Helene" and "Milton"...
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-"Kirk" in latest models expected to move a bit north...so may bring a slight increase of risk for the BeNeLux.. (As a reminder NW Europe has an "Urban Area" with over 30 million people spread over NL, Belgium and west part of Germany).
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https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.50.html#lastPost ;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4280.msg411990.html#msg411990 - Re: The 2024/25 Arctic freezing season
« Reply #61 on:Today at 05:14:51 AM »
It would appear the switch has been thrown to turn up the Cyclone Cannon.
Currently 5 low pressure systems on their way more or less across the North Atlantic to high latitudes. 1, possibly 2 post-tropical storms at or near hurricane strength.
And then, we’ll get Milton after he’s sawn Florida in half.
Watch where the moisture ends up from all of these storms.
DJ, freezing in the Arctic may see disruptions...From the Atlantic and Pacific side-also however unusual warmth from Siberia, Canada ?
Lots of experts do warn "pre-industrial" temperature increase may be 2,75C...Playing with "pre-industrial" to "save the economy" is (also) foolish...(Just like "living with the virus" may result in people dying from that virus...at the end it is destroying the economy...However some people get rich that way...).
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 07 Oct 2024 at 11:47pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions ;
According to Robert Simpson, co-creator of the scale, there are no reasons for a Category 6 on the Saffir–Simpson scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to human-made structures.
Simpson explained that "... when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#cite_note-Simpson_interview-6 -
Nonetheless, the counties of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broward_County,_Florida - Broward and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami-Dade_County,_Florida - Miami-Dade in Florida have building codes which require that critical infrastructure buildings be able to withstand Category 5 winds. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#cite_note-Irma_could_test_strength_of_Floridas_strict_building_codes-31 -
From damage point of view everything cat 5 (+) is "terrible" so why introduce a cat 6, 7 ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale ;
The Richter scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale#cite_note-1 - ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English - / - ˈ - ɪ - t), also called the Richter magnitude scale, Richter's magnitude scale, and the Gutenberg–Richter scale, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale#cite_note-2 - is a measure of the strength of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake - earthquakes , developed by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Richter - Charles Richter in collaboration with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beno_Gutenberg - Beno Gutenberg , and presented in Richter's landmark 1935 paper, where he called it the "magnitude scale". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale#cite_note-3 - This was later revised and renamed the local magnitude scale, denoted as ML or ML . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale#cite_note-4 - No, earthquakes of magnitude 10 or larger cannot happen. The magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault on which it occurs. That is, the longer the fault, the larger the earthquake. A fault is a break in the rocks that make up the Earth's crust, along which rocks on either side have moved past each other. No fault long enough to generate a magnitude 10 earthquake is known to exist, and if it did, it would extend around most of the planet.
DJ, however meteoor strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater#Effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater#Effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater#Effects may have seen M10+ quakes...
-
The impact generated winds in excess of 1,000 kilometers per hour (620 mph) near the blast's center,
DJ, So that would be a cat 10 ????
-
From a science point of view it would be more then welcome to see definitions for cat-5+ storms...
DJ
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 08 Oct 2024 at 6:02am
https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/08/stormy-weather-forecast-thursday-hurricane-kirk-just-misses-netherlands - https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/08/stormy-weather-forecast-thursday-hurricane-kirk-just-misses-netherlands or https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/08/stormy-weather-forecast-thursday-hurricane-kirk-just-misses-netherlands ;
Tuesday, 8 October 2024 - 08:35
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The Netherlands can expect strong winds and heavy downpours on Thursday, the KNMI https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/storm-kirk - warns . This is due to hurricane Kirk, which is currently moving across the Atlantic Ocean. Kirk won’t be a hurricane anymore by the time it hits Western Europe, and it won’t hit the Netherlands directly, but it will still bring very stormy weather.
Over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center in the United States projected that Kirk would be a tropical storm when it hits the Netherlands directly on Wednesday night. The new update is that the tropical storm will miss the Netherlands, but hit Belgium, France, and Germany. Tropical storms have a wind range of 62 to 118 kilometers per hour.
The latest calculations have Kirk making landfall above western France via the north of Spain on Wednesday evening. The tropical storm will then set course for Germany and bring stormy weather to the Netherlands on Thursday.
It is still unclear how strong the winds will be in the Netherlands on Thursday, and how much rain will fall. That depends on the exact route the storm will take and the various weather models do not yet provide a clear picture, the KNMI said. But that there will be a lot of rain and wind seems clear. Maximums will also climb no higher than 10 degrees on Thursday.
It is rare that a hurricane that originated near the Caribbean reaches Europe. According to the KNMI, climate change makes it easier for hurricanes to swerve our way instead of towards the U.S. The intensity of storms is also increasing.
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge ; Lots of factors-from Earth rotation (for Florida that rotation will increase the surge, to hPa/milibar
The pressure effects of a tropical cyclone will cause the water level in the open ocean to rise in regions of low https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure - atmospheric pressure and fall in regions of high atmospheric pressure. The rising water level will counteract the low atmospheric pressure such that the total pressure at some plane beneath the water surface remains constant. This effect is estimated at a 10 mm (0.39 in) increase in sea level for every https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millibar - millibar (hPa) drop in atmospheric pressure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge#cite_note-Har63-5 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida#Demographics - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida#Demographics or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida#Demographics Florida population 22,6 million...It is "very hard" to evacuate millions of people...(in limited time).
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 08 Oct 2024 at 11:00pm
DJ,
"Milton" will see-in some places-over 6 meter/20 feet of sea-surge/rain/waves...A 1000 kilo=1 cubic meter water (1x1x1) on the move will have "bulldozer-like" strength...
If government tells you you have to evacuate then evacuate !
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents ;
...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
DJ...Some areas in Florida will be flattened...ALL the buildings gone..the roads gone...
A combination of wind and water can do very major damage...it is NOT a joke !
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 Has "Milton", "Leslie" a 50% chance of development into a named storm system North of the Bahamas-directed east (so away from the US) and an early stage system just out of Africa-10% of a named storm within a week...
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.6;-45.2;3&l=gust - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.6;-45.2;3&l=gust or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.6;-45.2;3&l=gust may provide a perspective of where 9new) storms go/develop...
The US will see more storms...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Scientists_Warning_to_Humanity#Other_scientists_warnings - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Scientists%27_Warning_to_Humanity#Other_scientists'_warnings or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Scientists%27_Warning_to_Humanity#Other_scientists'_warnings
DJ-In a climate conference over 15,000 scientists again repeat their warning;
-We only did increase greenhouse gasses
-Oceans are warmer than ever before
-All over the planet new heat records...
DJ-In a recent press release NL Red Cross stated-more or less-climate disasters did double this year compared to 2023 (my translation...).
We are in climate collapse ! There is no "carbon-budget"! Pre-industrial temperature increase (since 1700-1750) is around 2,75C...
There is NO ROOM for putting pre-industrial tresholds to 1900 or other lies "to save the economy"....Just like "living with the CoViD-virus" to "save the economy is stupid !
One can NOT live with climate collapse...One can NOT survive all out global wars...One can NOT survive the mega-mix of diseases now coming our way !
Get prorities straight !
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 09 Oct 2024 at 6:34am
Moody's: https://x.com/hashtag/Milton?src=hashtag_click - #Milton threatens 235,338 commercial buildings with a value of $1.1 trillion.
Tampa metro also has 1.5 M homes, with a large percentage at risk of damage from wind, floods & storm surge.
This could be an incredibly costly, horrible disaster.
https://t.co/oa5gft3vrg -
Years ago one of the most famous https://x.com/hashtag/climate?src=hashtag_click - #climate scientists James Hansen wrote a book called “Storms of my Grandchildren”.
Well, with https://x.com/hashtag/Helene?src=hashtag_click - #Helene and now https://x.com/hashtag/Milton?src=hashtag_click - #Milton , they have arrived…
My new video: The Inexorable March of https://x.com/hashtag/Superstorm?src=hashtag_click - #Superstorm https://x.com/hashtag/Hurricane?src=hashtag_click - #Hurricane Milton to https://x.com/hashtag/Florida?src=hashtag_click - #Florida https://t.co/vYp3DLJSeL -
Three hurricanes simultaneously spun over the North Atlantic Ocean on Oct. 6 – the first time in the satellite record this has happened after September. https://t.co/50RTKVRWLG -
"Milton" is expected to hit Florida as a major hurricane. Flooding, wind, rain will kill...
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"Kirk" did do some damage in Spain-now bringing lots of rain in France, the south-east of the BeNeLux-parts of Germany...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods could be a possible worst case scenario...
