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| Mpox Discussion Forum: Latest News & Information Regarding the Clade 1b Mpox Virus |
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| Topic - Corona/CoViD-news Posted: 30 Aug 2024 at 2:15am By Dutch Josh 2 |
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DJ-A lot of countries face CoViD problems;
 < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> How many people in the U.S. have been infected this wave?
24.3% (about 1 in 4) so far if counting from the trough of May 2.
19.3% (about 1 in 5) so far if counting from entering ‘wave territory’ of 500,000 daily infections on Jun 23.
How many will be infected?
Since we’re about halfway through the wave, one could assume the total wave impact will be about double the current estimate (38-48%). From ‘wave entry’ to the trough between the summer and winter waves, I’d estimate 39.7% infected. However, some modelers would estimate lower, and some higher. In my view, it would be reasonable to say that an estimated 1/3 to 1/2 of Americans get infected this wave, acknowledging uncertainty across models.
Of course, “your future hasn’t been written yet. No one’s has.” If the CDC held a press conference with well-fitting N95s and spent 3 minutes explaining wastewater surveillance, many infections could be avoided. A quite negligible impact of a CDC press conference would still mean 1 million fewer infections.
Moreover, families can substantially reduce risk through multi-layered mitigation. Vax up when available. Use serial testing when symptomatic, exposed, for gatherings, or for purposes of asymptomatic surveillance. Wear a well-fitting high-quality mask (N95, KN95, KF94, elastomeric). When someone is sick, use the strictest criteria of the CDC and FDA of requiring 3 negative rapid tests on separate days before ending isolation. Hold meetings virtually and outdoors. Increase indoor air quality by keeping the HVAC 'on' (not 'auto') and using HEPA and DIY air purifiers. Donate masks, tests, and air purifiers to those in your community. Set house rules for precautions, and stick to them. 1/2 to 2/3 of people in the U.S. will NOT get infected this wave, and that might as well be you.
These statistics are based on the PMC Model (http://pmc19.com/data) and underlying model assumptions noted in the Technical Appendix.
I would also recommend checking out the World Health Network's new model, which is a hair more pessimistic than PMC's in terms of recent case estimates (https://whn.global/estimation-of-infections-based-on-wastewater-data-us/…). - < aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-label="More" role="" ="-175oi2r r-1777fci r-bt1l66 r-bztko3 r-lrvibr r-1loqt21 r-1ny4l3l" -testid="caret" ="" style="text-align: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-family: inherit; align-items: stretch; border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: black; display: flex; flex-basis: auto; flex-direction: column; flex-shrink: 0; list-style: none; margin: 0px; min-height: 20px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px; : relative; : 0; overflow: ; justify-: center; cursor: pointer; outline-style: none; user-: none;"> PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 26, 2024
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We're in uncharted territory during the back-to-school period.
1.2 million people in the U.S. are getting infected per day.
1 in 41 people (2.5%) are actively infectious.DJ, Vaccines may limit damage after catching CoViD...If the present wave would get 100 million US citizens infected (an OPTIMISTIC !!! scenario) and 10% would get long term health issues this wave would result in TEN MILLION more US Long CoViD cases... No doubt "economic damage" runs in the billions per year-however most of the costs ends up with those getting infected...increasing poverty...(because the poor suffer much more risks !). - Above CoViD lots of other diseases are increasing...Maybe when the labor-"market" crashes "politics" may "react"...DJ-The "migration discussion" in many countries could be linked...Replacing long CoViD workers with migrant workers-untill they also get infected/ill... Politics-for-sale working for a donor-class is self destructive...
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