A new pandemic

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Posted: Yesterday at 3:13am

https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/29/number-flu-cases-netherlands-increases-now-official-epidemic or https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/29/number-flu-cases-netherlands-increases-now-official-epidemic ;

The number of flu cases has risen quickly in the Netherlands in the last week. Numbers provided by general practitioners confirm that the Netherlands currently has an official flu epidemic. This was the second week in a row that the number of registered flu cases was above the determined limit.

The health institution Nivel reported last week that 76 people per 100,000 residents went to the general practitioner with flu-like symptoms. This is a significant increase compared to the previous week when 58 in 100,000 had these symptoms. The limit of an epidemic when it comes to the flu is 53.

Most people who have the flu do not go to the general practitioner, but there is still a minority of vulnerable people who do. Therefore, these numbers are a good indicator of the spread of the flu virus.

General practitioners do not see the flu epidemic as anything especially noteworthy. “They are used to it, it is a part of it,” said a spokesperson for the Landelijke Huisartsenvereniging (LHV), which is the national association for general practitioners. Issues could arise if doctors were to become ill from the virus. “There are already staff shortages, so this would become noticeable very quickly.”

There are also hardly any staff to replace sick teachers in the education sector. This has been an issue in the larger cities, where teacher shortages are a prevalent issue. The flu wave has come during the exam period.

https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/29/medication-shortages-linked-serious-incidents-dutch-study-finds or https://nltimes.nl/2025/01/29/medication-shortages-linked-serious-incidents-dutch-study-finds ;Medication shortages in the Netherlands have led to serious incidents, including irreversible harm to patients, according to findings published in Pharmaceutisch Weekblad. The publication reported results from a preliminary study by the College ter Beoordeling van Geneesmiddelen (CBG) and a master’s student at the University of Groningen.

DJ, https://www.nivel.nl/nl/zorg-en-ziekte-in-cijfers/griep-centraal or https://www.nivel.nl/nl/zorg-en-ziekte-in-cijfers/griep-centraal ;A(H1N1)pdm09 en type A(H3N2).Also B-flu in NL-low CoViD numbers...

H5N1 still rare in NL-so far. So the chance of H5N1 mixing with another type of flu in a host in NL is "limited". However imported new flu-or CoViD- variants are a growing risk.

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Martha Young- JD, MBA, N95-clean the air:

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Posted: 22 hours 7 minutes ago at 8:42am

Rick Bright reposted

@mryoung151

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And just like that “low risk” can go to “widespread” with hard to calculate risk since ALL of govt health agencies offline- Bird flu now ‘widespread' in Massachusetts, officials warn

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/bird-flu-now-widespread-in-massachusetts-officials-warn/3616175/ or https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/bird-flu-now-widespread-in-massachusetts-officials-warn/3616175/ ;

State environmental and health officials said Wednesday that bird flu is suspected to be the cause of death in cases of both wild and domestic birds in several Massachusetts communities.

Rick Bright

@RickABright

Elegant research paper, showing precursors to H5 immunity might exist in some people. However, caution to not over interpret this as pre-existing immunity, or neutralizing immunity. But clearly a great start for further research to identity & determine relevance. Great work!

DJ, The H1N1 may have an N1 part close to the N1 in H5N1....

Human US cases of H5N1 may no longer be reported..."living with the virus/do not test do not tell" insanity....

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/preprint-detection-of-low-pre-existing.html or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/01/preprint-detection-of-low-pre-existing.html ;

Those born prior to the mid-1960s were almost certainly first exposed to Group 1 flu viruses (H1N1 or H2N2)

Those born after 1968 and before 1977 would have been exposed to Group 2 (H3N2)

After 1977, both Group 1 and 2 viruses co-circulated, meaning the first exposure could have been to either one.

We've also seen some research that suggests exposure to H1N1 (or the seasonal flu shot) may provide some limited protection, since the the NA gene segment in seasonal H1N1 virus is antigenically similar to the NA in the clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus

A major caveat is, most of the studies we've seen over the past year have focused on the `bovine' B3.13 genotype of H5N1, which is just one of scores of H5 (subtypes/genotypes) circulating around the globe. It has been uncharacteristically mild in humans (compared to historical H5 strains), and their results may not apply across the board.

But even if they do apply, the levels of immunity being reported in these studies have been quite limited. All of which brings us to a new preprint, published this week in the BioRxiv, published by researchers at the University of Cologne, Germany.

They describe finding `low but detectable' levels of pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 B3.13 genotype, but are unable to predict how much protection (if any) they might afford.
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As we've discussed before (see here and here), the oft-quoted 50% CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of H5N1 is probably greatly exaggerated, as it is based only on cases sick enough to be hospitalized, and countries with better medical facilities (like Egypt) saw far fewer fatalities.

But even a more reasonable 2%-5% CFR would represent a public health crisis unlike anything we've seen in the modern era.

So any advantage - even a small one - provided by childhood HA imprinting, pre-existing memory B cells, prior influenza infection, or seasonal flu vaccination, could end up having a huge impact.

DJ, NO ROOM for wishfull thinking-risks are to high !!!

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Posted: 20 hours 49 minutes ago at 10:00am

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/1006219-uganda-outbreak-of-sudan-ebola-virus-disease-confirmed-in-kampala-ministry-of-health-january-30-2025 or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/1006219-uganda-outbreak-of-sudan-ebola-virus-disease-confirmed-in-kampala-ministry-of-health-january-30-2025 ;

“The confirmed case, designated as the index case, is a 32-year-old male nurse, an employee of Mulago National Referral Hospital who initially developed fever-like symptoms and sought treatment at multiple health facilities, including Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Saidina Abubakar Islamic Hospital in Matugga in Wakiso District, and Mbale Regional Referral Hospital in Mbale City, as well as from a traditional healer” ~ @DianaAtwine
...
The patient presented with a five-day history of high fever, chest pain, and difficulty in breathing, which later progressed to unexplained bleeding from multiple body sites. The patient experienced multi-organ failure and succumbed to the illness at Mulago National Referral Hospital on 29th January 2025. Post-mortem samples confirmed Sudan Ebola Virus Disease. Currently, no other health care worker or patient on the ward has presented with signs or symptoms of Ebola.
...
Currently the Ministry has;
I. Activated the Incident Management Team and dispatched Rapid Response Teams to both Mbale City and Saidina Abubakar Islamic Hospital in Matugga

II. Contact listing; 44 contacts have so far been listed (30 Health workers and patients from Mulago,11 Family Members of the deceased, and 4 health workers from Saidina Abubakar Islamic Hospital in Matugga)
...
III. The deceased will be accorded a safe and dignified burial to prevent spread of the disease IV.

Vaccination of all contacts of the deceased against EVD is set to commence immediately targeting contacts of the deceased.

Outbreak Updates

@outbreakupdates

A health worker at Uganda’s Mulago Hospital has died from Ebola. 44 high-risk contacts now under surveillance, including family members, other health workers, and a traditional healer.

DJ, more cases in other parts of Africa ? (Marburg-Tanzania ?)...

As a reminder; Uganda is north of Rwanda/east of DRC...

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