Post Reply - Climate collapse

[ click on images to enlarge ]

   https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-downplay-the-need-for-action.html or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-downplay-the-need-for-action.html ;
Why downplay the need for action?
The 2024 global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average, according to WMO’s consolidated analysis of six datasets. 
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Differences between datasets are mainly due to the ways temperatures are measured, e.g. ERA5 measures the temperature of the air above oceans, whereas NASA and NOAA measure the surface temperature of the water, which is lower. There can also be differences in how temperatures are measured in areas with sea ice - the sea ice can be measured, or the water underneath the sea ice, or the air above the sea ice. Also, in some areas there once was sea ice that has meanwhile disappeared. Different ways of measuring things can raise the temperature record by as much as 0.2°C and even more in case of earlier years, where the margin of error is also larger. 

Importantly, the temperature rise in the above image is compared to the period 1850-1900, which is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly may already have been above the 2°C threshold in 2015, when politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged that this threshold wouldn't be crossed.

[ from earlier post ]
“Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot", UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres said: “It is important to emphasize that a single year of more than 1.5°C for a year does NOT mean that we have failed to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals, which are measured over decades rather than an individual year", WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo adds. 

However, for this argument to hold, the average anomaly would need to fall to under 1.5°C from now. Should we really have to wait for another decade or two, before a confirmation is allowed to be issued that 1.5°C has been crossed. Isn't such a mandate part of downplaying how dire the situation is, an effort to delay the necessary action? Moreover, does such a mandate make sense? 
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To illustrate this point, the above image uses NASA anomalies (blue dots) that are conservatively compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base, with data going back to 2010. The image thus shows a 30-year review period centered around January 1, 2025. Eight imaginary years of data have been added beyond existing data, extending the trend into the future (yellow dots). The wide pink trend is based on both NASA existing data and these imaginary data, jointly covering data from 2010-2032. The narrow black trend is not based on imaginary data, it is purely based on existing data, from 2010-2024, showing the potential for such a trend to eventuate when using existing (i.e. past) data only. 

In case such a trend would indeed eventuate, confirmation of the crossing of the 1.5°C threshold should NOT be delayed until all the years of a 30-year period have been entirely completed. In fact, 2°C would already be crossed early 2026. In the course of 2032, a 16°C rise would be reached, while the average anomaly for the period 2010-2032 would be higher than 3°C with still 7 years to go before the 30-year period would be completed. 

Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page. The image below shows an even steeper rise. 

[ temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added ]
If the temperature does indeed keep rising rapidly, the anomaly compared to pre-industrial may soon or already be higher than 3°C, implying that humans are already functionally extinct, especially if no decisive, comprehensive and effective action is taken.

Analysis by Shona and Bradshaw found that, due to co-extinction, global biodiversity collapse occurs at around 5°C heating, as discussed in a 2019 post with the warning that a rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026, and that humans who depend on many other species will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.

A recent study by Joseph Williamson et al. finds that many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]
One of the many mechanisms that could rapidly accelerate the temperature rise is an Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The image on the right shows that Arctic sea ice reached a record low for the time of year on January 17, 2025. 
Guy McPherson discussed the consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the video below, adding that a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control. The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth. I’m not a fan. 

DJ, My view; global temperature rise may become even more unpredictable. Methane eruptions will push up temperatures even faster....

We need "positive feedbacks" to show up-if we want Earth to remain liveable...
The 2,75C+ picture may be far more realistic then the claim of "still under 2C" looking at the kinds of weather-disasters (storm, rain records) . 