Post Reply - Climate

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 Nov 2024 06:00 to Thu 14 Nov 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Nov 2024 11:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued across the Malaga/Valencia area mainly for heavy to excessive rain.

Surrounding level 1 areas and level 1 areas over the Tyrrhenian Sea and atop Greece were issued for heavy rain with isolated extreme amounts. In addition an isolated tornado risk exists mainly along the coasts.

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DISCUSSION

... Spain ...

Pattern recognition points to another event, which could support high impacts on a regional scale. Despite its more western placement to the October event, it comes close to the upper vortex' position of the 57 event. In any case, extreme rainfall amounts on a local scale are once again forecast along parts of the S and E coast of Spain.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in associated with a broad area 
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.  
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance 
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.  The 
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next 
week.  Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea 
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of 
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.