In July 2021, several https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe - European countries were affected by severe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood - floods . Some were catastrophic, causing deaths and widespread damage. The floods started in the United Kingdom as flash floods causing some property damage and inconvenience. Later floods affected several https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_basins - river basins across Europe including Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-8 - At least 243 people died in the floods, including 196 in Germany, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-welt-deaths-23-7-9 - 43 in Belgium, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-belgium-deaths-2 - two in Romania, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-romania-death-3 - one in Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-rainews-deaths-4 - and one in Austria. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods#cite_note-br-austria-5 -
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 09 Oct 2024 at 8:53am
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/998098-us-hurricane-milton-october-5?view=stream - https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/998098-us-hurricane-milton-october-5?view=stream or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/998098-us-hurricane-milton-october-5?view=stream
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/nhc-5am-milton-update-key-messages.html - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/nhc-5am-milton-update-key-messages.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/nhc-5am-milton-update-key-messages.html ;
As for me and my cat (Jin-Jin), our bags are packed and staged near the front door. During the next break in the rain, I'll load my car, and hopefully in the next couple of hours we'll set off to my bug out location. Plans are to be there before noon.
I expect we'll lose both power and internet later tonight - possibly lasting for several days - and I doubt I'll be able to post again until after those services return.
Until then, you can get the latest infectious disease information from https://flutrackers.com/forum/ - FluTrackers, https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/ - Crof, http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/ - CIDRAP , https://virologydownunder.com/ - Dr. Ian Mackay , and our newcomer https://hogvet51.substack.com/ - Hogvet54 - all excellent sources of information and analysis.
Stay safe, everybody.
Posted by https://www.blogger.com/profile/07982161449334601397 - at https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/nhc-5am-milton-update-key-messages.html -
If "Milton" would "de-escalate" it would be very welcome...
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"Kirk" expected to bring wind/storm to France-Germany...more to the north rain...
https://www.noodweer.be/kritieke-wateroverlast-door-restanten-ex-orkaan-kirk-waar-en-hoeveel-241009/ - https://www.noodweer.be/kritieke-wateroverlast-door-restanten-ex-orkaan-kirk-waar-en-hoeveel-241009/ or https://www.noodweer.be/kritieke-wateroverlast-door-restanten-ex-orkaan-kirk-waar-en-hoeveel-241009/
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4249.100.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4249.100.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4249.100.html#lastPost...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 09 Oct 2024 at 1:13pm
https://x.com/hashtag/HurricaneHelene?src=hashtag_click - #HurricaneHelene ’s deadly rainfall & wind, which created a trail of destruction across 500 miles of the US Southeast in late September, was increased by https://x.com/hashtag/ClimateChange?src=hashtag_click - #ClimateChange
Our new study urges inland US regions to plan for ‘unimaginable’ hurricane floods https://t.co/B1KY3Zk9vB -
This storm is going to be brutal. Take time to realize what an amazing job NOAA has done to warn the people in Florida days in advance. Suspect no one is getting much sleep as they do their difficult duty.
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https://x.com/PaulHBeckwith -
https://x.com/yishan">
https://x.com/yishan -
-
https://x.com/yishan -
·
https://x.com/yishan/status/1843776780660068462 -
Conspiracy theorists who keep saying there’s “no way” the hurricane could have intensified so much without some human cause are so close to getting it.
Warm ocean waters due to human-caused climate change helped fuel Hurricane https://x.com/hashtag/Milton?src=hashtag_click - #Milton to become a powerful Category 5 storm.
Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were well above average for this time of year as Milton churned toward Florida. https://t.co/p4WvGdpcWE -
Conspiracy theories about weather manipulation are, unfortunately, the logical next step in climate denialism, and the traction they are getting shows how hard it is to get out of this absurdly terrifying loop.
DJ, Is "lab-leak-claims" in CoViD a form of denialism ? Does it matter a lot of people may not want to know reality ? Well in elections it would matter...if there were real choices...
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595?login=false - https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595?login=false or https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595?login=false ;
We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo (
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 09 Oct 2024 at 10:18pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAOsgM56Eyg - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAOsgM56Eyg or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAOsgM56Eyg Paul Beckwith;
Perilous Times on Planet Earth: New 2024 State of the Climate Report
DJ, (link in the post above) NOT linking climate collapse with pandemics-while there are very clear links !!!
Going for 1850-1900 "pre-industrial baseline"...Paul Beckwith admits then also going for a 10-year average is "non sense"....
"Milton" is just another superstorm one should expect ...and it will NOT be the last one, it will not be the worst one...
"Post tropical storm "Kirk" so far killed 1 person in France-Europe...In the most south-east part of NL 47 mm rain...
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241010-hurricane-kirk-remnants-reach-france-leaving-at-least-one-dead - https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241010-hurricane-kirk-remnants-reach-france-leaving-at-least-one-dead or https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241010-hurricane-kirk-remnants-reach-france-leaving-at-least-one-dead ;
The remnants of https://www.france24.com/en/tag/hurricanes-storms/ - Hurricane Kirk swept into western Europe Wednesday, tearing up trees in https://www.france24.com/en/tag/portugal/ - Portugal and https://www.france24.com/en/tag/spain/ - Spain before dumping heavy rains on https://www.france24.com/en/tag/france/ - France that left at least one dead.
A storm swell in the Mediterranean off the port city of Sete in southern France overturned three boats, killing one amateur sailor and putting another in the hospital in critical condition, said Herault department authorities.
Some 64,000 people in the south of France were also left without power, network supplier Enedis told AFP, while several departments reported roads cut off by https://www.france24.com/en/tag/floods/ - floodwaters .
Following a crisis response meeting in https://www.france24.com/en/tag/paris/ - Paris , Energy and Ecological Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told journalists the government was mobilising "all state services" and urged citizens to be careful.
"These episodes will have a tendency to recur. We're living at a time when climate change is making itself felt in concrete ways in our daily lives," she said.
Authorities put the Seine-et-Marne department near Paris on red alert for flooding as the rain swelled the Grand Morin river, a tributary of the Seine, which runs through the French capital.
Another 29 of the country's departments were placed on orange alert, with heavy rains and high winds expected.
DJ, More info on "Kirk" damage in Europe may come later today...
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"Milton" will kill in the US....very likely again hundreds of people...
So far politics do NOT stop climate collapse-only make matters worse...Climate is not a "left wing" or "right wing" issue...it is about human survival...
Ignoring tornadoes "because tornado's are left wing" is crazy...
We are IN climate collapse-we are IN pandemics...both are related and need to be the global top-priority !
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 11 Oct 2024 at 5:22am
DJ, Two systems to watch; https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Just west of Africa-40% chance development into a named storm is https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_gefs_latest.png "94L"...may move into the Carribbean over several days...maybe as a "low"....not even a storm...
"Leslie" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_tracks_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_tracks_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_tracks_latest.png could reach Europe in 5 days ? "Leslie" started on septmeber 29....may be another "low" by the time it reaches western Europe....
IF it is a bit more then a "low/depression" and would bring storm/rain to Europe-after "Kirk" it would be remarkable...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton# - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton# or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton# may have killed 18 people, #5 most intense Atlantic hurricane with lowest pressure 897 hPa...
In the top 10 5 are from 2000 or later;
#1 Wilma -2005 with lowest 882 hPa
#4 Rita -also 2005 lowest 895 hPa
#5 Milton -2024 lowest 897 hPa
#8 Katrina -again 2005 902 hPa
#9 dean -2007 905 hPa....
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH7aSWA4YoE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH7aSWA4YoE or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH7aSWA4YoE Climate Emergency Forum;
Hurricane Helene - Untold Death and Destruction
Peter, Paul and...Regina...
5,606 viewsOct 10, 2024
This Climate Emergency Forum video discusses the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene, focusing on the unprecedented scale of destruction and long-term consequences.
This video was recorded on October 3rd, 2024, and published on October 9th, 2024, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
The discussion highlights inadequate building regulations, lack of flood insurance awareness, and the role of warming oceans in intensifying storms. It emphasizes the long-term suffering of affected communities, including psychological trauma, PTSD, and increased rates of alcoholism, drug addiction, and suicide in areas hit by severe weather events.
The conversation then shifts to the true impact of hurricanes, citing a recent study that suggests hurricane-related deaths are hundreds of times higher than official immediate counts when considering long-term effects. The study estimates that US hurricanes may have contributed to up to 5 million deaths since 1930, surpassing other major causes of death like infectious diseases and motor vehicle accidents. Economic impacts are also discussed, with damage estimates for Hurricane Helene reaching up to $160 billion.
Throughout the discussion, there's a strong emphasis on the urgent need for climate action and better preparedness for future extreme weather events. The video explains how global warming increases water vapor in the atmosphere, leading to more intense precipitation during storms. It also addresses the changing patterns of hurricanes due to alterations in jet stream configurations. The discussion concludes by calling for more robust building practices and regulations to withstand future storms like Helene.
