Post Reply - Climate

   DJ; "Debby" did/does bring heavy rain to Canada-soon will move into the Atlantic. It will affect weathersystems resulting in "hot air" moving to NW Europe monday/tuesday..very strong thinderstorms (and flooding) following it...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Debby ;
Rainfall impacted nations across the Caribbean, especially Cuba and Puerto Rico.^[114]^[115]^[116] States of emergency were declared for the states of Florida, Georgia, and North and South Carolina ahead of the storm. Heavy rains fell as a result of the storm moving slowly, with accumulations peaking near 20 inches (51 cm) of rain near Sarasota, Florida as of August 7. Seven fatalities have been attributed to the storm so far, and preliminary damage reports are estimated to be at least US$2 billion.^[117]
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Beryl or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Beryl ;
A total of 64 fatalities have been confirmed, and preliminary damage estimates are more than US$5.06 billion.^[98]^[99]
DJ, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 "Ernesto" is on its way to the US...

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html ;
The current temperature is higher than the temperature at this time of year in 2023, which is remarkable given that we were in an El Niño back in August 2023, while a transition to La Niña around August-October 2024 is expected, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.
-
IPCC keeps downplaying the danger

Note that neither the 1903-1924 base (image top) nor the 1991-2020 base (above image) are pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past thirteen months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.

Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps downplaying the danger, e.g. by claiming that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold.
-
The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.

The IPCC has not only failed to warn about the size of the temperature rise from pre-industrial, the IPCC has also failed to warn about developments contributing to such a rise. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, the July 2024 temperature anomaly was huge over and around much of Antarctica. 
-
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).
DJ, Like pandemics "politics/experst for sale" simply deny the problem...only making matters much worse much faster...

"When your house is collapsing on top of you-you can try to deny it is happening...try to survive and get out of the ruins and learn yo have been fooling yourself !"