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| Topic - A new pandemic Posted: 29 Mar 2025 at 3:54am By Dutch Josh 2 |
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https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/avian-flu-what-goes-around-comes-around.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/03/avian-flu-what-goes-around-comes-around.html ;
A decade ago, some experts were still bitterly divided over the impact of migratory birds on the spread of avian flu (see 2014's Bird Flu Spread: The Flyway Or The Highway?). Many conservationists had long insisted that `sick birds don't fly', and that it was illicit poultry trade that was driving the spread of the virus.
While the poultry industry undoubtedly contributed to the local spread of the virus, after the H5N8 virus crossed the Pacific in late 2014 and sparked a major North American Epizootic (see map below), the role of migratory birds became much harder to ignore. DJ, Denying the role wild animals play in spreading disease is "anti-science"... But since 2015 HPAI H5Nx viruses (both in Asia and Europe) have undergone numerous evolutionary changes, morphing from H5N8, to H5N6, and more recently to H5N1 and H5N5 subtypes. A 2016 reassortment event in Russia led to Europe's record setting H5 epizootic of 2016-2017, which also featured unusual mortality in wild birds. And unlike in North America in 2015, while avian flu reports decreased sharply over the summer of 2017 in Europe, the virus never completely disappeared. A trend which has only increased in the years since (see Ain't No Cure For the Summer Bird Flu). Over time H5 viruses have become better suited for carriage by migratory birds, have greatly increased their avian host range (see DEFRA: The Unprecedented `Order Shift' In Wild Bird H5N1 Positives In Europe & The UK), and have shown a greater affinity for infecting mammals. Over the past decade these changes have enabled the virus to spread globally, crossing both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans repeatedly (see Multiple Introductions of H5 HPAI Viruses into Canada Via both East Asia-Australasia/Pacific & Atlantic Flyways). - While the focus is on the next couple of months - after which we will hopefully have a few months respite - the reality is the virus continues to expand both its geographic and host ranges, and with that comes increased genetic diversity. In North America alone, more than 100 genotypes have been identified over the past 3 years, with new ones fully expected to emerge over time. Over the past year, four new reassortments of note have emerged:
While we can't predict what kind of changes may occur in the HPAI H5 virus over the summer - or during the Southern Hemisphere's winter - history suggests that we can expect some surprises when the virus returns next fall. A perilous pattern that we can expect to be repeated twice yearly, ad nauseum, for the foreseeable future. DJ, H5 etc. is more and more moving into (wild) mammals so the season effect may decrease-we may see an all year risk for all types of flu... Decrease of immunity (CoViD linked) will see more species show H5-like types of flu... Ignoring the mega-mix of diseases-increasingly interacting with one another is "unwise & unwelcome"....A form of tunnelvision some experts may develop... https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2025/03/articles/animals/other-animals/h5n1-influenza-in-sheep/ or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2025/03/articles/animals/other-animals/h5n1-influenza-in-sheep/ just another story of how H5N1 did find another new-unexpected-host...
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