Links:
Helene death toll rises to at least 232 across 6 states
Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming
https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbUxYVGxQOVZRcmlMb3FDYUJ3V1dleFRqei1HZ3xBQ3Jtc0trN29wOTAwYndYRjl3TnRnczBFTmVRa3RMbWxENjNFcmhfN1ItbjMzdnFiMC1TbzFCSkpKMGlacm1aMnlkSG5CcjdKT2xUZ0pLT29NbXczdVBzNmZRSmhaZVNVN3Z6YWRpd2xncnZrVkZuWTBkcENjMA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41612-019-0095-3&v=wH7aSWA4YoE - https://www.nature.com/articles/s4161...
Regular Panelists:
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Regina Valdez - Program Director, Climate Reality Project, NYC. GreenFaith Fellow and LEED Green Associate
DJ, Milton will have resulted in another billion US$ worth of damages...unclear how much...In part the flooding (etc) still ongoing...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Oct 2024 at 12:21am
DJ, On the interaction between weather/climate and landscape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X6pdmqrAu0 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X6pdmqrAu0 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X6pdmqrAu0 ;
What happened to mountainsides during Helene's extreme rains (30 inches or more)?
Helene has impacted Appalachian life in extreme ways for the foreseeable future. In addition to catastrophic flooding, deadly landsliding occurred in numerous areas. The Garren Creek community of Buncombe County, North Carolina, may have been the area most severely affected by landslides. Huge debris flows claimed many lives in this area, and while the story has appeared on national news outlets, it has not received the attention that more populated areas have. This video talks about the disastrous debris flows in this area and how debris flows work in general. The video contains information for first responders about the risks of working in a debris flow area following the first pulse, as well as for mountain residents who may live in areas that could be hit by debris flows.
DJ, It should not be a surprise extreme rain can/will bring mud/land/debris slides/flows...Some of the debris blocking rivers-so the "flow" has to find other ways downward....
It does explain why the trend is that storms/rain kill more people far away from a coastline...
https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-maximum-surface-wind-gust-TC - https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-maximum-surface-wind-gust-TC or https://wmo.asu.edu/content/world-maximum-surface-wind-gust-TC ;
113.2 m/s (253 mph; 220 kt)
https://wmo.asu.edu/content/tornado-highest-recorded-wind-speed-tornado-doppler-radar - https://wmo.asu.edu/content/tornado-highest-recorded-wind-speed-tornado-doppler-radar or https://wmo.asu.edu/content/tornado-highest-recorded-wind-speed-tornado-doppler-radar
135 m/s (302 mph)
DJ, Around 500 kilometer per hour wind....
This is a phantasy-link (for now) https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_25 - https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_25 or https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Category_25
A Category 25 is a ultra tropical cyclone that has max. sustained winds between 500 and 855 mph. Gusts in these storms can reach up to 1,000 mph in some cases. These storms have storm surge up to 700-2000 meters up into the atmosphere and have potential to wipe out entire countries. There has been only 2 Category 25 tropical cyclones in recorded human history. A Category 25 can form in waters that are hotter then 101-345 degrees Fahrenheit. These biblical cyclones only occur once every 150 to 200 years which means they are once-in-a lifetime for those who are lucky to see one. (From a distance, that is.)
DJ, however the discussion has to be on how extreme extreme can get...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Oct 2024 at 1:53am
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/extreme-weather-records - https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/extreme-weather-records or https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/extreme-weather-records ;
Greatest rainfall in 24 hours
The biggest rainfall in a day occurred with the passage of Cyclone Denise in Foc-Foc, La Réunion, an island in the southern Indian Ocean. Some 1.825 meters (71.8 inches) of rain fell over 24 hours, from January 7 to 8, 1966.
DJ, A lot of "record numbers" on extreme weather look a bit "old" in my view...However 500 km/h wind -almost 2,000 mm/rain in 24 hours may indicate how extreme weather-disaster can get...
The interaction with the landscape also has to include extreme drought...even sand may "block" rain if it did not rain in an area for months...
"Flat land" may have an underground-mix of clay and sand...Extreme rain may result in sand flowing away...Extreme rain can cause dust/sand storms...
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions ;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration - NOAA research scientist Jim Kossin said that the potential for more intense hurricanes was increasing as the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change - climate warmed , and suggested that Category 6 would begin at 195 mph (85 m/s; 170 kn; 315 km/h), with a further hypothetical Category 7 beginning at 230 mph (105 m/s; 200 kn; 370 km/h). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#cite_note-29 - In 2024 another proposal to add "Category 6" was made, with a minimum wind speed of 192 mph (309 km/h), with risk factors such as the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change - effects of climate change and warming ocean temperatures part of that research. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#cite_note-30 - In the NHC area of responsibility, only Patricia had winds greater than 190 mph (85 m/s; 165 kn; 305 km/h).
DJ, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujita_scale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujita_scale or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujita_scale ...hurricanes mix with tornadoes...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records#Highest_winds_observed_in_a_tornado - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records#Highest_winds_observed_in_a_tornado or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records#Highest_winds_observed_in_a_tornado
Max wind already in the 500-550 km/h range. Some tornadoes may last hours...
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/hurricanes/how-strong-can-hurricanes-get - https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/hurricanes/how-strong-can-hurricanes-get or https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/hurricanes/how-strong-can-hurricanes-get ;
There is a "speed limit," on sustained wind speed, called maximum potential intensity, but it is not absolute: It is dictated by several factors, including the heat present in the ocean. Current calculations of the maximum potential intensity for storms typically peaks around 200 mph (322 km/hour).
But that may change in the coming decades as oceans warm and the climate changes. Already, the potential for strong storms has been rising over the past 30 years, said https://emanuel.mit.edu/ - "I think by the end of the century, if we don't do a lot of curbing, it's going to be closer to 220 [mph]," Emanuel told Live Science.
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New hurricane categories?
Hurricanes are graded on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranges from Category 1 (starting at sustained winds of 74 mph, or 119 km/hour winds) to a Category 5 (starting at sustained winds of 157 mph, or 252 km/hour winds). This scale is incomplete, as it is based on wind speed and doesn't include damage from storm surge or flooding, which are deadlier than wind, Emanuel said.
The increasing probability of strong storms spurred Kossin and his colleague https://crd.lbl.gov/divisions/amcr/computational-science-dept/acsd/staff/staff-members/michael-wehner/ - - suggest in February that the Saffir-Simpson scale may need a "Category 6," which would include storms with winds of more than 192 mph (308 km/h).
The researchers identified five storms that would already qualify for that category: Typhoon Haiyan (2013), Hurricane Patricia (2015), Typhoon Meranti (2016), Typhoon Goni (2020) and Typhoon Surigae (2021). Patricia was the most intense on record and the only one with winds over 200 mph. (The hurricane's winds reached 215 mph (345 km/h) but weakened to 150 mph (241 km/h) by the time the storm made landfall.)
Wehner and Kossin considered looking at hurricanes in a theoretical "Category 7" with winds over 229 mph (368 km/h). But their calculations showed there is currently a negligible risk of a storm that strong, Wehner told Live Science, so they left the possibility out of their paper.
DJ, the seize of a storm is yet another discussion...(cyclones may be bigger than hurricanes ?)
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Oct 2024 at 10:47pm
"System 94L" is on its way to the Caribbean https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 -still 40% chance of it becoming a named system within 7 days...
"Milton" damage may be 85 billion US$...
"Leslie" may have stopped being a risk...could reach Spain/Morocco-see some reactivation over the Mediterranean Sea end of this week...
It is unclear if 94L stays over the Atlantic-moving north, or could reach Florida...
Models going further then a few days at best may give indications.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost (latest-Arctic);
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost (Antarctica)
Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.58 million km2, 0.37 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained to 75% of the 2023 record low
DJ, We are in climate collapse.
"Superstorms" with extreme amount of rain/flooding-also in places that hardly get any rain (Sahara in Africa...) are a "new normal" with high speed worsening of the crisis...
Hurricanes/Cyclones are releated to "SST" Sea Surface Temperature...and in many places that is record high...(Florida keys had 100F+/40C+)
"We" did only increase climate collapse..."politicians for sale" still go for "saving the economy" NOT for public interests...
Pandemics are climate collapse related-and only are getting worse..."Living with pandemics" may result in general life expectency dropping back to 30-40 years, the pre 1900/pre 1000 (AD) number...With global population also going high speed in that direction...
