Post Reply - Climate

In 10 of the years 2006 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum

   South Pole/Antarctica;https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.4550.html#lastPost ;

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,973,019 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2024

- Extent loss on this day 21k, 74 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.88 million km2, 0.94 million km2, (7.4%) less than the 10 year average of 12.83 million km2.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,226 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  932 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,511 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  715 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  621 k MORE than 2023
- Extent is  1,808 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,982 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  81.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 65 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.98 million km2, 0.00 million km2 below the 2023 record low maximum of 16.99 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
In 10 of the years 2006 to 2023, gain from now is low enough to produce a new record low maximum

DJ, Simply means above average melt/break down of Antarctica glaciers as well...

North Pole/Arctic; https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4145.550.html#lastPost ;

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,797,546 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2024

- Extent loss on this day 161k, 49 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 112k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 6,614 k, which is 280 k, 4.4% more than the 10 year average of 6,334 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  316 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  397 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  413 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  681 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  226 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  186 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  121 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  33 k LESS than the 2010's Average
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On average 64.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 61 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2024 of 4.28 million KM2, 1.10 million KM2 above the September 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million KM2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record

DJ, lots of uncertainty on Arctic perspectives. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/both-paris-agreement-thresholds-clearly-crossed.html ;

The NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1904-1924 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past twelve months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.

Global temperatures, Sea Surface Temperature, monthly temperatures etc. all are very abnormal. 

It is more than likely climate collapse is linked to increase of pandemics. There is a correlation. 

Increase of climate collapse-already on its way-very likely means an increase of pandemic risks. The global inaction on these risks makes more pandemics more than likely. We may be just at the start of pandemic escalation...