Post Reply - Climate collapse

   https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/03/arctic-blue-ocean-event-2025.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/03/arctic-blue-ocean-event-2025.html ;Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025?
Arctic sea ice area 
Arctic sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025. 
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Arctic sea ice area was 1.28 million km² lower on March 5, 2025, compared to March 5, 2012. The comparison with the year 2012 is important, since Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest minimum in 2012. Arctic sea ice area was only 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012. 
The size of the sea ice can be measured either in extent or in area. What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Extent can include holes or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone. 

Blue Ocean Event (BOE)

A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when the size of the sea ice falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice. If the difference between 2012 and 2025 continues to be as large as it is now, there will be a Blue Ocean Event in September 2025. 
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The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by as much as 150ºC.
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Further incoming heat therefore threatens to instead reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, in turn threatening increased loss of permafrost, resulting in additional emissions,
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The danger is especially large in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), which contains huge amounts of methane and which is hit strongly by the temperature rise. The image below shows that high February 2025 sea surface temperature anomalies are present in the Arctic Ocean, including over ESAS. 
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Large abrupt methane releases will quickly deplete the oxygen in shallow waters, making it harder for microbes to break down the methane, while methane rising through waters that are shallow can enter the atmosphere very quickly.

The situation is extremely dangerous, given the vast amounts of methane present in sediments in the ESAS, given the high global warming potential (GWP) of methane immediately following its release and given that over the Arctic there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.
See also https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=4329.200#bot or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=4329.200#bot ;
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 13.68 million km2, 0.19 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

DJ, We are still in the Arctic FREEZING time...lowest sea ice expected in the Arctic (end of ?) september...

Climate collapse = pandemics...Governments do all they can to "hide reality"...Sticking to mistakes the new "normal"....

Even "good" scientists go for compromises; base line for pre-industrial 1900-10 year average (because warming would stop ???) ...