Humans can NOT survive +3C...and we may be at 2,76C based on a 1700-1750 "pre-industrial baseline"... https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2024 at 11:21pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Ex-Hurricane_Leslie - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Ex-Hurricane_Leslie or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Ex-Hurricane_Leslie ;
A tropical wave first noted on 29 September off the coast of West Africa developed into Tropical Storm Leslie by the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hurricane_Centre - National Hurricane Centre . Leslie strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane but later weakened back to a tropical storm. It then re-strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane before weakening again to a tropical storm due to wind shear. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#cite_note-64 - This prompted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPMA - IPMA , the Portuguese weather service to issue multiple rain and wind warnings for parts of the Azores, and mainland Portugal. Orange rain warnings were in force for many southern regions of Portugal, including the capital, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisbon - Lisbon . Yellow rain warnings were in force for regions further north, including places like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porto - Porto . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain - Spain also put up yellow rain warnings for many south-western, central and north-eastern regions as 15–20 millimetres (0.59–0.79 in) possible in 1 hour. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#cite_note-auto8-65 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#cite_note-auto8-65 - Level 2 areas were issued over NE Italy, W-CNTRL Italy, parts of S-Italy, parts of Sicily and the E-Black Sea for excessive rain.
Level 1 areas surround all the level 2 areas for a similar hazard with lower probabilities. In addition a few tornadoes are possible allong the coasts. An isolated large hail risk exists over and E of Tunisia next to a few strong/severe gusts over NW Italy (cold front passage).
A level 1 was issued over NE France into far W Germany mainly for heavy rain.
and https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/france-places-six-departments-on-red-alert-for-flooding-due-to-heavy-rains/87749180 - https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/france-places-six-departments-on-red-alert-for-flooding-due-to-heavy-rains/87749180 or https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/france-places-six-departments-on-red-alert-for-flooding-due-to-heavy-rains/87749180 or
PARIS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Six French departments were placed on red alert for flooding amid "exceptional rain" that the French weather agency said was as much as 630 mm (24.8 inches) in 48 hours in one area.
Departments in France are administrative regions similar to British or American counties.
The areas covered by the red alert include Lyon, the third-largest city in the country, as well as Cannes, famed for its film festival.
DJ, What I make of it; "ex-Leslie" regained strength-still had a lot of rain...now resulting in flooding in France, Italy...Very unusual to see "Kirk" "Leslie" bringing this kind of weather to Europe...
Also why it is not mentioned ? "Hurricane related weather" had to show up in Europe...is part of climate collapse...however EU "leaders" "stick to 1,5C temperature rise" ...by switching the baseline...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 -still bad weather-for Caribbean/Central America but limited chances-for now-of a named storm...
However https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L will 95L "jump over" from the Atlantic side to the Pacific side of Central America ?
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2024 at 5:51am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ;
..TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEARING LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
DJ-a bit unexpected....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene over 250 deaths, damage-in this "story" 45 billion+
Another claim https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/flash-10-000-body-bags-not-enough-for-north-carolina-hurricane-victims - https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/flash-10-000-body-bags-not-enough-for-north-carolina-hurricane-victims or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/flash-10-000-body-bags-not-enough-for-north-carolina-hurricane-victims ;Shocking news is coming out of western North Carolina. Relief workers helping hurricane victims now report they supplied authorities with ten thousand (10,000) Body Bags, and now those authorities are asking for more!
In video below, a Relief Worker reports they are hearing stories from people who say they "rode their house a mile down river" after the house was knocked off its foundation by forty foot walls of water!
DJ, My impression is that remote areas may still be unclear on damage...Rain and landslides may have killed many.
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/back-online-again-brief-post-milton.html - https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/back-online-again-brief-post-milton.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/back-online-again-brief-post-milton.html ;
Flooded streets/neighborhoods in Zephyrhills (Monday Oct 14th)
#18,348
No sooner than https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/10/signs-of-life.html - I had posted that my internet was back after 7 days, it was gone again Thursday morning. Twenty-four hours later (noon today) it sputtered back to life. At least I have power and water, which is more than I can say for some of my neighbors.
Grocery stores had to throw all refrigerated or frozen items after 4 days without power, and are only now starting to restock. Limited supplies, but I was able to score a dozen eggs, a package of sliced ham, and some frozen chicken this morning.
Cash remains king. Many stores still can't process credit/debit cards or other forms of electronic payment.
Although the water has receded in many areas, there are still neighborhoods underwater. Some roads are still flooded, and in some places, that hides large pot holes and other dangers. There are definite signs of recovery, but many places are still uninhabitable.
As bad as it is here, I'm sure it is much worse where Milton came ashore. A reminder that you don't have to be in the eye of the storm to sustain serious damage.
If my internet remains on, I'll try to resume blogging tomorrow (Saturday), but I have 8 days of news to catch up on and a fair amount of stuff to do on the ground.
DJ, A lot of models now indicate NO named storms moving to the US coming week(s)...A 15th named storm would be named "Oscar".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofr111FHweo - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofr111FHweo or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofr111FHweo Weather Watcher;
Europe Weather: More Flooding Expected While Storm Ashley Arrives • An Active October Continues
DJ, Ireland/western UK getting storm-NL getting spring-like weather...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2024 at 12:50pm
Well that was unexpected https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Oscar - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Oscar or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Oscar ;
The disturbance remained disorganized as it passed to the north of Puerto Rico on October 18, though strong convection persisted around an emerging mid-level center of circulation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-YCC_Nadine-63 - The disturbance developed a closed circulation the next morning, and was designated Tropical Storm Oscar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-osc-64 - A Hurricane Hunters flight found that Oscar was stronger than estimated, and at 18:00 UTC, Oscar was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-251 -
Hurricane Oscar https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_at1.xml">
Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.
...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
DJ... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_gefs_latest.png and https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_intensity_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_intensity_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/16L_intensity_latest.png
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tracking-nadine-and-newly-formed-hurricane-oscar/1705071 - https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tracking-nadine-and-newly-formed-hurricane-oscar/1705071 or https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tracking-nadine-and-newly-formed-hurricane-oscar/1705071 ;
Damage and fatalities from late-September Category 4 Hurricane Helene (140-mph maximum sustained winds) continue to be assessed. Still, the Gulf of Mexico hurricane is already one of the deadliest and most destructive in U.S. history.
At one point on Oct. 6, there were three simultaneous hurricanes: Kirk, Leslie and Milton.
Milton, in the Gulf of Mexico, was not only the strongest hurricane of the 2024 season so far but one of the strongest ever in the Atlantic basin, with maximum sustained winds reaching 180 mph on Oct 7.
."Oscar"..it was supposed to have a 10% chance of becoming a named system coming 7 days this morning...."Patty" next name...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8puTnAwsIw - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8puTnAwsIw or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8puTnAwsIw ;
This Hurricane Just Took A SHOCKING Turn...
A mini-hurricane...small chance of cat 3/Major Hurricane...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 20 Oct 2024 at 2:02am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Ashley_%28Josefine%29 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Ashley_(Josefine) or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season#Storm_Ashley_(Josefine)
DJ-Since Europe-on weather-is very divided a storm may end up with more than one name..."Ashley/Josefine" will move north towards Norway/Arctic....
More interesting may be "Oscar" wich could move north-touching Canada/Greenland and could result in a very warm Arctic by the end of the month... https://www.ventusky.com/?p=73;28;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241103/0000 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=73;28;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241103/0000 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=73;28;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20241103/0000
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.850.html#lastPost ;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.58 million km2, 0.30 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
DJ, More storms may reach/start in the West Atlantic/Caribbean end of this month...
The major damage may be done on the poles...Antarctica; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4750.html#lastPost ;Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.57 million km2, 0.38 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
DJ, Less Ice in (Ant)Arctic regions=more global warming...Increased methane escape, increase glacier collapse...with water expanding also because it is getting warmer.
So sea-level rise further will increase-during storms more flooding should be expected. But heat waves may do most of the killing. In California the heat is an extra factor in killing H5N1 infected cattle...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 27 Oct 2024 at 11:36pm
DJ, My goal on this-once-a forum is trying to understand (more) complex matters...I only have a limited history background, an interest in "popular science" for decades...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gst8TSVnV-s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gst8TSVnV-s or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gst8TSVnV-s ;Just have a think;
Has the Atlantic AMOC system ALREADY sarted to collapse??
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Oct 27, 2024
AMOC, or The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, has collapsed many times in Earth's geological history. But it's never happened while modern civilisations have existed - at least not until now anyway. We're already struggling to cope with 0.2 degrees Celsius of warming each decade, but an AMOC collapse could bring such catastrophic seasonal disruption that it would make recent extreme weather events look like a walk in the park! So, what's the plan??
DJ, The "AMOC" is part of a global system of gulfstreams in the world oceans. And a major "driver" behind those currents is Earth rotation...If I got that correct...
So-YES -no doubt salinity levels will be also a factor. Greenland/Arctic ice melt changing the level of salinity.
