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Topic - Climate collapse
Posted: 10 Dec 2024 at 12:14am By Dutch Josh 2
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html  or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html ;

Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?


The red dots in the above image are Copernicus ERA5 global daily mean near-surface (2m) air temperature anomalies Dec. 13, 2022 through Dec. 7, 2024, compared to a 1991-2020 base (left vertical axis) and a 1901-1930 base (right vertical axis). 

The shading indicates El Niño (June 2023 up to May 2024, pink), surrounded by ENSO-neutral conditions and a short, weak La Niña (all blue). 

Two trends are added based on these data (red dots). The linear trend (black) shows a steady, rapid rise. The non-linear trend (red) better follows variations such as El Niño and sunspots, and it indicates that a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event may have started in December 2024 (in the area with the grey shading).  
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Mechanisms behind accelerated temperature rise

Recent research led by Helge Goessling suggests that global warming itself is reducing the number of low clouds, resulting in less sunlight getting reflected back into space. “If a large part of the decline in albedo is indeed due to feedbacks between global warming and low clouds, as some climate models indicate, we should expect rather intense warming in the future,” Helge Goessling warns

A Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event could be occur soon due to a number of mechanisms, including:
- a drop in albedo as a result of a reduction in lower clouds
- a drop in albedo as a result of reduction in sea ice extent
- El Niño developing in the course of 2025
- sunspots reaching a maximum in the current cycle (predicted to occur July 2025)
- less ocean heat reaching deeper parts of the ocean as a result of slowing down of AMOC
- reductions in sulfur aerosols combined with an increase in black carbon and brown carbon as civilization grinds to a halt

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-second-warmest-november-globally-confirms-expectation-2024-warmest-year  or https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-second-warmest-november-globally-confirms-expectation-2024-warmest-year ;

Global Temperatures

  • November 2024 was the second-warmest November globally, after November 2023, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 14.10°C, 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average for November.      
  • November 2024 was 1.62°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 16th month in a 17-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels*. 
  • The year-to-date (January–November 2024) global-average temperature anomaly is 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.14°C warmer than the same period in 2023. At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record and more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level according to ERA5.

DJ, Of course "pre-industrial" treshold/10 year averages is playing with statistics...The extreme weather events may indicate real temperature rise may be 2,5C+...

The warmer it gets-the faster further temperature increases go...

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