https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5qPFkkzeY or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5qPFkkzeY ; (WPDE-ABC15)
Where is Debby headed next? South Carolina could see historic flooding event
[Monday] Debby a Severe Flooding Threat to Southeast U.S.
DJ, Warm ocean waters could see "Debby" becoming a hurricane (cat 1 most likely) again...however rain from "Debby" may cool coastal waters and reduce energy for regaining strength...
High pressure area's over the Atlantic an d central US slow down "Debby"-resulting in crazy amounts of rain over a limited area for a few days...
The ABC-weatherman comes up with earlier South Carolina floods-but rivers were already at high levels before the storms moved in...
The strong winds may follow the rain...storm surge another factor...DJ-also the direction of the winds matter...it could push river water against an influx of sea water resulting in strong flooding in low lying areas...But if the wind pushes river water westward/away from the Ocean a storm surge may be limited in its effects...
TT also looking at GFS-US and European weather models...Impossible to even make good estimates for the coming hours on where Debby may move...It could move westward again...bringing even more rain to the area where it came from...it could move east into the Atlantic earlier...if it reaches warm water and stays there longer it will get stronger...
DJ-"reality check"-so much uncertainty that model will be incorrect...
The two extremes;
-Debby may stay over land most of the time...weaken faster than expected...be low/no risk within 24-48 hours...the most optimistic scenario
-Debby could move into warm Atlantic waters, get stronger faster...maybe even become a (major ???) hurricane...before making landfall in the middle of the week (thursday ?) -in a yet unclear coastal location... Maybe even again move into the Atlantic and reach the New York City area this weekend still as a strong storm with a storm surge and lots of rain...Still a strong system early next week going into Canada via New England...
Climate aspects is warm ocean water but also crazy weather over the US..."Debby" could mix up with storms from inside the US...
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The above reminds me of the unpredictability of how diseases develop...CoViD had a few "super spreaders" in its early phase...It is impossible to say if "superspreaders" made CoViD into a pandemic...
H5N1 very likely by now spread over more species than CoViD is...But they may see "co-spread" in some species/cases...CoViD creating room for H5N1...
Like weather-climate the basic underlying factor, in pandemics "hosts" are the basics...If "hosts" are protected against diseases then -factor 3=spread simply is that limited you will not see a pandemic...
Very likely lots of -in potential pandemic risks- failed to reach enough hosts to become a global pandemic risk...Both "spread" and "hosts" were limited...
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Trying to understand "complex systems" is basic in understanding pandemics..."Lab leaks" simply do not do that job unless one has a very agressive virus/bacteria/disease...but such a disease than would spread much faster..a different pattern than we did see with CoViD or now -still- see with H5N1...
Mpox may become more agressive-certainly if it gets airborne...and than climate/weather factors matter...Floodings can spread diseases...(also via rats, mice etc. seeking dry places...Sewage ending up as a bio-hazard in open water/flooded buildings)