Warm ocean currents result in "relative" warmer Western Europe compared to the same "heights" in North America...NL is above New Foundland on a globe...but we have much warmer weather...
And-YES-a temperature drop of over 10 degrees because of less/no "warm AMOC" for Western Europe would matter...(the above link has much warmer summers, much colder winters...more a "land-climate" like then the present "sea-climate"...).
The other side of this-complex-matter is sea surface temperatures are already going up fast...The AMOC story comes ON TOP of other very complex climate matters already happening...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/models-downplay-wrath-of-what-they-sow.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/models-downplay-wrath-of-what-they-sow.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/models-downplay-wrath-of-what-they-sow.html ;
Models that analyze what is driving up the temperature all too often omit specific sources, or when included, models all too often downplay their contribution. Accordingly, policies that are promoted based on such models are all too often ineffective or even counter-productive.
Methane is all too often referred to as 'natural gas' originating from wetlands, swamps, cows and pigs, as if calling methane 'natural' implied that human activities were not responsible for such emissions. Moreover, people with vested interests all too often suggest that such 'natural emissions' should be captured and used for heating, cooking or industrial purposes, to offset 'human emissions'. Similarly, forest fires are all too often referred to as 'wildfires', as if human activities were not responsible for them.
The compilation of images below shows forest fires as the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions on October 26, 2024. An image of carbon monoxide is also added (bottom right), as carbon monoxide is an indicator of forest fires. Carbon monoxide is also important since it is a precursor of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide depletes tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, thus extending methane's lifetime.
DJ, So "less AMOC" may mean colder winters-very likely-if one only includes AMOC-in decades...Other climate experts warn for global temperature rise -possibly many degrees-within years/decades...
DJ-In history there have been "major weather changes" the last several thousends of years. Some of those weather/climate (mini cold age) events did see famines/bad harvests...The French revolution of 1789 in part was climate linked...Extreme drought was part of protests in Syria...misused by some to start a regime change war...
So...how important is AMOC in that complex puzzle ? My (best I can think of) view; It is part of that puzzle...maybe however NOT the main part...
We should have decreased greenhouse gases decades ago...but we did not. We are already in an "extreme weather" scenario...(climate collapse...).
For me the "AMOC-discussion" goes with "sea level/temperature-rise by 2100 discussion"...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 40% chance for a named system in the Caribbean coming week..Vietnam being hit by a cyclone that did bring lots of death and destruction to the Philippines last week, flooding in France-extreme rain...
My focus is on "here and now" worsening trends...With more people around more people will get killed by storms/tornadoes...even with the best warning systems...
We need GLOBAL cooperation to deal with "climate disasters" we should expect...And if some (good) experts are correct...global temperature rise within a decade of 10C+ "most of us" can not survive such a scenario...but we should try to avoid such a scenario becoming a global nuclear/chemical disaster...
If-indeed- Earth is already on its way towards a Venus-like climate then avoiding nuclear/chemical global waste has no point...But if Earth climate could stabalize again after decades, there may be a point for next generations in limiting our mess...
DJ-Again...me trying to "have a think"....not any kind of "expert"claim...(Where did those @#$ numbers come from !)
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 29 Oct 2024 at 11:25pm
DJ, Climate "change/collapse" is a complex process. Pandemics are complex...Both indicate we need to change the way we live...and "changing the way we live" is very unwelcome if some companies no longer can make profits...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TL0dxTFIyk - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TL0dxTFIyk or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TL0dxTFIyk Jason Box;
short and long term variations in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
presentation practice run for delivery at Danish National Center for Climate Research annual symposium. Review article https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbUYyQS1tQ1hwbUZqU1lEdXNMQ2lwMU1UQ3Zrd3xBQ3Jtc0tsZHB0LVdsRDhFRHJnanpJX0ctc1MyUnpZQm9pZjd3RGZZeWI3cDBvaGFpSWtMTlVjTm5waVVkQ2dNc2FUSnRPOHNqYlZXNDFnYUFHWjF0ay1GaGxFajRLbzN3dTY2TS1waW1JTmF5SEVXQVl0eFJKOA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1038%2Fs43017-023-00509-7&v=0TL0dxTFIyk - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00...
DJ, Good to realize the complexity of Greenland/Antarctic melt...Even with a smaller area Greenland is contributing -now- more on sealevelrise then (West)Antartica...
Gravity-loss due to less (land)ice means sealevelrise on the other side...Antarctic sealevelrise is caused by less ice in/on Greenland...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.900.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.900.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.900.html#lastPost Arctic #1
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.71 million km2, 0.17 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.
and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4800.html#lastPost - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4800.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4800.html#lastPost Antarctic #1;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2025 of 1.59 million km2, 0.36 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
DJ, Every 1C= =7% more rain, snow...So "extreme weather" in central US, Spain is related to decrease of ice in the polar regions...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects
DJ-"Patty" may be forming-but very unclear...Damage of "Helene" 88 billion US$...over 228 people killed..."Milton" damage over 85 billion, 35 deaths...
The "political picture" is denial of problems is very popular...while both in pandemics and climate collapse (very much related) time is running out...
------
"Slow processes" are polar melt, sealevel/temperature rise..."methane mega burbs" may be "explosive"....Not all climate "change" processes are "slow"....A "methane mega burb" will be a seismic event...could also push up global temperatures (and with that sealevel) high speed...
"Rivers in the sky" can coexist with extreme drought...making food and even drinkable water a fast growing problem...
"Humans are a selflimiting planetary disease"
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 30 Oct 2024 at 2:54am
https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-10-30/at-least-51-killed-in-flooding-in-spain.html - https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-10-30/at-least-51-killed-in-flooding-in-spain.html or https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-10-30/at-least-51-killed-in-flooding-in-spain.html ;
At least 51 people have died as a result of the floods in the https://english.elpais.com/news/valencia/ - Spanish province of Valencia , according to the Integrated Operational Coordination Center of the Ministry of Interior, which compiles information from various security and emergency agencies.
Early in the day, Valenciana authorities discussed “multiple victims” but could not confirm an exact number.
Dozens of individuals spent Tuesday night in Valencia in trucks or cars, climbing onto the roofs of stores or gas stations, seeking refuge on bridges, or trapped in their vehicles on impassable roads until they were rescued.
Many are still awaiting assistance from emergency services.
DJ, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%9325_European_windstorm_season and https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 29 Oct 2024 06:00 to Wed 30 Oct 2024 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 28 Oct 2024 22:35 Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across E Spain mainly for heavy rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued across S - Central Spain mainly for heavy rainfall, large hail and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
... Spain ...
A deep low at mid to upper troposphere is forecast to move from N Africa to SE Spain. This will result in a passage of a pronounced exit region of a cyclonically curved jet in the afternoon to early night hours across E Spain. Models show continuous warm air advection regime across the area from the Balearic Sea almost during the whole forecast period. Combined with an onshore/upslope easterly flow towards the higher terrain, many hours of storm activity are likely, starting in the night from Monday to Tuesday and persisting till Wednesday. Storms will be fed by a pool of high CAPE over the Balearic Sea, where an elevated mixed layer has been advected from Sahara. CAPE will be the highest at the E coastline of Spain, decreasing inland.
Widespread storms are forecast to initiate in the highlighted area. Storm coverage may vary a bit during the day.
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The scale of the flooding currently unfolding in Valencia, Spain is unfathomable. This is footage from Chiva, where a jaw-dropping 343 mm of rain was recorded in just 4 hours earlier today, between 4:30 PM and 8:30 PM.
DJ, in combination with mountains/hills extreme flooding/landslides could be expected...However the amount of rain was "of any scale"...Ever 1 foot of rain in less than 4 hours....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 30 Oct 2024 at 11:38pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods Floods in the east of Spain-deaths by now 100+....
Weather Watcher https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM751TSgWNU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM751TSgWNU or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM751TSgWNU ;
Extraordinary Floods Strike Spain • A Brief Discussion
DJ, However part of the problem was warnings came too late...Another problem may have been -since the 1957 flooding-a new riverbed was created south of Valencia...but the city also expanded that way...
The amount of rain also was-in some areas-more then what they get in one year...So metereologists could not believe their forecasts...-too extreme to be real...
-
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5962307 - https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5962307 or https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5962307 The Chinese island of Taiwan ;
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Transportation services including Taiwan Railways Corporation (TRC) and Taiwan High-Speed Rail (THSR) trains, and Metro systems have reduced or suspended their services on Thursday (Oct. 31) due to Typhoon Kong-rey.
and https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5961520 - https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5961520 or https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5961520 ;
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Typhoon Kong-rey's radius has surpassed 300 km and forecasts suggest it could be the largest to impact Taiwan in nearly 30 years.
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) on Wednesday (Oct. 30) upgraded Kong-rey to a strong typhoon and said its radius has reached 320 km, per https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ahel/202410300139.aspx - meteorologist Chang Chun-yao (張£堯).
--
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 DJ, 50% chance of a new named storm within a week in the Caribbean...models remain very unclear...also on possible trajectories...It may "stay nothing" or turn into a cat.5...in a few days...highly unpredictable...
DJ, In "the news" relating extreme weather with climate collapse is "not very popular"; denial is NOT solving anything...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Nov 2024 at 12:23am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods now over 215 deaths....Part of the problem also was timing...in the night lots of people could not be warned...
The rain fall was "beyond the scale of thinkable"....Over 1 year of rain in some plces in 4 hours....See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe In 2021 in NW Europe 243 people died in extreme rain floods-in several countries...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 has two systems likely to become named storms in the Atlantic... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names "Patty" and "Rafael" may show up soon..
Remnants of it may be part of "bad weather" in Europe...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 02 Nov 2024 at 2:57am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090812.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090812.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090812.shtml?cone#contents
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone ; A subtropical cyclone is a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather - weather system that has some characteristics of both https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone - tropical and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone - extratropical cyclones . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone#cite_note-NAtlSTClimo-1 - As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were uncertain whether they should be characterized as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone - tropical or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone - extratropical cyclones . They were officially recognized and titled by the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hurricane_Center - National Hurricane Center in 1972. Beginning in 2002, subtropical cyclones began receiving names from the official tropical cyclone lists in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_hurricane - north Atlantic basin. Subtropical cyclones are also recognized in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South-West_Indian_Ocean_tropical_cyclone - south-west Indian Ocean and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone - south Atlantic basins.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects ;
On October 30, a storm-force non-tropical low located about 550 mi (890 km) west of the western Azores began producing showers and thunderstorms near its center. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-290 - Two days later, it began producing convection near the center. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#cite_note-291 - Early on the next day on 9:00 UTC the system developed into a Subtropical Storm and was named Patty.
-
"Patty" or the remnants of it moving towards Spain/France...however-for now- both rain and wind seem to decrease before reaching NW Spain...
DJ-Unpredictable/surprising extreme weather events will result in more deaths...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 03 Nov 2024 at 2:26am
DJ, my latest post was deleted as "spam"....
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 03 Nov 2024 at 2:30am
In the hope this "forum" does not delete it...
-"Rafael" is expected to form within 48 hours (80%)-may reach the US gulf coast between Texas and Florida...Could in one model still get to cat 3...however will be weaker before reaching the US coast...
-Still four names left; Sara, Tony, Valerie and William remain for this year/Atlantic
-Countries translating Valencia extreme rain to their areas...How to get extreme rain/flooding in areas where they do less damage...In NL (rail)roads may be in the way-so "pipes"/tunnels may be of use to get water to low lying land where it does less damage...
-Climate collapse disasters interact with the land...Mountains can create flashflooding/landslides...a river may transport flooding to areas that did not see any rain...
-"Patty" now above the Azores-may bring rain/wind to NW Spain later on...
-We did see storms/extreme weather in the past-climate collapse however is worsening them...
-Resque has to set priorities...This may mean aid first going to places where they can save many lives-even if people are dying in other areas...harder to reach...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 03 Nov 2024 at 9:07pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025953.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025953.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025953.shtml?cone#contents has formed. Will be named "Rafael" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png has now two models for a cat 3/3+... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png indicating "in between Texas and Florida" next weekend-and by then a storm...
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.PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...
DJ, may reach-now-Portugal on tuesday in most models-then a "depression" still able to bring rain also to Spain...
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods ;
On 25 October 2024, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Meteorological_Agency - meteorologist Juan Jesús González Alemán warned that the upcoming cold drop could become a high impact storm. This was initially ridiculed and the report accused of " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change#Alarmism - " on the social media platform https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter - by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial - .
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Valencia lies flat around a riverbed on an https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alluvial_plain - - alluvial plain
, which places it at high risk of flooding. When heavy rains coincide with a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_storm - - convective storm during which the sea level tends to rise, the flow is especially disturbed and flood risk is doubled. The areas where it rained the most have not been flooded, but those whose geography is more predisposed to accumulate water, like the peripheral municipalities, but not the city center, where the old riverbed was made into a park, the Turia Garden in 1986. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-9 - - - - The second morphological feature are the mountains of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tertiary_period - - Tertiary period . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 2 Blocked from the continent by the cliffs, the clouds rapidly precipitate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 4–5 The town https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliva - - Oliva south of Valencia for example has experienced 20 intense floods after 1972. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 3
The third factor is the intense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanisation - - urbanization
of the coastal area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impervious_surface - - Impervious surfaces (such as roads and buildings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 5 ) prevent water from penetrating the ground. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 12 Water pools on level land, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 17 and is further retained by the metre-high https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beach_ridge - - beach ridge . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 11 When runoff is prevented and water gathers, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_flood - - flash flooding results. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - : 15 Rising sea levels will further increase the drainage time to days or even weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-angel-10 - - - - :21
From 1997-2007 there was intense construction activity, which proved non-sustainable. [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed - - ] The unusually high temperature of the seawater after the 2024 summer facilitated the generation of clouds of great vertical travel.
DJ, So the interaction with land made it into this major disaster...maybe up to 1,000+ deaths ?
Starting on 29 October 2024, a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_drop - brought drastic flash flooding to southern and south-eastern Spain, primarily in the Valencia region. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-Art14-11 - - - - At 06:42, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Meteorological_Agency - (AEMET) issued an orange weather warning for the south of Valencia. Less than 20 minutes later, the port of Valencia announced it would be shutting down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-Chronology-12 - - - - At 07:36, the AEMET issued a red weather warning for the Valencian interior and upgraded its previous warning to the highest level. By this time, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Requena-Utiel - was already receiving heavy rain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Spain_floods#cite_note-Chronology-12 - - - - By 10:30, emergency services were rescuing people from their vehicles in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribera_Alta_%28comarca%29 - .
DJ, October 29 was a tuesday/workingday...in some news the earliest reports of flooding showed up at 5 A.M. So early morning...but NOT in the middle of the night...
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Meteorological_Agency - chief climatologist José Ángel Núñez, most deaths occurred in localities with no rain.
Another factor may be living in basements-because it can be cooler in summer. But the worst place to be in flooding...Early morning rush hour did catch cars on the road and in tunnels...
DJ-my view; climate change deniers do not want to hear warnings for extreme weather...May have been a factor in making communication/warnings harder.
Earlier warnings/better communication may have saved some lives-but the extreme amount of rain simply does not fit in "the models" lots of (very good) metereologists use...
https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/2431626/het-was-echt-42-9-graden-in-deelen-maar-het-is-te-bizar-voor-woorden - https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/2431626/het-was-echt-42-9-graden-in-deelen-maar-het-is-te-bizar-voor-woorden or https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/2431626/het-was-echt-42-9-graden-in-deelen-maar-het-is-te-bizar-voor-woorden ; July 25-2019 had 42,9C record high temperatures in NL...too extreme to be real...so NOT accepted...The same sensors had record minimum temperatures/same spot of 26+ that was accepted...
"Thinking the unthinkable may save lives"....IF calculations give extreme results for weather...it may be real and urgent ! Even if it turns out not to be that bad later on...
We need better communications on WHY there may be weather warnings...
DJ
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 04 Nov 2024 at 11:57pm
https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-11-04/severe-weather-wreaks-havoc-in-barcelona-flights-canceled-and-trains-suspended.html - https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-11-04/severe-weather-wreaks-havoc-in-barcelona-flights-canceled-and-trains-suspended.html or https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-11-04/severe-weather-wreaks-havoc-in-barcelona-flights-canceled-and-trains-suspended.html ;
The same storm system that caused deadly flash flooding in Spain’s Valencia region has now gripped parts of Catalonia
The same storm system that caused https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-11-04/spanish-royals-visit-to-flood-hit-town-was-the-kings-idea-despite-warnings-about-angry-crowds.html - deadly flash flooding in Spain’s Valencia region hit the province of Barcelona on Monday. Heavy rain and strong winds affected the province of Tarragona overnight, and by Monday morning, the storm had moved northward, bringing severe conditions to the coastal areas of the city of Barcelona. The Catalan regional government issued alerts to residents in Barcelonès, Garraf, Maresme, and the two Vallès regions, advising them to limit movement to https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-11-04/garages-and-tunnels-the-unknown-factor-in-the-search-for-more-victims-of-spanish-floods.html - essential travel only.
Spain’s Civil Protection unit released a statement urging parents not to pick up their children from school, stressing that “schools are a safe place.” The statement underscores the importance of minimizing mobility. The AP-7 freeway is currently closed near Tarragona, highways leading into southern Barcelona are flooded, and the national rail operator Renfe has suspended train services across Catalonia.
DJ, My view/understanding; There were in-time warnings for extreme weather in/near Valencia. Somehow that communication failed to reach the public or was ignored.
There are also stories of dry riverbeds used to park cars...A concrete "thing" in a riverbed blocking water...So-YES-several (local) governments may not have done such a good job...Driving a car in flooded areas is high risk...
More bad weather may be on its way to Spain. Both from another low in the Mediterranean and former "Patty" moving in via Portugal from the Atlantic...
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"Rafael" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_gefs_latest.png again more narrow-still in between Texas and Florida-this weekend...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_intensity_latest.png Cat.1...maybe Cat-2 but will be a storm by landfall...
Like with "Helena" it may be the speed of the storm moving inland that could do a lot of damage...The faster it goes the higher the risks...but still days away...and also some uncertainty...So maybe "Rafael" may NOT become a problem...
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https://www.fastcompany.com/91219487/the-disturbing-link-between-climate-change-and-authoritarianism - https://www.fastcompany.com/91219487/the-disturbing-link-between-climate-change-and-authoritarianism or https://www.fastcompany.com/91219487/the-disturbing-link-between-climate-change-and-authoritarianism ;
Political scientists have theorized that, in the face of physical, economic, and social vulnerability, voters seek safety in the form of leaders who promise to take decisive action to deliver relief. One study of elections in India found that voters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387811000502 - punish incumbents when it floods —unless the incumbents respond vigorously to the disaster.
DJ, bad leaders create crises...still get a lot of votes. Climate-denial is popular-"there is no problem"...even I would love to believe that...Only it does NOT solve real problems...
Climate (pandemics is related to climate collapse) needs a GLOBAL answer...It may be one of the "motors" behind BRICS+....Countries kept poor by the west did see a lot more climate problems-NOT being solved by that "west"...A.o. China and India did see lots of flooding AND drought...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 08 Nov 2024 at 10:56pm
https://english.elpais.com/technology/2024-11-09/why-is-ai-unable-to-predict-disasters-like-spains-flash-flooding-in-time.html - https://english.elpais.com/technology/2024-11-09/why-is-ai-unable-to-predict-disasters-like-spains-flash-flooding-in-time.html or https://english.elpais.com/technology/2024-11-09/why-is-ai-unable-to-predict-disasters-like-spains-flash-flooding-in-time.html ;
The technology’s ability to forecast floods is limited by the poor quality of data and the irregular behavior of weather events such as a DANA
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already capable of https://english.elpais.com/health/2024-10-05/cern-trains-ai-models-to-revolutionize-cancer-treatment.html - identifying tumors from thousands of images, performing precise surgical operations, discovering new antibiotics and https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2023-09-20/google-ai-identifies-millions-of-protein-mutations-capable-of-causing-disease.html - proteins , analyzing market trends, and optimizing industrial processes, among numerous other applications. Yet, when it comes to adverse phenomena like floods — the most destructive natural disasters after earthquakes and tsunamis — its technological prowess falls short.
Over the past two decades, floods have impacted 2.5 billion people, claimed the lives of a quarter of a million individuals, and caused an estimated $936 billion in damages, according to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) from the Catholic University of Louvain in Brussels. Despite the focus of technological giants and global institutions, developments to predict and mitigate floods remain ineffective. Why is that the case?
“Existing climate models aren’t very good for certain extreme weather events, Heatwaves in Europe are, for example, increasing much faster in the real world compared to what the models tell us should happen,” Dim Coumou, a climate expert at the University of Amsterdam, told https://projects.research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/en/horizon-magazine/fighting-extreme-weather-extreme-computing-power - Horizon magazine. “It’s important to forecast extremes so we can have early warnings.”
DJ, You can not combine IPCC-politics of denial with reality...So if real temperature may be 2C+ one should expect 15% more rain...but the IPCC"story" is 1,4C+...so not that much rain...
-"Rafael" https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023635.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023635.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023635.shtml?cone#contents did NOT go for the US...is getting weaker high speed-may reach the south of Mexico later in the coming week...Even with the best data/models weather/climate is very complex...
More rain in Spain, snow in Saudi Arabia !!!, "wildfires" in the US...
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/11/sea-ice-alert.html - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/11/sea-ice-alert.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/11/sea-ice-alert.html ;
The image shows Arctic sea ice extent from October 14 to November 11, a period during which Arctic sea ice extent growth was slow in 2016, 2019 and 2020. The red line shows 2024 extent through November 5, 2024, when growth in Arctic sea ice extent was slow too, which is worrying, since El Niño conditions were prominent in 2016 and 2019, whereas La Niña conditions were prominent in October 2024 through November 5, 2024. Higher than usual temperatures during El Niño years typically slow down Arctic sea ice extent growth at this time of year. It is worrying for slow growth to occur during La Niña conditions in 2024.
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Global sea ice typically reaches its annual maximum extent around this time of year, as Arctic sea ice expands in extent. On November 3, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.15 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below the 2023 extent at this time of year.
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More than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 for 16 consecutive months
The image below, created with https://data.giss.nasa.gov/ - NASA data through October 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for 16 consecutive months. The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.
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Note that the above temperature anomalies are not calculated from pre-industrial, in this case they are calculated from 1903-1924. When using a https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html - pre-industrial base, the anomalies will be higher.
DJ Ice is keeping this planet at a certain temperature...decrease of ice is increase of warming...Is that a problem ?
If you do not need food, do not care about floods, drought, wild fires...NO...no problem...this planet may be better of without humans...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 12 Nov 2024 at 12:02am
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-wins-appeal-against-landmark-dutch-climate-ruling-2024-11-12/ - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-wins-appeal-against-landmark-dutch-climate-ruling-2024-11-12/ or https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-wins-appeal-against-landmark-dutch-climate-ruling-2024-11-12/ ;
AMSTERDAM, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Oil and gas company Shell https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/SHEL.L - on Tuesday won its appeal against a landmark climate ruling in the Netherlands, which in 2021 ordered the oil and gas company to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The appeals court in The Hague dismissed the entire ruling, saying Shell was already on its way to meet required targets for its own emissions, and it was unclear if demands on it to reduce emissions caused by the use of its products would help the fight against climate change.
The original ruling had ordered Shell to cut its absolute carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, including those caused by the use of its products.
The court did agree with the climate activists that brought the case in 2019 that Shell has an obligation to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to protect people from global warming.
DJ, Velancia-Spain is expecting more floods...Polar (sea)ice is decreasing-so global temperatures keep going up...
Climate action is "presented as terrorism" by neo-fascist governments...
DJ-A choice could be to "accept collapse"...people need to learn the hard way...The other side of that view is climate damage already be that major humans can not undo most of it...
But "since most of the people" do not want to know the facts...simply do not care...we go on on this global Titanic...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Nov 2024 at 1:19am
https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ ;
Storm Forecast Valid: Wed 13 Nov 2024 06:00 to Thu 14 Nov 2024 06:00 UTC Issued: Tue 12 Nov 2024 11:32 Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued across the Malaga/Valencia area mainly for heavy to excessive rain.
Surrounding level 1 areas and level 1 areas over the Tyrrhenian Sea and atop Greece were issued for heavy rain with isolated extreme amounts. In addition an isolated tornado risk exists mainly along the coasts.
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DISCUSSION
... Spain ...
Pattern recognition points to another event, which could support high impacts on a regional scale. Despite its more western placement to the October event, it comes close to the upper vortex' position of the 57 event. In any case, extreme rainfall amounts on a local scale are once again forecast along parts of the S and E coast of Spain.
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 ;
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms continue in associated with a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of Haiti during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_geps_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_geps_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_geps_latest.png
"Sara" could move towards the US...very likely as a weaker then cat 3 "system"...but it also depends on the speed with wich the system can move...Gulf-of-Mexico water is cooler..still a major hurricane moving high speed will not loose a lot of strength...
"Rafael" did NOT follow "the models"...so-this time of year hurricanes even get less predictable...
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Of course "politics" can stick to "keeping under 1,5C" lies by lifting pre-industrial baselines...Climate does not follow political lies...
DJ
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 13 Nov 2024 at 10:03pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ DJ-Tropical Tidbits also following several storms in/near East Asia...
Still named "nineteen"-soon to become "Sara" https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054319.shtml?cone#contents - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054319.shtml?cone#contents or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054319.shtml?cone#contents
is expected to move over Yucatan...maybe even into Mexico...May bring a lot of rain in the region-however since the population -at present- (tourism) is limited-the damage may stay limited...
However-like "Rafael" also "Sara" may be hard to predict...Staying some time over warm/hot water=stronger storm...Then moving high speed over colder water could still see "a lot of rain" moving into the US...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_intensity_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_intensity_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_intensity_latest.png DJ-Models now calculate "Sara" may lose a lot of strength over Mexico...So maybe a cat 2 as maximum...NOT the cat-4 "potential"...Again-by now storms can be very unpredictable...
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https://www.estofex.org/ - https://www.estofex.org/ or https://www.estofex.org/ More heavy rain expected in the south and east of Spain...Deathtoll of the october 30-31 flood now at 223 with still people missing...
DJ-The basic point is "two realities";
-Politics sticking to the lie "we are still under 1,5C warming"...using a 1900 baseline-10 year average...DJ-"If I had a billion € I would be a billionaire"....
-Non-sold science; warming may be 2,76 C+ by now looking at 1700-1750 baseline...
The extreme weather events, polar ice melt etc. fits in the non-sold science story..."Politics" hates science...history etc...
"Living with the virus" is another "political reality" public disaster...Saving the economy by destroying the world is crazy...however also the "new normal"...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 14 Nov 2024 at 10:56pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ;
.SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_gefs_latest.png - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_gefs_latest.png or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_gefs_latest.png
DJ, "Sara" may re-enter the Gulf-regain tropical storm strength after becoming a (flood bringing) depression over Honduras/Mexico. It could bring rain to the US but very likely "worse scenario's" (up to cat.4) are not very likely...
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DJ- https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;4.8;5&l=gust&t=20241119/1800 - https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;4.8;5&l=gust&t=20241119/1800 or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;4.8;5&l=gust&t=20241119/1800 has a depression 957 hpa north of NL...bringing severe storm/rain or snow ? tuesday november 19 over NW Europe...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-01-29-hurricane-surface-pressure-damage-potential-wind - https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-01-29-hurricane-surface-pressure-damage-potential-wind or https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-01-29-hurricane-surface-pressure-damage-potential-wind ...would translate to a cat.3 storm...
https://www.buienradar.nl/wereldwijd/europa/7daagse - https://www.buienradar.nl/wereldwijd/europa/7daagse or https://www.buienradar.nl/wereldwijd/europa/7daagse ....
Crazy weather...
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 16 Nov 2024 at 8:26am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE Dr. Gilbz;
Climate scientists react to Trump | ft. https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateAdam - @ClimateAdam
Donald Trump has won re-election in the USA. But what does it mean for climate change worldwide? I discuss climate science, climate policy, and Trump's anti-science agenda with the fabulous https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateAdam - @ClimateAdam .
Contents:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=0s - 00:00 - I'm back!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=56s - 00:56 - Trump's "liquid gold" addiction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=143s - 02:23 - "Clean" coal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=250s - 04:10 - Climate-denier-in-chief
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=340s - 05:40 - 12 years to save the planet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=380s - 06:20 - Sea level rise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=450s - 07:30 - It's weather, stoopid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=537s - 08:57 - Trump hates Paris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=671s - 11:11 - ...And the "deep state"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=757s - 12:37 - Project 2025
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=855s - 14:15 - The Donald vs. D/Misinformation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=978s - 16:18 - How to help
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDd6xzUbKHE&t=1040s - 17:20 - A look ahead
DJ, Dr. Gilbz in my view is very conservative/on the safe side on climate change/collapse. Still the elected führer of the American people trump-the lunatic "knows best"...as long as there is snow there can not be climate collapse....
DJ-Like in pandemics-learning the hard way...may cost a few billion human lives " but who cares"....
Why don't we discuss the fact that Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos & Larry Ellison own more wealth than the bottom HALF of Americans?
Part of the answer is that the people who own the media are doing phenomenally well. They aren't interested in highlighting massive levels of inequality.
A new study finds that up to 91% of planetary boundary breaching can be attributed to the top 20% of global consumers.
There is no such thing as sustainability without expropriating the rich.
DJ, so the rich "fight climate change" by buying the "best politicians, media, science-for sale"...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19986 - https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19986 or https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.19986 ;
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap.
The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.
DJ, "in a democracy we vote on problems...if the majority does not see a problem as a problem the problem is solved"...trump, wilders, most (western) politicians are for sale/bought...Climate collapse=pandemics...
Maybe people vote for idiots because they know we are very deep in lots of problems ?
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 17 Nov 2024 at 10:59pm
LANDFALL: The meteorologically unthinkable has happened today in the Philippines. For the 4TH time in only 10 DAYS, the nation has been hit directly by a Typhoon—and this was the strongest of them all. Category 5 Super Typhoon https://x.com/hashtag/ManYi?src=hashtag_click - #ManYi ( https://x.com/hashtag/PepitoPH?src=hashtag_click - #PepitoPH ) has just made a devastating landfall over the island of Catanduanes, with violent sustained winds of ~160 mph (260 kph) and a core pressure likely in the mid/upper 920s mbar, becoming the first Category 5 Typhoon to strike the Philippines since Super Typhoon Goni (Rolly) tore through this very same region in 2020. Potentially catastrophic destruction may be ongoing on the island right now. This is a truly terrifying sight.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Sara#Impact - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Sara#Impact or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Sara#Impact
DJ, Extreme weather-outcome of climate collapse-killing lots of poor people that did NOT cause the problem...
The heavy rains that have fallen in recent weeks in the Namibia Desert in Africa have caused one of the most spectacular natural phenomena, the flowering of millions of lilies that for tens of kilometers have covered the sandy soil that has dried completely for three years.
DJ, snow/rain in deserts (Saudi Arabia, Sahara, Namibia) may increase groundwater levels..."boost oases"...
Spain-
Producers expect 'expect thousands of hectares of citrus, persimmons, vegetables, vines, and other crops to have been lost'
Flooding followed drought over the past year that 'left farmland so dry that it can’t absorb excess water'
DJ, however in general climate collapse is destroying food production/logistics=increasing excess deaths, famines, pandemics...
A potentially record-breaking bomb cyclone will intensify over the North Pacific Tuesday night, with pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane (~940 mb), producing wave heights up to 70 feet (21 m)
A formidable storm will threaten B.C. this week with gusty winds that could knock out power and lead to ferry delays and cancellations. https://x.com/hashtag/BCStorm?src=hashtag_click - #BCStorm
DJ, Also Europe may see extreme weather this week...
https://x.com/PaulHBeckwith -
Posted By: Dutch Josh 2
Date Posted: 19 Nov 2024 at 2:04am
By far, this is the most important flaw in the Paris Agreement, and yet scientists talk about 1.5C as if they know what they're talking about.
"surprisingly, Betts says, nowhere in the Paris Agreement does it define how to measure the Earth's increasing temperature."
link; https://www.npr.org/2024/11/18/nx-s1-5183222/1-5-celsius-global-warming-climate-change-cop29 - https://www.npr.org/2024/11/18/nx-s1-5183222/1-5-celsius-global-warming-climate-change-cop29 or https://www.npr.org/2024/11/18/nx-s1-5183222/1-5-celsius-global-warming-climate-change-cop29 ;
The World Meteorological Organization reported this month that 2024 is likely to average 1.55 C hotter than the late 1800s, the first time a full-year average will pass the 1.5 level. Several one-month intervals have also surpassed that level in recent years.
This month, researchers from the U.K. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01580-5 - Both findings have ignited concern amongst scientists and climate policy experts. But neither means that the 1.5 C goal has yet been surpassed, formally.
Because surprisingly, Betts says, nowhere in the Paris Agreement does it define how to measure the Earth's increasing temperature.
The authoritative science organization known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has long held that a single month, or even a whole year, of temperatures averaging above 1.5 C isn't sufficient to demonstrate that level of warming.
That's because temperature rise doesn't happen smoothly. Even without global warming, some years are hotter or colder than others. Weather patterns like El Nino can skew some years hotter than expected, for example. To account for that natural temperature wobble, the IPCC suggests looking at averages over a 20-year period. That requires looking backwards at years of global average temperature data, like the WMO report, while also looking forward using climate models to predict future rise.
Using those methods, scientists calculate that https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/2625/2024/ - But there's a problem, says Nathan Gillett, a climate scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada: that approach is inherently backward-looking. Even if warming progresses past 1.5 C, "We won't be able to say that until after we passed it," he says.
That approach could obscure the true amount of warming, says Andrew Jarvis, a climate scientist at Lancaster University and an author of the new https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01580-5 - Even using those metrics, Jarvis says, it's likely "we're going to exceed one and a half degrees in the next ten years." The only way to prevent that increase, he says, is to implement significantly more aggressive climate action immediately.
Is staying below 1.5 C possible?
Ryna Cui, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland, echoes that sentiment.
"Even with a really rapid pace, [temperatures] may not be able to peak below 1.5," Cui says. "I do think we are looking for an overshoot," a period of time in which global temperatures surpass 1.5 C warming before coming back down below that value.
DJ, if extreme weather events are an indication-we are over 1,5C pre-industrial...